Projected Lineups vs RHP/LHP (via RosterResource)

We are in the process of building a new RosterResource feature that will show regularly updated lineup projections versus RHP and LHP. It will include current stats (vs RHP/LHP), previous 3-year stats (vs RHP/LHP), and ZIPS projections (vs RHP/LHP) and will have tabs for each team. But it’s not finished yet and the timetable is still to be determined.

Until then, this page will be the temporary home. They’re available below in an embedded Google sheet with 2024 stats and 2021-24 stats. Bookmark if you plan on visiting often. Other than occasional social media posts, the link to this page will only be found in my “RosterResource Roundup”.

If you have any suggestions for the soon-to-be-built “vs RHP/LHP” feature, please feel free to let us know in the comments section.

Here’s a quick primer on how I determine what is a team’s “Go-To Projected Lineup”.

During the offseason, I look at stats, 1-yr/3-yr/career splits, trends, usage, potential platoon partners, quotes from a manager or GM, etc. and come up with my best guess for a team’s Opening Day lineup. Now that we’re here, the adjustments made will mostly be based on trends with the aforementioned factors playing a bigger part immediately after a roster change is announced and before we see an actual lineup that gives us the best indication of what they’ll do moving forward.

When it comes to projected platoons, I’d put them into a few different categories. A “straight platoon” is when one player will only be in the lineup versus LHP and a different player will only be in the lineup versus RHP. These are rare, which is why projecting platoons is not easy because they change so often. It’s easier to pick out who will be in the lineup rather than who will sit.

The other types of platoons involve certain types of players. Does anyone consider Max Muncy a platoon player? Probably not. He’s a proven veteran with a long track record of hitting both RHP and LHP. But consider his age (33), potential defensive struggles at third base, and his most recent numbers vs LHP (.642 OPS, 76 wRC+ in 2023). He’s also never had more than 600 plate appearances in a season. He’s going to get his days off because of those first two factors. When he gets his days off could be determined by the third factor. If Muncy is gonna sit, it’s likely going to be versus a tough lefty starter. That doesn’t mean he’ll never face a lefty, especially if the Dodgers face three lefties in four days. But his status as a “platoon player” is likely going to change often throughout the season. Health and production on the field will play the biggest part in how often.

Next, let’s take a talented young player like Jazz Chisholm Jr. He has a career .603 OPS and 61 wRC+ in 297 plate appearances versus lefties. That’s a pretty big sample and he hasn’t been good. But he’s also only 26 years of age with superstar potential. Superstars don’t platoon. Finding out if Chisholm can hit lefties is important, but the Marlins are also trying to win games. I’ve gone back and forth with projecting him as a platoon based on who could be getting the starts in his place. By Opening Day, I settled on “no platoon”. We’ll find out soon if this is the case. They face a lefty in their second game of the season.

For the last example, I’ll use Twins second baseman Edouard Julien. He seems to have the type of skills that would allow him to have success against any type of pitcher. But as a rookie, he was not very good against lefty pitchers (9-for-46, 2 BB, 16 K). That’s a small sample size, though, and the Twins will certainly give him his opportunities. While that didn’t come in the opener — Kyle Farmer (career .821 OPS vs LHP) started at second base against Cole Ragans —  Julien did enter the game as a substitute and singled against Ragans in the 5th inning. While Farmer is someone that will most often be in the lineup against lefties, Julien will also get his chances. How often is yet to be determined.

Projected “Go-To” Lineups vs RHP/vs LHP

 





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jadams84
27 days ago

Jazz sitting vs L so Dane Myers can play?