Roto Riteup: July 10, 2023

‘Til all Skenes-Skenes, melon farmers:

With the first pick in the #MLBDraft, the @Pirates select RHP Paul Skenes from LSU. pic.twitter.com/IDaDmdV5Eq

— MLB (@MLB) July 9, 2023

If the stuff ends up half as good as the stache, we’re clearly looking at baseball’s next big thing – I mean, just imagine the package the Pirates will get for him in four years!

On the Agenda:

1. News and Notes
2. Bumps and Bruises
3. Streaming Pitchers – Psych!
4. Some Good Ol’ Fashioned Dong Gambling

News and Notes

Yordan Alvarez (oblique) will “for sure” start a rehab assignment shortly after the ASB according to Houston GM Dana Brown. Yainer Diaz (mostly at DH) and Corey Julks mostly in left field) have been the biggest playing time beneficiaries since Alvarez went on the IL on June 9 – Julks has slashed .333/.419/.427 over 86 PA, with 1 HR, 13 R, 7 RBI, and 7 SB, while Diaz has slashed .255/.267/.510, with 7 HR, 9 R, 14 RBI, and 0 SB.

Brown also said that Jose Altuve (oblique) is about a week behind but is healing faster than expected. That ticking you hear is Mauricio Dubón’s fantasy value about to run out (again).

As previously planned, Xander Bogaerts received a cortisone shot in his left wrist following Sunday’s game. This isn’t a new issue but hopefully, the combination of high-powered inflammatories and a few days off for the ASB will be enough to get him back on a strong fantasy track – Bogaerts is slashing .253/.339/.392 for the season, all of which are his lowest marks since his 2014 rookie season, and is currently the #14 SS on the Razzball player rater, currently sitting behind the likes of Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 and Ezequiel Duran, neither of whom were drafted in the top-100 of 2023 drafts.

The Dodgers optioned Miguel Vargas to Triple-A on Sunday, bringing a merciful end to what had been an ever-increasing brutal slump. Vargas started June with a little six-game hit streak but since breaking it on June 9, he’s gone just 5-for-63, slashing a Hamilton-esqe .079/.221/.175, with a .189 wOBA and 14(!) wRC+.

Max Fried (forearm) allowed one hit and walked two batters in a 1.1 IP (35 pitches) rehab outing at Triple-A on Sunday. Fried threw 15 fastballs, averaging 94.4 mph, topping out at 96.4 mph, a good sign for his current arm strength. While likely needing at least two more rehab starts, Fried is tracking for a return around the last week of July.

Brandon Woodruff (shoulder) threw a successful 25-pitch bullpen session on Sunday and will throw another on Thursday. He’s still a while away from a rehab assignment but this is a pretty positive step after his throwing program had been shut down earlier due to less progress than expected.

Nestor Cortes Jr. (shoulder) was “totally pain free” during a 20-pitch sim game on Sunday and is scheduled for another on Thursday. This is certainly a positive step but keep in mind that Cortes is on the 60-day IL and won’t be eligible to return until the first week of August.

Bumps and Bruises

Kyle Freeland dislocated his right shoulder on Sunday diving for a grounder, allowing just one run in 6.1 IP prior to the injury. There is no timetable currently but given that it’s his non-throwing shoulder, his return might have to do more with pain management than healing in a best-case (non-surgical) scenario. Counterpoint: dislocated shoulders really, really hurt.

Tommy Pham was removed from Sunday’s game after injuring his groin in the first inning and will undergo imaging later today to assess the seriousness. Pham has been one of fantasy’s hottest hitters in summer, hitting his way up to second in the Mets order by slashing .319/.375/.560 since the start of June, with 6 HR, 18 R, 20 RBI, and 5 SB. No word on whether or not he was just trying to get himself some extra fantasy football prep time with NFL training camps about to start.

Streaming Pitchers – Psych!

What? I very clearly labeled this a psych situation.

Some Good Ol’ Fashioned Dong Gambling

Here are the current odds (courtesy of DraftKings) for the winner of tonight’s Home Run Derby:

Pete Alonso: +300
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: +450
Luis Robert Jr.: +500
Julio Rodriguez: +550
Adolis García: +600
Mookie Betts: +900
Randy Arozarena: +900
Adley Rutschman: +1600

And here are the opening matchups:

1. Luis Robert Jr. (-220) vs. 8. Adley Rutschman (+175)
2. Pete Alonso (-185) vs. 7. Julio Rodriguez (+155)
3. Adolis García (-150) vs. 6. Randy Arozarena (+120) *
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-185) vs. 5. Mookie Betts (+155)

*AKA the “They Both Used to Be Cardinals Bowl”. In case you were wondering, St. Louis received a total of Matthew Libertore, Edgardo Rodriguez, and Tink Hence for Arozarena and cash considerations for García. I’m 100% not bitter about it.

For those wading into a lil’ gambling, let’s check in on a few notable power numbers for the participants, using a totally official and definitely not arbitrary endpoint to split things into April/May and June/July:

 Nicklaus Gaut’s Triple Platinum Five-Star Algorithmic Locks of the Century:

Longest HR: Luis Robert Jr.

O/U 485.5 feet for Longest HR: Under

O/U 1.5 awkward shots of Pete Alonso trying to meditate while knowing there is a camera five feet away watching his every move: Over

First Round: Robert Jr. over Rutschman, Alonso over Rodríguez, Arozarena over García, Betts over Guerrero Jr.

Second Round: Robert Jr. over Arozarena, Betts over Alonso

Overall Winner: Mookie Betts over Luis Robert Jr.