Rookie September Standouts

September is always an interesting month as baseball inexplicably changes its rules entirely with roster expansion up to 40 players. The month will often yield some big offensive outputs that get overlooked for fear that they were achieved against less-than-stellar competition. While I’ll grant that there are pitchers who wouldn’t normally be in the majors in rotations and bullpens, rarely do I think a guy puts an entire month of numbers against such inferior competition. Today I’m looking at a handful of rookies who’ve made some noise in September and should be firmly on your radar for 2018:

Matt Olson | Athletics

Unfortunately, we know that Olson’s season is done after a Grade 2 hamstring strain suffered on Sunday, but it was a tremendous 59-game run for the 23-year old 1B. He clocked 24 HR in just 49 hits, yielding an obscene 66 HR full season pace. Of course, that’s why we don’t take small samples and extrapolate them out. That said, he totaled 47 HR between the majors and minors so a 30-HR full season in 2018 isn’t at all out of bounds.

He does have substantial swing-and-miss in his game (28% K), but he knows the zone, too, with a 10% BB rate in the majors and a 15% mark in his minor league career. There’s a Miguel Sano vibe to Olson’s game (well, from the left side), though he’ll come much cheaper. Those looking to save auction dollars or draft value by eschewing the early 1B will be hot after someone like Olson.

Teoscar Hernandez | Blue Jays

Hernandez showed a little bit in 112 PA last year with the Astros, including a fast start (.972 OPS, 3 HR in his first 10 games highlighted by a first game HR). A 27% K rate caught up to him the rest of the way en route to a .605 OPS in his final 75 PA. He’s been able to outrun a 32% K rate in his cup of coffee this year with 5 HR supporting his .265/.301/.574 line.

The speed aspect of his game has been dormant in these 22 September games, but don’t let that fool you – he can run. He’s just 0-for-1 on the bases, but swiped 16 in Triple-A this year after three straight 30+ seasons before that. The power-speed combination could yield a 15 HR/15 SB, though a .255 AVG might be the upside if he maintains the 28% K/8% BB comb we’ve seen through his first 185 MLB PA.

Jeimer Candelario | Tigers

Candelario is the top hitting prospect (4th overall  on the Tigers after coming over in the Justin Wilson/Alex Avila deal and he’s hit the ground running with a .294/.379/.459 line including 3 HR, 12 RBI, and 17 R in 124 PA. He strikes me as someone who will be best for AL-Only leagues next year. I could see a 15-20 HR output with a .270ish AVG in a full season of work, but without any speed, that’s not terribly special. Wilmer Flores was on mixed league waiver wires for the bulk of the season after a .271/18 HR season. Even Jedd Gyorko (.272, 19 HR, 6 SB) is only on 30% of ESPN rosters.

Manuel Margot | Padres

Margot has shown better flashes throughout his rookie season, including a 47-game run with a .294/.333/.485 line including 8 HR and 7 SB from June 27th-August 25th. We haven’t seen the pop in September, but he’s got a .284/.372/.378 line with 5 SB in 86 PA. Had Margot not missed a month with a strained right calf, he might’ve put up a 20-20 season. As it stands right now, he’s at 13 HR and 17 SB. I’ll be targeting Margot in the mid-to-late teens rounds of drafts next year. He stole 40 bases per 500 PA in the minors and I think we see a 30 SB season out of him next year.