Rookie Red Flags: Kipnis, Lawrie, Giavotella

by
August 17, 2011

A few rookies called up recently, Jason Kipnis, Brett Lawrie and Johnny Giavotella, have made a splash in their short time in the majors so far. The following is a look at the areas of concern for each player going forward that may bring their hot starts back to earth.

Jason Kipnis – Jason has been a huge addition for the Indians in their run for the pennant. He does have a couple of red flags, his K% and HR/FB.

In the minors, he K’ed at a rate generally in the high teens. Since joining the major league team, that number has jump to over 29%. His K% should decrease as the season goes on, but it could still be a drag on his value. K% stabilizes fairly quickly in the majors (R of .7 at 150 PA), so we should have an idea of his K% fairly soon.

Besides the K%, he will not be able to maintain a HR/FB rate of 37.5% (43% HR/OFFB). The home runs hit by the left hander have been off fastballs up and inside.

Pitchers will begin to adjust and the home run rate will probably go down.

Brett Lawrie – Brett looks to be the real deal, but as with Kipnis, the home run numbers don’t seem sustainable. The key numbers driving Lawrie’s home run numbers are a 50% FB rate and a 23% HR/FB ratio. These numbers work out to a home run every 10 times he puts a ball in play and are in the Jose Bautista range (47% FB, 24% HR/FB).

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I would track the 2 values for the rest of the season to see if they regress (very likely) or stay at these levels. The values take a while to stabilize (R of .7 for FB% = 250 PA and 300 PA for HR/PA), but not as long as other values. Once he get a couple hundred more at bats, his true major league talent will be more evident.

Johnny Giavotella – Finally, Dayton Moore made the move to sit Chris Getz and begin to play Giavotella at 2B. The one item that seems a little out of place for Johnny is his 0.351 BABIP. After running the numbers, it is actually not that far off his xBABIP of 0.347.

Looking a little further, his 23.1% IFH% is driving up his BABIP. The current league leader for batting title qualified players is Peter Bourjos with a 16.5% IFH%. Giavotella does not have anything close to Bourjos’s speed. If Johnny’s IFH% dropped to a more reasonable level of 10%, his xBABIP would drop 30 points to 0.317, which still may be high for him. Johnny should be a decent 2B, but his 0.311 BABIP driven BA should be heading down as he gets a more normal IFH%.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Chad
14 years ago

You referred to Kipnis as Brett, just to let you know.

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Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
14 years ago
Reply to  Chad

thanks

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