Roto Match Game: Guess Your Batted Ball Type
Major League Baseball Advanced Media collects and distributes the hit and pitch tracking data. This data gives the general public some additional information previously unavailable like pitch spin and batted ball angle. The system has almost removed the need for stringers (people who collect batted ball and game data) except for plays wich get immediately described for the Gameday feed. Each batted ball get the designation of a bunt, ground ball, fly ball, line drive, or popup. Sometimes, it’s tough to designate each batted ball type. Today, I am going to look at the triple point for line drives, pop ups, and fly balls.
For reference, here are all the batted designations since 2015 plotted against launch angle and batted ball velocity (Thanks to Sean Dolinar for creating the graphic).
Note: Some weird angle classification went on at the zero mark.
The area I am concentrating on borders the point at 60-mph launch speed and 35-degree launch angle. It’s the point where line drives, pop-ups, and fly balls merge into a blur. It’s time to see if you can tell them apart.
Here are six batted balls with a launch angle between 33 and 37 degrees and a launch speed between 58 and 62 mph. At least one was labeled a fly ball, line drive, and pop up. Can you guess how the stringers labeled them? Also, how would you want them labeled? I don’t have any prizes to hand out if someone happens to guess them right. Sorry. In the next couple days, I will go over the correct answers. Good luck, you’re going to need it.
Batted Ball #1
Launch Speed: 58.1mph
Launch Angle: 34.2 degrees
Batted Ball #2
Launch Speed: 59.4 mph
Launch Angle: 34.0 degrees
Batted Ball #3
Launch Speed: 61.0 mph
Launch Angle: 36.4 degrees
Batted Ball #4
Launch Speed: 60.4 mph
Launch Angle: 33.6 degrees
Batted Ball #5
Launch Speed: 61.8 mph
Launch Angle: 35.9 degrees
Batted Ball #6
Launch Speed: 60.2 mph
Launch Angle: 33.2 degrees
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
1: Flyball
2: Flyball
3: Popup
4: Linedrive
5: Flyball
6: Linedrive
#3 is the only one I feel even somewhat confident about, which means it’s probably wrong.
You have three right. Not bad.
They all look like pop-ups to me, with the last one kinda sorta looking like a fly ball. I don’t see how any of these can be seen as a line-drive.
I suppose the two that dropped were more likely to be seen as line-drives, and the ones caught, pop-ups. And I wonder what effect balls hit to the pull/oppo side have on classification. Maybe oppo more liky to be seen as a pop-up?
Agree 100% on being popups but the point has to exist somewhere.
Throwing out a guess on how stringers would interpret these, with the assumption there are two of each classification, I’ll go:
1 – Line drive
2 – Pop up
3 – Pop up
4 – Fly ball
5 – Fly ball
6 – Line drive
Two
Fun game. I would not call any of them line drives, but since we know there has to be at least one:
1. Fly ball
2. Popup
3. Popup
4. Fly ball
5. Fly ball
6. Line drive
Two right
Line Drive
Line Drive
Pop-up
Line Drive
Pop-up
Line Drive
Got four.
I guess those pop-ups must be fly balls?
Line
Line
Fly
Line
Fly
Line?
Four again
Its got to be line drive x6 then right?
No. That confused me at first too. 3 of the line drives were right and #3 and #5 are flyball/popup in some order. Each time he had 3 of the liners right and one of the others.
To quote All Star 99, “He… hits a flare!”
1. Pop up
2. Fly ball
3. Pop up
4. Line drive
5. Fly ball
6. Line drive
Three
bloop single x6
1 – PU
2 – LD
3 – PU
4 – FB
5 – FB
6 – FB
Four
1. Flyball (really a popup, but I can’t have 3 in a row)
2. Popup
3. Popup
4. Flyball
5. Flyball
6. Line drive
I don’t think 6 is much of a line drive. LD% is supposed to be indicative of something positive, and #6 is not.
They are all shanks, except #4.
Two
1. LD
2. PU
3. FB
4. LD
5. PU
6. LD
2
1. FB
2. LD
3. PU
4. LD
5. FB
6. LD
Better or Worse? lol
Four
Holy shit I nearly cried tears of joy at how apt a use you found for the concept of the triple point in baseball: kudos good sir.
Thanks
Ok, so “ducksnort/Texas leaguer/flare/bloop” all just need their own batted ball bucket! Amazing how many of these fell in for hits!
Pop
LD
Pop
LD
Fly
LD
Four
First one is a line drive
Correct
Pop
Pop
Pop
Line drive
Line drive
Line Drive
2
1. Line Drive
2. Line Drive
3. Pop up
4. Line Drive
5. Fly ball
6. Fly ball
Correct answer
1: LD
2: FB
3: PU
4: FB
5: FB
6: LD
The graph reminds me of starling murmuration, which I find extremely visually pleasing.
Pop up
Fly ball
Pop up
Fly ball
Fly ball
Line drive