Roto Riteup: July 10, 2015
Today’s Roto Riteup was written while District 9 played in the background. It’s one of my favorite original screenplays (technically it was adapted from a short, but director of the short was the same as the movie, Neill Blomkamp) and definitely one of my best films from 2009.
On today’s agenda:
1. Starling Marte’s injury status
2. Bad news for Steven Matz
3. Matt Holliday’s potential return
4. Streaming Pitching Options
Starling Marte’s injury status
After losing Josh Harrison for seven weeks due to his thumb injury, the club is looking at the possibility of losing Marte to the disabled list as well according to Tom Singer. Marte hasn’t played since July fifth as his oblique has been giving him issues. Given the All-Star break is nearly upon us, it’s possible Marte dodges the DL. If he is to miss time, the Pirates could stash him on the DL retroactive to July sixth and he could miss as few as eight additional games. In the event the Buccos do place him on the shelf, it’s highly unlikely to find another player with Marte’s power and speed on the waiver wire, though Delino Deshields Jr. could be of use. He popped 11 home runs and nabbed 54 bags at Double-A last season, and playing half of his games in the hitter friendly confines of Globe Life Park in Arlington can help play up his power. In Yahoo! leagues Brad Miller is outfield eligible and already has eight home runs and nine steals, but he is best used at shortstop rather than OF. Both DeShields Jr. and Miller can be picked up in about 70 percent of CBS settings, over 85 percent of Yahoo! and more than 70 percent of ESPN leagues.
Bad news for Steven Matz
Well, so much for a six-man rotation for the Mets. Yesterday the team learned of a partial tear in Matz’s lat, and as a result the 24-year-old will be shut down for at least three weeks. As Matt Snyder of CBS notes, the Mets have a spotty record of handling injuries. Here’s to hoping Matz can get past this with some rest and maybe a rehab start or two.
Matt Holliday’s potential return
The Cardinals have indicated they may activate Holliday as soon as today, however no official word has broken just yet. Out since June eight with a right quad strain, he would likely be limited to pinch hitting roles and is unlikely to be tested in the field. Even if activated, it’d be hard to place Holliday back into fantasy lineups if he isn’t guaranteed plate appearances.
Streaming Pitching Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.
A pitcher for today: Kendall Graveman at CLE (Danny Salazar)
The Indians have rated about average against right-handed pitchers thus far. Graveman doesn’t offer much in the way of strikeouts, but a quality start with a decent chance at a win seems within reach. Once can find Graveman available in 40 percent of CBS leagues and 75 percent of Yahoo! or ESPN formats.
A pitcher for tomorrow: Patrick Corbin at NYM (Matt Harvey)
Matching up against Harvey is a tough task, so it’ll be tough to grab a win here. That said, the Mets haven’t hit lefties very well this season and Corbin should fare well against their lineup. He’s free to pick up in about half of CBS leagues and at least 70 percent of ESPN and Yahoo! settings.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
Corbin is a lefty so the relevance in context is missing.
The Mets are bad against southpaws too, so it’s fine. But really, thanks for the heads up.
someone in my league dropped Strasburg. I am completely correct in stashing him right
Yep!
I’m just hoping Matz comes back this year. Spotty record with injuries makes me think that ownership is being cheap with medical staff as well.
The A’s have a — in my opinion — spotty track record with injuries too. Not sure if I can make the jump from both orgs being a little tighter on the budget to having a poor medical staff.
If anything, that would be an area I’d expect a small payroll team to want to excel. Gotta keep that product on the field.
I’m in first place in my 6×6 H2H keeper league. I just lost Gordon for the rest of our season and the third place team just offered the following deal:
Give: Schwarber
Get: Trea Turner, Hamilton, Kendrick
Given how low Gordon was batting in the KC lineup, I figure Kendrick could replace most of his production in a UT spot. Hamilton would replace Gordon as my third OF. The net effect would be to bench Duda for spot starts against RHP and cut Ben Paulsen. (For reference, Ethier, Morrison, Eaton, Aoki and De Aza are the best waiver wire OF.)
Another version of this deal switches out Nola for Turner and including Duda or Duffy.
My thinking here is that the upgrade for this season is worth the downgrade from Schwarber to Turner or Nola. Thoughts?
Also, my OF would be Puig, Reddick, Hamilton, Parra, Granderson, Peralta.
Man, I’m not sure if I could give up on Schwarber. Dude is raking in Triple-A right now. Not sure he’s worth that collection of players.
If you’re willing to shop him, you have to get someone premium back. Don’t do a dollar for four quarters, etc. Get a big stick back.
I didn’t know much about Turner, but there’s enough risk that Schwarber doesn’t stick at catcher to narrow the gap. Before the season, Kiley McDaniel had Turner’s upside at .280/.350/.420, 10-12 HR, and I’m guessing 30 SB (based on “plus plus speed”). That line at SS would be worth something like $20-$25 in my league this year.
Kiley admits that he’s high on Turner. Keith Law has Turner ranked similarly at 88 and also likes his speed, but is less sold on his footwork to stay at short. The guys over at minor league ball just wrote him up actually:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/7/8/8909235/washington-nationals-prospect-trea-turner-scouting-report-and
I’m not sure Schwarber is a catcher, but I’m not 100 percent convinced Truner sticks at SS. He probably has better odds to stay at short than Schwarber does to remain a catcher, though.
Of course, full disclosure, I am awfully high on Schwarber’s bat, and I think a 30-home run with great OBP type guy.
I love Schwarber, as well. His peak looks like Harper’s ROS line: .300/.400/.500, 30-35 HR. That’s around $35 in our league if he goes to 1B/OF.
I think both guys have the same level of risk. So, then, the question becomes how much I choose to discount the difference in future value for winning now. Given my position in the league, is $10 of value ROS worth paying $10 per season for the next five years?
I think I’d still hang on to Schwarber, but I wouldn’t fault you for getting Turner et al.
How badly do you need a shortstop? I agree with David, I’d keep Schwarber, and I assume you’re dealing for Billy Hamilton, not Josh?
Losing Gordon means you should replace him with a power hitter like Schwarber.
Should i consider dropping Matz in my short bench, 10 team non keeper league? I love Matz but im fighting to maintain my first place in my division, which got harder after losing Stanton and springer
Yeah, I think dropping him in non-keeper or dynasty leagues is fair, especially 10-teamers.
Hey David and others need some more advice for my 16 team points league.
I’m heading for the consolation bracket. The bottom eight teams vie for both the #1 pick in the snake draft and the prospect draft next spring.
And I’m short of starters now that Colome and Trevor May have lost their jobs. I’m hopeful that May will get his job back, he’s better than Milone IMO. But Berrios looms and he’s taken in our league.
I’ve already picked up Wily Peralta from the DL. Maybe Smyly will be back by some time in August, so I have him stashed on the DL.
I have five decent starters in Richards, Carlos Martinez, Salazar, Gio, and Shoemaker. Need one more as Bundy won’t be able to help me this summer.
Which, from this list, is the most likely to produce points for me when the playoffs start in 5 weeks? (We have 3 two week matchups to determine the winner of both brackets and the season ends on Week 25.)
Rusin, Doubront, Frias (on DL), Urena, Greene, Masterson or (gulp!) Danks. (Danks does have two good starts recently.) Doubront still has that high walk rate in the minors and probably loses his job when Norris gets promoted or the Jays trade for a pitcher. I’m allergic to Colorado pitchers with low K rates.
Whom do you recommend from this motley group?
I might go with Urena. He doesnt excite me much, but of that group he probably has the best upside at this point. He was a solid top 10 prospect for the Fish entering this year and what little I have seen of him, he does have legit stuff. His command has been all over the place at time though.
It’s a pretty rough list, but in my eyes Urena has the best upside going forward.
Oh dear. Um, if I have to make a decision, I guess Frias. Good offense to support him. I’m not sure Urias will even get more than a cup of coffee this season, otherwise it’d be him by a comfortable margin.
Would someone like Hellickson, maybe Medlin if the Royals name him a starter or Zach Lee or Brandon Beachy? IF Folty pitches well in relief I could — something I expect — the Braves may move him back to the rotation.
Thanks for the advice. I’m leaning Frias myself.
I’ve got Lee on my watch list. Beachy: taken. Folty: taken.
Aw man, I know that feeling.
I’m in a 20-teamer and it is SO hard to find much of anything on the waiver-wire.
The Matz injury stings me since he was looking like a major help to my mediocre rotation. I need a replacement for him since I need to drop him (DL spots are filled up). I am streaming Graveman tonight, but I dont see him as a must own in a 12 team league. My options arent great, but which of these guys should I go after?
Latos
Bolsinger
Eduardo Rodriguez (just got dropped, not sure I will be able to claim him)
Heaney
Robbie Ray
Erasmo Ramirez
Like I said, not a super inspiring list. I’m leaning towards Latos, but have also been really impressed with what the trio of Erasmo, Ray and Heaney have done in the past month or so.
I’d go with Bolsinger > Latos > Heaney then the rest sort of muddle together, unless you can get Eduardo, then he gets top billing.
I’d keep Heaney the rest of the season, Mike W. I wanted him, but someone snapped him up in one of my leagues before I could get him.
Adrian Beltre is killing me right now – is there any hope ahead?
Yes! His walk rate has fallen off a cliff despite not swinging out of the zone that much more and his overall swinging strike rate is excellent. His BABIP is about 40 points below his career norm, though his Soft% contact rate is quite high.
I think his ZiPS RoS is about right. Keep the faith.
Inspiring words during this trying time, thank you.
The Mets are bad against everyone. On most nights they start 3/4 position players that are not mlb starters, with Lucas Duda/cuddyer not included in that, batting in the middle of the order.
I didn’t want it to sound quite like that, but, yeah. They’re not a good offensive ball club right now.
Ivan Nova or Mat Latos for the rest of the season?
Latos for me, but it’s really close. Comes down to ballparks. Latos is more fly ball oriented, but pitches in a solid home park whereas Nova will get grounders, but in a park that is pretty tough.