Roto Riteup: July 10, 2017
I don’t understand why Major League Baseball doesn’t do more to promote the Future’s Game. If you missed it, this was my favorite part:
This @brent_honeywell screwball is #nasty pic.twitter.com/drYJbCMiVF
— Ryan Bass (@Ry_Bass) July 9, 2017
With this being the All-Star Break, unless there is big news, I will be doing a few more off the wall type things as you will see below. Heck, if it doesn’t go well, then you guys can campaign for them to replace me while I am on vacation next week. (Please don’t, I’ve got kids to feed.) Hope you enjoy!
On the Agenda:
1. Trade Rumors
2. Various News and Notes
3. Completely Ridiculous Home Run Derby Predictions!
Trade Rumors
According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the New York Yankees are making a push to acquire Justin Bour. Bour had a fantastic first half hitting .289 with 20 home runs. His left-handed bat would play nicely in New York where the Yankees have played ten different first basemen in the first half. In the last few days there has been a lot of talk about the Marlins completely dismantling their team, so it would not be surprising to see Bour among others get moved in the next two to three weeks. Rumors have included David Phelps, Martin Prado, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Giancarlo Stanton as players that could be moved.
The Yankees have also shown interest in veteran southpaw Brad Hand according to the New York Post. Hand would most certainly lose value in New York due to park factors and there being virtually no saves chances behind Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances. The Padres are shopping Hand as well as Brandon Maurer and Trevor Cahill according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN. NL only players may want to speculate on Ryan Buchter and Phil Maton who would likely be the first two in line for saves if San Diego parted ways with both Maurer and Hand.
According to Jim Salisbury, the Phillies will explore trading first baseman Tommy Joseph at the trade deadline. Joseph has hit .252/.313/.466 this season with fifeteen home runs. The (almost) 26-year-old was acquired by the Phillies in the Hunter Pence deal, but took a long time to get to the Majors after dealing with concussion issues in the minor which eventually forced him off of the catching position. It will be interesting to see what kind of trade market Joseph has, as there doesn’t appear to be a large market for right-handed first basemen. He could be a fit in St.Louis if the Cardinals feel they can potentially contend in the Central or possibly in Colorado if the Rockies are unconvinced that David Dahl will be ready anytime soon and that Mark Reynolds Cinderella season is about out of fairy dust.
Various News and Notes
Jameson Taillon was scratched prior to game time on Sunday with flu-like symptoms. This doesn’t appear to be anything serious, but screwed anyone that had him locked into their DFS lineups. THANKS A LOT JAMESON!!!
Tommy Pham was removed from Sunday’s game after experiencing tightness in his hip. This appears to be only precautionary at this time. Pham has had a quietly good first half, hitting .289/.378/.488 with ten home runs and eleven stolen bases. He should get enough playing time in the Cardinals outfield given Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty struggles this season. Pham has never gotten a real extended opportunity at the Major League level due to organizational needs and his own spotted health history. He could continue to be a sneaky good option in fantasy rest of the way if he can stay healthy.
Jason Kipnis was placed on the 10-day DL with a hamstring injury. Has struggled this year hitting .232/.292/.402 with eight home runs and five stolen bases. He will likely be out until early to mid August. Giovanny Urshela was promoted to fill his spot on the roster.
Completely Ridiculous Home Run Derby Predictions!
The following is not for gambling purposes and is meant to be fun. Gambling on sporting events is illegal in the United States except in Indian Reservations, Las Vegas, at a horse track, or you are playing DFS which is not considered gambling except in Washington, Idaho, Montana, Arizona, Delaware, Louisiana, Alabama, Hawaii, and Nevada (which is a tad bit funny.)
First Round Matchups:
Gary Sanchez (+250) vs. Giancarlo Stanton (-330)
Stanton is the reigning champ and odds on favorite to win the entire exhibition. In surprising turn of events, Logan Morrison is sitting behind home plate as the guest of the Marlins Man and heckles Gary Sanchez relentlessly. Sanchez proceeds to hit only one home run and Stanton powers his way to any easy win.
Winner: Stanton
Miguel Sano (-165) vs. Mike Moustakas (+135)
Sano has real man power, but Moustakas is more of the pull hitter and I think Marlins park will play more favorably to Moose in this one. During Sano’s turn, Joey Votto presents Zack Cozart with the donkey he promised him and Sano gets distracted by the animal on the field.
Winner: Moustakas
Justin Bour (+230) vs Aaron Judge (-295)
Judge is otherworldly and his power will play anywhere. Bour is a lefty pull hitter that knows the stadium. Shockingly, the pitcher finds the hole on Aaron judge’s swing and he proceeds to strike out 45% of the time during his turn.
Winner: Bour
Charlie Blackmon (+130) vs. Cody Bellinger (-165)
Bellinger’s swing is made for an event like this. I think the rookie will go all out to show off for the crowd. While Blackmon’s hobo-esque beard protects his face in the Rocky Mountain altitude, it is a detriment in the Florida humidity. Blackmon tires out from dehydration suffered getting from the hotel to the stadium and is unable to get more than seven homers.
Winner: Bellinger
[In between the first and second rounds, Justin Bour is traded to the Yankees]
Second Round Matchups
Giancarlo Stanton vs. Mike Moustakas
After cruising through the first round, Stanton struggles in the second round, but Moustakas is exhausted after trying to help get Zack Cozart’s donkey off the field and can’t get going in the round.
Winner: Stanton
Cody Bellinger vs. Justin Bour
After showing off in the first round, the inexperienced rookie is a bit gassed and regrets picking his father, a former Major League hitter, to pitch to him. Clay Bellinger is unable to find the strike zone in the same way he was unable to judge it when he was in the Majors. After hearing he has been traded to the Yankees, Bour puts on a show for the fans in Miami realizing this would be the last time he would be in a Marlins uniform which would reinvigorate anyone.
Winner: Bour
[In between the second and third round, Stanton is injured in a freak Gatorade accident.]
Championship Round:
Justin Bour vs. Giancarlo Stanton
Stanton won last year, but I am going to go with the upset here. After a gatorade bottle mishap lacerates Stanton’s hand, he takes it easy and allows the departing Bour to win handily. Stanton goes on to miss half of the rest of the season, but uses the money made in his huge contract to help Derek Jeter buy the Marlins under the conditions that he gets to take the fish statue and set it on fire.
Come on, his first name is Justin and he went to George Mason University. Who’d you think I was going to pick?
Winner: Justin Bour
Home Run Derby Odds:
Giancarlo Stanton 3/2 (Best Bet)
Aaron Judge 17/10 (Worst Value)
Cody Bellinger 8/1 (I Hate the Dodgers)
Miguel Sano 10/1 (Best Value)
Gary Sanchez 15/1 (Just Don’t)
Charlie Blackmon 15/1 (Suckers Bet)
Justin Bour 15/1 (Best Underdog)
Mike Moustakas 15/1 (Best Moose)
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
“Stanton is the reigning champ and odds on favorite to win the entire exhibition”
Stanton is 3/2 which is odds against. He’s the favourite, but not of the odds-on variety.
Maybe the Cardinals can trade the box of balls they got for Matt Adams to the Phillies for the same position they didn’t need two months ago.
That Honeywell screwball was nasty!
I’m wondering why Justin is saying that Mark Reynolds “…Cinderella season is about out of fairy dust.”
Has he seen his walk rate? It’s the best he’s had in several years. (He had three yesterday.)
And yes, his BABIP is inflated but doesn’t that happen to all Rocs hitters?
Anyway, I hope the Bour rumors are true. I have him in a 15 team 12 keeper league.
Walk rate has risen, but so has his strike out rate. I don’t think anyone thinks what he did in April and May will continue the entire way through. That being said, I don’t think the Rockies trade for a 1st baseman. If anything they make a move for pitching.
I just do not see how Joseph is any sort of upgrade over Reynolds. I could personally see him in New York, however. I think they go the Bour/Belt route, however.
Oh,ok. But if he makes the FG projections for the ROS, wouldn’t all of us—esp. those of us who play in deep leagues only be happy with that production?
In my case, I have him in 14 team points 10 keeper league where the deductions for strikeouts are only minus .3.
So his strikeouts aren’t hurting me very much.
Reynolds pretty obviously started changing his approach 3 years ago with the Cardinals and has continued it with the Rockies. He used to be a pretty pronounced FB hitter with FB% in the mid to upper 40’s. With the Cards in 2015 he dropped it to 39.5% and has been 32-33% with the Rockies. He has actually become more of a GB hitter than a FB hitter. HIs BB% is up but not THAT much, and no more than figures he put up 2010-12. I also have some vague recollection that he started working on cutting down the K% back with the Orioles and you can see where he’s gotten it down below 30% for 4 years now.
I can definitely see him keeping it up.
I also agree that Joseph is no upgrade to Reynolds, except for age.
I have BOTH Belt and Bour so I’m definitely hoping either of those guys to the Yanks happens. It’s quite possible that no hitter in the majors is hurt more by his home ballpark than Belt. A lot of hits that are HRs in Yankee Stadium just become warning track flyballs (or doubles at best) at AT&T. And if it’s not him, it might be Bour – the 2 lowest park factors by handedness are LH hitters in AT&T and Marlins Park.
“Jameson Taillon was scratched prior to game time on Sunday with flu-like symptoms.”
Jameson has also been involved when I’ve missed work due to flu-like symptoms.
I used to do my best work with Jameson-like symptoms.
Good ole “just dont” sanchez