Roto Riteup: April 14, 2013
The Roto Riteup was two pitches late today, as a ball boy jumped in front of the author and cut him off. It seems as though there is an awful lot of that going on these days.
On today’s agenda:
1. Everth Cabrera’s big day
2. The return of Darwin Barney
3. Johnny Cueto is forced to leave his start early
4. Loss and gain in the Arizona Diamondbacks outfield
5. The Carter administration and the Department of Power
Everth Cabrera’s big day
Any 4-for-5 day is noteworthy, but Everth Cabrera came just a double short of hitting for the cycle yesterday. The sole disappointment for him was that he was caught stealing in his only attempt. Given that he almost filled up the 5×5 line on his own, one should overlook this isolated incident. What is curious — other than the home run, as Cabrera hadn’t hit one since June of last season — is that Cabrera has now been caught stealing three times this season, and that is no isolated incident. He caught four times last year while stealing 44 bases in the process, so perhaps bad jumps or reads is giving him trouble. Perhaps a Padres fan could weigh in on this matter more. Given that he has the speed to steal 40+ bags and even stole 24 straight last year, this recent turn of events in the SB/CS area is most likely a blip on the radar. If you’re still looking for a Jose Reyes replacement, Cabrera is a good pick. His highest ownership rate is just shy of 70% in ESPN leagues. In Yahoo! and CBS leagues, he is available in 40% and 47% respectively.
The return of Darwin Barney
Darwin Barney is expected to make his season debut on Tuesday with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Texas Rangers. For those of you in deep weekly leagues, feel free to start him. Barney is essentially Everth Cabrera minus the steals, and that really isn’t a compliment in fantasy terms. Barney is playable in extremely deep leagues or NL-only formats with a MI slot.
Johnny Cueto forced from his latest start
The precise details are still fuzzy, but Cueto was forced to leave his start yesterday with an injury to his right triceps. Apparently he felt pain in his throwing arm and the decision to remove him was a precautionary decision. For the best updates on this situation, the author urges you to read RotoGraphs’ very own Jeff Zimmerman and his excellent MASH Report. Jay-Z (he doesn’t know that I will now call him that from now on) keeps track of every major league injury — from DL stints to day-to-day aches — on his report. It is an invaluable tool for a condensed injury report on all 30 MLB teams.
Loss and gain in the Arizona Diamondbacks’ outfield
In related moves, the Diamondbacks have activated outfielder Cody Ross from the disabled list and placed fellow outfielder Jason Kubel on the 15-day DL with a strained left quad. Ross made it into the game yesterday in a pinch hitting role, but figures to get the majority of playing time in right field going forward. The D-backs have been playing musical chairs in the outfield between injuries to Adam Eaton, Ross, and now Kubel. In fantasy terms, Ross has the power to clear the 20 home run mark — especially given the friendly confines of his home park. Ross’ ownership rate in both Yahoo! and CBS is 19% and his ownership rate is a mere 2% in ESPN leagues. For now, Ross has playing time and health on his side in a favorable home park.
The Carter administration and the Department of Power
Despite the fact that the Carter administration started and ended more than 10 years prior to the author’s date of birth, former President Carter is known for, among other things, for creating the Department of Energy as well as the Department of Education. Presently, Chris Carter is campaigning for a figurative Department of Power. Yesterday (the non-Presidential) Carter hit his fourth home run of the season and his .311 ISO is good for top 25 in baseball. Strikeouts and a a resulting mediocre batting average will tend to hurt Carter in standard 5×5 leagues, but his strong walk rate combined with his power make him for an excellent player in OBP leagues. Carter now has both 1B and LF eligibility in most leagues and his lineup flexibility as well as his power and guaranteed playing time make for a very attractive waiver wire pick up. Carter is available to be owned in over 70% of CBS formats, 80% of Yahoo! leagues, and 95% of ESPN leagues. Even if you don’t need help at 1B/LF yet, Carter makes sense for all formats and league types.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
Leagues where players like Carter and Ross are available as free agents over 70% of the time are just laughable . Why would anybody want to play in them ?
Comments where people talk about why people play in leagues where Carter and Ross are unowned is laughable. Why would anyone post them?
I play in what I could call relatively high level leagues (no LABR or Tout Wars or anything) and Ross was available in one of them. Players slip through the cracks all the time. No need to be hypercritical.
“Psh, yooo like seriously, bro, how are Ross and Carter still available in yo loser leagues, bro?…the leagues I play in, bro, are like so freakin deeeeep, man.”
-Every 14yr old who thinks playing in deep leagues with 40-man rosters somehow makes them an expert at fantasy baseball.
I’m in a deep mixed league with one DL spot, and both Jason Motte (fuck) and Jose Reyes (FUCK) on my roster.
It’s time to drop Motte, right? Let’s be realistic – even if he comes back late-season, he’s not going to provide enough value to justify taking up a roster position the entire time Reyes is out.
I dropped Motte earlier this week to stow-away Stephen Drew (who I’m still holding on the DL as a reserve MI). I obviously am not optimistic.
Absolutely – you’re probably just waiting three more weeks to find out he’s having TJ, at which point you’ll drop him anyway. If he ends up not needing surgery, well, you’ve already outlined that scenario. Cut bait now and get an extra three weeks out of that roster spot.
Great replies, thanks. Makes me feel better about dropping him and picking up Alexei Ramirez – a pretty awful fit for this league, but probably better than an empty SS slot, and far better than I expected to be finding in the FA pool.
Yeah, at this point you have to let Motte go.
It definitely depends on how deep your league is and if there’s anybody interesting available. I have Motte in my one DL spot and won’t hesitate to drop him when I get another injury.
[sheds a single tear]
I had the same issues as you, unfortunately (!) hang in there man…and yes drop Motte now.
Reyes, I’d keep-but I don’t know if he’ll be able to steal much once he returns.
It was clear pretty early on that Motte’s injury was more serious than was being officially reported. Granted, I never would have drafted him, but you can deifnitely safely drop him. He probably won’t be back this season, and even if he is, he likely won’t be effective enough to close.
With the possible injuries in the Red’s staff this week, is Cingrani worth the speculative add?
Cingrani’s K/9 rate looks like something out of a video game with the cheat code turned on. I know he doesn’t have a great secondary pitch, but I’ve rolled the dice on more speculative choices. Grab him.
Would you drop Jason Vargas, Luke Gregerson, or David Robertson for Cingrani? 10 team mixed roto. Thanks!
I’d drop Vargas. Gregerson and Robertson will help your strikeouts and overall ratios, plus they may even get the occasional vulture win.
Vargas doesn’t bring enough to the table for me in a format as shallow as a 10-team mixed league.
Definitely. If you can grab him, do so immediately. I haven’t seen an update on Cueto’s injury, but I expect that word to break soon.
Alright. Would you have a problem with keeping Vargas over Gregerson and Robertson because I picked Vargas up due to Greinke’s injury and just trying to find more starting pitching. Would you suggest picking up Ervin Santana up too and dropping either Gregerson or Robertson? Thanks!
I’ll make a couple of assumptions here based on the 10-team mixed league mention above:
Probably 25 or 27 man roster spots?
A lot of the good hitters were taken, but there are good position players with warts on the FA/WW list.
There are probably a ton of *really* good middle relievers and decent starting pitching on the FA/WW too.
I would hold on to the good relievers and stream SP like a mad man. Even with an IP limit (usually 1400 or 1450) you can stay comfortably under it based on carrying so many relievers as opposed to starters. Even if one of your spot starters crashes and burns in a streamed start, holding on to the elite relievers will help lower your WHIP/ERA ratios. In just a 10-team league, I would never, ever draft very many SP. There are just so many viable options to be streamed.
By the way, how many innings would you project for Cingrani? Same as Vargas? Say about 190 or more possibly?
I’d say 190 is too high. Cingrani’s season high is 146 IP, set just last year. I’d expect 160-170 innings this year.
29 roster spots with 1 DL. Three SP slots, four RP slots, and four P slots.
We started out at 1700 innings. I have 1585.2 innings left.
Okay, so it is a little deeper than average, but 10 teams is still less than a standard league.
I would have seven top shelf RP going at all times, using your three RP plus the four P slots. Stream whatever starter you feel comfortable grabbing that day/week. You’ll need to keep a close eye on the Probable Pitchers page (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/probable_pitchers/) and then make your decisions based on that. For example, Edwin Jackson is owned in just 50% of ESPN leagues. He starts at home against the Giants. The Giants have hit just six HR all year (only six teams have hit less) and they also have the fourth worst ISO. Even at Wrigley, I would stream Jackson tomorrow. I’d also probably stream Maurer tomorrow, as he is at home against the Twins.
And to answer your Vargas over Gregerson question, yeah, I wouldn’t keep Vargas. I’m paraphrasing Finding Nemo a bit here, but I’m pretty sure Dory said “Just keep streaming, just keep streaming…”
That’s great. I have eight quality relief pitchers now. Addison Reed, Parnell, Boggs, James Russell, Andrew Bailey, Kelvin Herrera, Gregerson, and Robertson.
You, my friend, are sitting pretty. Your ratios should be off the charts (maybe 10 points in both ERA and WHIP), the strikeouts will be there, and by streaming SP, you’ll safely be under the innings cap, and should be able to dig up the wins when needed.
That was a long sentence. Oops.
By the way, I was trying to include more information about my league to you, David. Sorry if I sounded too aggressive in terms of my tone.
How many starting pitchers would you recommend? I have six now. Cole Hamels, James Shields, Ian Kennedy, Dan Haren, Jose Fernandez, and Vargas (I will replace him with Cingrani). Should i go for a seventh?
I’ve been a long time reader of reddit, so really nothing in a comment section is new to me anymore.
But really, no worries. Nothing came across even remotely acidic. Best of luck this season! Keep reading the daily Roto Riteup and Sanders and I produce and we’ll do our damndest to address/answer each comment/question! Of course the Bullpen Report and the MASH Report are also must read daily pieces!
I would trade em all, honestly. Upgrade your hitters to the point where it is just a silly good offense and then rely on your elite RP to carry your strikeouts and ratios.
If you can average 8-9 points in each offensive category then lead the league in both ERA and WHIP, you will crush the league by a wide margin.
Cool. Thanks for taking the time to answer my questions, David. I really appreciate it. I will make sure to say hi in your future articles!
Cody Ross or David Murphy?
If you need RBIs go with Ross, but if you want to grab points in average take Murphy.
If it is absolutely one or the other, I’ll lean towards Murphy. The outfield picture in Texas is much clearer.
Seeing as the original Carter’s Departments of Energy and Ed have been pure failures, it doesn’t bode well for the new Carter’s Department of Power.
Don’t bring up these facts when I’m trying to (painfully) stretch to bridge the gap between fantasy baseball and politics.
Any thoughts on rolling the dice with Bedard @ Oakland in a 6×6 Roto that uses QS instead of wins?
I need to see something out of Bedard before I can recommend starting him. Oakland’s offense isn’t as bad as people seemingly think it is. As an A’s fan, I actually like this offense. It fits the park well.
Much less dangerous if Coco and Cespedes are out though.
Good point, however Young, Smith, Reddick, and Moss provide some above average pop too. The lineup isn’t loaded with all stars, but it is filled with a lot of solid hitters.
With Danny Espinosa getting hit in the hand, it looks like I need a new SS (blessing in disguise perhaps…). There isnt a whole lot on the waiver wire:
Jhonny Peralta
Pete Kozma
Brandon Crawford
Marwin Gonzalez
Zack Cozart
Ruben Tejada
Any thoughts? Someone else I should be considering?
Just saw that. Hoping his hand isn’t broken, but I guess the X-rays will tell.
I’d rather take Everth Cabrera or Jean Segura over any of those guys, but if he isn’t available, I like, in order:
Peralta
Cozart
Gonzalez
Crawford
Tejada
Kozma
Apparently the Blue Jays have spoken to the Braves about Pastornicky. That could be an interesting pick up if a trade happens.
Thanks for the quick response. Cabrera and Segura are rostered.
Xrays on Espinosa were negative, but I just noticed Andrelton Simmons was recently dropped. Is he worth considering over Espinosa?
Get Peralta. He’s by far the fest of that group and the only one really worth owning in shallowish leagues. Put in a decent bid for him.
I play in a 13 team league with a 1400 inning cap. I know it sounds crazy, but would you consider dropping Jeremy Hellickson for Cingrani? It is a competitive league, especially for strikeouts. Do you know the chances Cingrani sticks with the rotation even after Cueto returns?
Is it a keeper league? If so, this makes the decision that much harder. I’m not that high on Hell-Boy, but Cingrani needs to prove himself yet too.
You don’t have a less viable starter to drop than Hellickson? I will say that I like Cingrani more, especially for fantasy, but again, we haven’t seen Cingrani do anything at the major league level outside of a few relief appearances. I guess I’d drop Hellickson and grab Cingrani.
Sounds like you think Cingrani will stick. I could drop Gattis. Picked him up on a flyer after I saw him take Strasburg yard yesterday. Ours is a 1 catcher league and I already have Salvador Perez. Would Gattis be the better drop? If so, then I could deal a starter. Currently have James Shields, Ian Kennedy, Mike Minor, Paul Maholm, and Hell Boy. Would you deal Maholm?
Man, I love Gattis, but he’ll lose a ton of PA’s when McCann gets back, which should be as soon as next week. I’d rather drop Gattis than Hellickson, but I’d drop Maholm before anyone.
I’m considering dropping LaRoche for Carter…Is that too bandwagon-ey? I auto-drafted and ended up with both LaRoche and Ian Desmond, so I feel far too Washington Nationals dependent/volatile. Any thoughts?
I’m in a Yahoo 5×5 vanilla league.
Yeah, that is a little much. Carter’s upside is essentially what LaRoche projects to do. If you can get Carter cheaper than that, I would consider it.
Thanks for the response!
Smart to drop Jarrod Parker for Cingrani? Or is Parker still worth a longer look?
Really didn’t look good today.
Yeah, it wasn’t pretty, but I have to see the PITCHf/x before I weigh in on this too much. For now, I still really like Parker, but yes, Cingrani is worth a pick up right now. You should be able to drop someone worse than Parker to grab him though.
Thanks for the reply, yeah think I’ll keep Parker around see if he can turn it around
I wouldn’t. Cingrani threw 91% fastballs in his first start, and doesn’t have much of a curveball. I’m not sure he has the stuff to be an effective starter right now. He was good but not great against the worst lineup in the majors… I wouldn’t give up on a potentially elite talent like Parker for him.