Roto Riteup: April 27, 2013
Happy Babe Ruth Day! In celebration of the Babe, go watch The Sandlot.
On today’s agenda:
1. The return of Sean Marshall
2. Danny Hultzen’s injury
3. What to make of Kyle Kendrick
The return of Sean Marshall
Yesterday the Cincinnati Reds activated Sean Marshall from the 15-day disabled list. Marshall has been a key contributor to bullpens — both real and fatnasy — since his breakout three seasons ago. Since 2010, Marshall is seventh in baseball at 79 holds and sports a 2.46 ERA in 212.1 innings pitched. With Aroldis Chapman cemented at the closer position and Jonathan Broxton presumably next in line, don’t expect saves from Marshall in the near future. Marshall does have the talent to close, but will instead be used in a middle relief/get out of a jam role. If one happens to play in a league that counts holds, Marshall is absolutely worth grabbing. He is available in over 90% of CBS, Yahoo!, and ESPN leagues.
Danny Hultzen’s injury
Danny Hultzen was scratched from his start on Thursday after he was unable to get loose and it appears that we now know why. Seattle Mariners General Manager Jack Zduriencik announced that Hultzen has a strained left (his throwing arm) rotator cuff and tendinitis. He is expected to miss two weeks. Prior to the injury, Hultzen was cruising through his second trip around the International League with 22.2 innings of 2.78 ERA/2.49 FIP ball thus far. He also had 25 strikeouts against just six walks. Hultzen should be owned in most Ottoneu leagues and even some deep AL-only leagues. The talent is there for him to receive a call up this season, however this injury pushes any promotion date back. For now, hold steady on him, but just know that shoulder injuries scare the pants off of the present author.
What to make of Kyle Kendrick
Though there were several contestants for “best start of the day” yesterday (namely Jordan Zimmermann’s CG SHO or Anibal Sanchez’s 17 (!) strikeouts), Kyle Kendrick brought a good argument to the table with his CG SHO against the New York Mets. The outing lowered his seasonal line to 2.41 ERA/3.44 FIP/3.50 xFIP and he now has a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Even before yesterday’s start, Kendrick was the owner of a 3.28 ERA and a 3.47 xFIP. To say that Kendrick has been the Philadelphia Phillies’ second best starter would not be a lie. This is most likely the best that we will see of Kendrick, so any owner would be wise to package him in a trade and sell high. Kendrick doesn’t have enough value on his own to warrant a one-for-one trade, but as part of a larger deal, Kendrick can be sold for more than what he is worth.
Bonus coverage
Edwin Encarnacion, Anthony Rizzo, and Carlos Beltran all hit two home runs yesterday. Congrats to fantasy owners of those guys. If you happen to own all three on the same team, take a screen shot of it and tweet it to @davidwiers. Make sure to let me know your staff’s final line of day, as well as the point swing that occurred yesterday.
There was also an unusually high number of shut outs yesterday with the Mets, Braves, Reds, and Athletics all failing to score a run. If by some chance anyone had the all (or even three) of starters throwing against the teams that were shut out, post a screen shot of that as well and don’t forget your team’s stat line and point jump.
Finally, the present author could quite easily wax poetic about Andrew Cashner, but he shall refrain. For now.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
Would you trade cashner to get Rizzo in a 12 teamKeeper league?
Yes. I love Cashner, clearly, but Rizzo is the better player.
In a heartbeat I did
Of greater significance than the 2-run homers you mentioned was the 3-run shot by Twins rookie Oswaldo Arcia, and the extra run was just the least of the reasons.
Arcia as a prospect has shown the ability to hit for average and power and to improve as he moved up the ladder, along with an approach to to hitting that has him seeking the worst drivable pitch and letting it rip, an approach that I think makes him less prone to rookie struggles.
If he starts from here on out I’d expect 20+ HRs, a respectable batting average and a spot in the order conducive to driving in runs.
That is a big IF and how he performs with Mastroianni on the DL will likely determine if he stays as a starter or gets sent back down to AAA. Last night’s 3-run homer was his second and he’s now knocked in 6 of the past 13 runs over four games for the Twins. While we know RBIs is a measure of opportunity as much as talent, we also know that measure appeals to an old-school manager like Ron Gardenhire.
Arcia took a big step last night towards securing a full-time gig and any fantasy player should take note.
Eerie. It’s like I talked about him recently. It seems as though it was only yesterday…http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/roto-riteup-april-26-2013/
Even Eerier: I wrote about him 9 days earlier:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/4/17/4233734/welcome-to-the-big-leagues-again-mr-arcia
Not sure why it was big news yesterday when you reported something Gardenhire has been saying for more than a week about Arcia – It was old news that the Twins would give Arcia every chance to win a job.
But it was last night that Arcia took a big step towards securing that job. That was newsworthy.
Context. Last time Arcia was he there for all of one day. Now that Gardenhire is publicly supporting him, that is newsworthy.
But sure, one home run is big. I don’t know what/why you’re arguing here…
We agree context is important. When I wrote about him nine days ago, it was after he had been promoted for a second time, and unlike the first time, when he was called up to fill a brief paternity leave, the second time it was clear from the start that Gardenhire wanted to play him every day. Here’s a link to one of Gardenhire’s comments April 16th:
http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Oswaldo_Arcia_returns_to_replace_Darin_Mastroianni_who_heads_to_DL041613
So when you write, “NOW that Gardenhire is publicly supporting him” you seem unaware Gardenhire has been making similar comments for more than a week. When he started, it was newsworthy. By yesterday it was old news.
If you are in a shallow league — and most fantasy players are — then your link yesterday was no doubt helpful. If you are in a deep league or A.L. only league, your link came a week late.
If your goal is to provide helpful roto update to players in shallower leagues — which is the vast majority of players — than yesterday’s post made the mark. If instead you want to be among the first to report roto news so that those in deeper leagues benefit too, you’ll need to be quicker then you were with Arcia.
There’s no shame if you chose the former and not the latter — Fangraphs has earned it reputation not by being first but by being thoughtful and analytic. Many websites that are first to the punch are staffed by intellectual flyweights who miss the mark much more often than they hit it.
But with all due respect, before you report some comments as new, you might want to do a bit more research to find their origin. I hope you consider that helpful feedback and not fodder for argument.
And on a more important note, happy Bambino Day to you too!
I’m genuinely confused. Are you upset/disappointed that we didn’t report his promotion immediately? I’m open to debate/criticisms. I love reader and writer interaction, that is why I try to address every comment/question on my articles. If I didn’t love doing this, I wouldn’t engage with faceless voices and opinions over the internet.
Let me know what/where I can improve to make the Roto Riteup better. I’m always open to new ideas.
I’m off to watch the finish of DreamHack. If you like StarCraft II, you’d love this event. What can I say? I’m a nerd in many different ways.
Can’t say I love StarCraft II but that’s only because my inner nerd expresses itself in other ways.
I appreciate you taking the time to reply to comments — I did the same when I did a stint at Hardball Times.
I am neither upset or disappointed. I’m trying to point out that you inadvertently reported as new something that was dated, specifically, Gardenhire’s support of Arcia playing every day.
I write for a living (it’s my day job) and sometimes I err and readers comment on those errors, some in a good-spirited way, others, not so much. In any case, I try to learn from those mistakes and do my best to avoid them. My comments were intended as a reminder to check on whether today’s pronouncements by managers are meaningful and new or simply a reiteration of something previously stated, so you can report that accurately.
The Hultzen injury is certainly worrisome and I say that as a UVA guy and someone who had him as a keeper on my fantasy team. I always thought Joe Saunders was a prime candidate to lose his starting spot (I just don’t think he’s very good) and If Hultzen is still compromised when that happens, someone else will get the call.
Maybe it’s just me, but your entire thread rubbed me the wrong way. Promoting yourself here is already poor form. Even worse that you’re trying to do it by making someone else look bad.
Perhaps you can explain what I am promoting and why you find that so distasteful.
I use my actual name in posting because I dislike Internet anonymity and the sometimes poor behavior that accompanies it.
In my exchange I linked an article to which I have no affiliation and a post I made on a website in which I have no interest other than as a participant in its message boards.
I am no doubt guilty of promoting my view of Arcia as well as a belief that one should check the background before reporting something as new.
As for trying to make David look bad, this is what I originally wrote: “Good call on Arcia though a bit late for deeper leagues.”
I thought at the time that I had raised the issue in an entirely respectful way and nothing you have written so far shakes me from that belief.
Self-awareness is underrated.
I’m aware the writers and editors who host Fangraphs are more than capable of policing their own forums against self-promotion and that notwithstanding that truth, some posters will try to usurp that role for themselves because they have little else to contribute.
I picked up Cashner as a free agent in all of my dynasty leagues this winter because I thought he was San Diego’s best starter and held onto him after he sliced his hand with a knife and still held on after he started the season in the bullpen even though middle relief has zero value in my leagues .I really feel like my faith is finally being rewarded . Let’s hope he stays healthy for a change .
Patience, my friend. As a long time member of the Cashner fan club, I am thoroughly enjoying this too.
When will FanGraphs start tracking quality starts? It’s a dumb stat, but it’s also a stat in my league, so.
That’s a good question for Dave Cameron on his chats. Wish I could help further than that, but I am but a small fish in a big pond.
Would you trade Beltre for Samardzija? Standard 5×5 roto and I need SP help, especially strikeouts.
Samardzija was my preseason NL Cy Young pick, but Beltre plays a thin position.
I like Beltre more, but a hefty amount. If you’re looking to deal Beltre, ask for Samardzija + change.
I managed a fifteen point jump yesterday on the coattails of 3 gems from Sanchez, Bailey, Cashner. Rizzo’s two homers get credit for an assist there.
Good lord. You win the day. Are you winning the league now?
Started Encarnacion, Rizzo, and Cashner yesterday! Feels so right.
Cheers on the Cashner start!
Kendrick has increased his gb% and had a 3/1 k/bb. He could be legit. Why u think he’s a sell high ?
His GB% is up 3% and it is probably due to his increased sinker usage (up to 63% from 46% last year) but his SwStr% is just 6% and he .257 BABIP isn’t going to stay that low, especially with the increase in grounders.
In 4×4 (W, ERA, WHIP, S) Rank the following: Darvish, Dickey, King Felix, Bumgarner, Gio Gonzalez, Fister, Estrada, Cashner.
Also who of those would you trade for Allen Craig?
In order:
Darvish
Felix
Gio
Bumgarner
Fister
Dickey
Cashner
Estrada
Out of those pitchers, I wouldn’t give up anyone other than Cashner or Estrada for Craig.
Well I did have two (Beltran and Rizzo) in my H2H league and debated sitting Rizzo in favor of Aoki – I also started Cashner who I almost dropped last week when I put a waiver claim in on Kipnis, but another player beat me to him.
Hang on to Cashner, unless you are a madman and streams your pitching in H2H like I do. It’s a fun, but really up-and-down process.
I’m the chump who did sit Rizzo in favor of Aoki. E5 and Cashner having good days were consolation prizes.
Oof. Shake it off. I’ve sat Masterson each time he’s thrown a gem and started him every time he implodes. So it goes.
Hey David,
I posted this question before and received an answer from Fresh, but I was just wondering if your opinion is the same: With Hanley coming off the DL I need to drop someone: W. Peralta, Cashner, Smyly, Alexei, or Sean Marshall?
If it helps, Alexei is my only bench hitter (but there will be two when Hanley is back), my other starters are Cain, Samardzija, Latos, E. Jackson, and Cashner, and my other RPs are Cishek, Soriano, and Jansen.
By the way this is an NL-only league (plus the AL Central)
Thanks!
And I fail at replying for the second time in two days.
StarCraft is distracting!
Just saw the comment on the previous, sorry, I mistook it for a comment today and was confused when I didn’t see it here!
As for you question, let me just say that a NL-only league + AL Central sounds absurdly fun. I would drop Marshall. There are plenty of good — albeit not as good as Marshall — relievers available, but very few SS eligible players who are worth owning. Alexei is probably redundant (I assume you’ll start Hanley at SS and you have a different 3B in mind) but having an extra SS/MI eligible player in a league as shallow as yours is immensely helpful.
Normally I like to have a 0 man bench in order to maximize my pitching stats, but with a limited number of worthwhile players to choose from, Alexei gets a value boost.
Hey David,
Thanks for your detailed answer, and I now that I think about it I agree with you since looking at the free agent list guys like D. Hernandez, Gregerson, O’Flaherty, Rosenthal, and Benoit are available. And actually this is a weekly lineup league, so I can only start 7 pitchers per week, and I usually go 3 RP and 4 SP, depending on my two-start pitchers. Does that change anything?
And yeah, NL + AL Central is just around the amount of depth that is challenging but not too ridiculous.
Anyway thanks again!
No, my answer stays the same. It sounds like a fun league though, and best of luck for the rest of the season.
Archer or Odorizzi up first for TB?
Archer has been getting BABIP’d into the ground, but his FIP is actually better than Ordorizzi’s. That being said, I thin Odorizzi will be up sooner, if only because of service time concerns. It is the Rays we’re talking about.
Odorizzi has just 7.1 big league innings under his belt whereas Archer has almost 30. I think that matters quite a bit to the Rays.
What do you think about Erlin’s future. Is he worth grabbing now?
I’d hold off for now unless you play in a keeper league, or an extraordinary deep league.
I’m not ready to part with Kendrick just yet. He had quality stuff in the second half last year. Unless i’m reading this wrong (a high probability) his 48% GB is lower than 2012’s 2H 50% GB. This could be the continuation of a breakout, even if he’ll never be a strikeout guy.
Well, his lowest GB% was actually in 2009…but it came in 26.1 innings.
The increased use of his sinker is promising for an elevated GB%, but ground balls have a higher BABIP than fly balls.
standard 5×5 leagues usually use R, HR, RBI, SB, and AVG for hitters and K, W, SV, ERA, and WHIP. While for hitters it is possible to get someone that can contribute moderately to all five categories, it is impossible to get a pitcher that can contribute to all five. if we were to replace the fifth category of SV, what would it be for you?
Strikeout to walk ratio.
Does your man-love allow you to be rational vis-a-vis Cashner? Should I drop Maholm for him? K/9, QS and IP count in my league, but NOT wins. What does this do to Cashner’s value?
Yes, on both accounts. I love Cashner, but that love doesn’t cloud my vision.
And I much prefer Cashner over Maholm. K/9 and QS don’t move the needle much in my opinion, but innings pitched does. Cashner will probably be on a pitch limit for most — if not all of the year.
That being said, I believe Cashner is the superior pitcher.
Thanks. So you’re worried Cashner won’t pitch a lot of IP, but they’ll be good ones when he does? I have horses like Shields and Bumgarner to off-set him though.
While I’ve got you – would you give up Lester/Hellickson to get Matt Cain in the same format? Would leave be with Bumgarner, Cain, Shields, JZimm, Cobb, Cashner.
Exactly. For Casher vs Maholm, it is a quality vs quantity sort of thing.
No. I like Lester and Hellboy more than Cain on his own.
I’m fairly new to fantasy baseball. I’m in a standard 10 team 5×5 league. Is JJ Hardy a fair trade for Fernando Rodney?
Thanks for the feedback. This site is indispensable.
It would help if you gave some context to the type of league that you’re in. Meaning H2H, Rotisserie, etc. Is it a deep league? What are the stats you guys use.
It’s difficult to give feedback without understanding the league rules
Sorry, I didn’t read what you wrote closely enough apparently.
Sure. It’s a daily changes, weekly h2h league. The categories are HR, Runs, RBI, Average, Stolen bases // strikeouts, wins, era, whip, saves.
Its 10 teams, 30 players per team.
Quick clarification, is it a mixed league or AL-only?
I’ll assume it is a mixed league. I really like Hardy, but in a 10-team league (e.g. a shallow league), there are plenty of ownable shorstops in front of him. Rodney is a closer — as ephermeral as the closer position is — he is more valuable than a low-to-mid tier shortstop.
I’d rather have Rodney, his brutal current walk rate and all, than Hardy. My sole caveat (outside the normal realm of closers winning and losing their jobs on a weekly basis) is that Rodney is a huge injury risk.
But I’ll stick with Rodney over Hardy.
Also, thank you for the kind words, but there is but one thing that I could ever call indispensable:
http://www.amazon.com/Indispensable-Calvin-Hobbes-Treasury/dp/0836218981
I was going to post this on today’s roto riteup but one hasn’t been posted yet.
I’m in a rotisserie league, 40 roster spots deep, OBP league. Not much on the waiver wire on the hitting side. I traded Strasburg and Granderson for Harper and Ryu. Was wondering what you thought about the trade.
I have Wainwright, Sale, Estrada, Cobb, Cashner, Corbin, and Teheran for my pitchers. Along with Ryu now.
It’s my fault there isn’t an RR today. I got caught up in things last evening. My apologies.
Harper is better than Granderson; Strasburg is better than Ryu. I’d say it’s a pretty good trade, with the potential to be great.
Subplot: Granderson’s injury scares the bejesus out of me. I’m worried that when Grandy comes back, his power won’t be the same. I think the Harper/Ryu side has a chance to consider this a fleecing. And I love Strasburg.
That was pretty much my thinking. Thanks for the response.
Okay, I need some advice. I was just offered a trade. My Trumbo and Kubel for Pujols.
Pujols kind of scares me right now, I should reject that trade…right? Or am I crazy?
I’d much rather have Pujols. Trumbo has warts, clearly, and Kubel is a nice outfielder, but nothing great. Quality over quantity.
The foot injury doesn’t scare you? If not, I’ll likely do it.
In a fantasy vacuum, curious to know which side of this people like:
Halladay and De Aza
Crawford and Hafner
Thanks.
Crawford and Hafner.
The 90 games that Hafner gives you is solid, and I’m becoming a re-believer in Crawford. Assuming it is Carl Crawford and not Brandon Crawford.
David,
What do you think of Blanton? I know you were bullish on him prior to the start of the season. So far, his SwStr% is way down (as are his k’s) and he’s walking a lot more guys than usual. His first pitch strike % is fine, so I’d expect the walks to come down to his typical rate, but I’m not so sure about the k’s. The reason I ask is that he just got dropped in my league and I’m considering picking him up. It’s a deep AL only league, so an arm like that is intriguing and I did like him before the season started. I’d drop Blevins (the Oakland RP) to pick him up. Curious to hear your thoughts. Also, just had the Hangar 24 Double IPA. Highly recommend.
I still like Blanton. He is getting BABIP’d hard, currently .381 BABIP, and while his SwStr% is down, it is still early. Add in his elevated HR/FB rate and you have his 7.09 ERA.
I like him to rebound.
David, I’m getting about to the end of my rope with jay Bruce. What is your take on how he will finish out the season. BTW thanks for the advice on Adam Dunn, looks like he’s turning it around.
I adore Jay Bruce. His average will never be great, but his counting stats will be there. He is Matt Holliday minus the (50 points worth) of batting average.
Stick with em.
Alright, one last question. How do you feel about this Arenado kid, 3B for the rockies??? I picked him up on a whim, is he real deal?
I like him at home, don’t like him on the road. Third base is pretty rough. I would rather own Donaldson — at least while Donaldson is hot — than Arenado right now, but it’s close.
Hey,
Would you rather start Cashner (one start @CHC) or Edwin Jackson (two starts vs. SD and vs. CIN) Thanks!
Cincy has a really good offense, but Cashner in Wrigely scares me too. I’ll go with two E-Jacks starts and cross my fingers.