Roenis Elias: Seattle’s Latest Youth Movement Gamble

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages…I’m going to have a hard time concentrating today. As you can see in the byline below this article, I am a shameless pro wrestling fan — with WrestleMania XXX coming up this Sunday, I’ll do my best to prevent my subconscious from letting this turn into an endless stream of irrelevant wrasslin’ references. Let’s take a swig of beer for the workin’ man and get this show on the road, shall we?

Roenis Elias is making his first major-league start tonight, and he’s a pretty interesting guy to talk about. The 25-year-old Cuban has lively raw stuff and a decent track record in the minors over the last couple seasons, but no one went into Spring Training expecting him to crack the major-league rotation. However, with Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker on the shelf to open the season, and veteran reclamation project Scott Baker pitching so poorly in March that the Mariners released him, the left-handed Elias finds himself making the jump from Double-A to the big leagues.

Before I even really get going, I’ll make the obvious observation that Seattle, as an organization, continues to push their prospects to the big leagues before they seem ready. Brandon Maurer is the first example that comes to the top of my head, because this is exactly what the Mariners did with Maurer last year. After all, like Elias, Maurer was also a largely unproven pitcher, with a fastball in the low-mid 90s and one major-league quality breaking pitch, making the jump straight to the majors from Double-A. Maurer proceeded to serve up home runs to pretty much any opposing player who happened to be wearing a jersey, and ended up back in the minors by June.

As for Elias, his calling card is a wipeout curveball that can buckle its fair share of knees. Take a look at the highlights from his last spring start:

Take particular note of the curveballs thrown to punch out Carlos Gonzalez, and later Brandon Barnes. Cargo nearly spins himself into the ground, while Barnes flails wildly as the pitch hits rock bottom. As God as my witness, that pitch broke him in half! There’s plenty to like about that curve paired with a fastball that sits 91-94 mph and can reach a bit higher.

But now look at those two particular pitches again. Specifically, check out the low arm slot he uses to deliver the pitch against Cargo, with the nasty elbow whip. The curve he uses to retire Barnes has a considerably higher arm slot. His usage of multiple arm angles (up to five, according to manager Lloyd McClendon) gives his primarily two-pitch arsenal more deception — the sweeping action of the curve thrown to Cargo compared to the tumbling action seen against Barnes, for example.

The obvious downside to this is that his delivery isn’t repeatable at present, which leads to major concerns over his command/control profile. Elias may be 25 years old, but that doesn’t mean he’s polished or mature as a pitcher — he played in Mexico for awhile after defecting from Cuba, and didn’t play affiliated ball until 2011, when he split his age-22 season between Rookie and A-ball. Add to this the fact that he doesn’t really have a third major league-ready pitch, and it sure sounds like a case of a guy who could be in way over his head.

This spring, despite a sparkling 2.38 earned run average on the surface, Elias posted an ugly 13:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 22.2 innings. While it’s obviously a very small sample, it’s not altogether surprising either — his career minor-league strikeout rate sits at 8.0 K/9, with a walk rate of 3.1 BB/9. That’s not bad, but it’s unimpressive considering he hasn’t thrown a pitch above the Double-A level. He’s one of those pitchers with strikeout stuff who can’t quite harness it enough to strike lots of guys out. This spring was a microcosm of how Elias could fare in the majors; it’s much easier to be “effectively wild” in the low-minors than it is in the bigs.

Any expectations of high-level production can probably rest in peace, but while he may not break the walls down, there’s one reason I’m going to be watching him closely tonight. I hear voices in my head, and they’re telling me that Elias could be one of those guys whose raw stuff is good enough for him to get by with smoke and mirrors for a month or two, until major-league hitters figure out how to attack him. At present, there really isn’t much of a scouting report out there for Elias, and with his multiple arm angles, I could see him deceiving hitters for a while.

For fantasy players, this all boils down to one simple question: Whatcha gonna do when Roenis Elias‘ raw stuff and the Seattle Mariners’ aggressive organizational promotion strategy run wild on you, brother? If you’re a mixed-league owner, there’s no chance — no chance in hell — that you’re rostering him. But for owners in deep AL-only leagues, anyone with a rotation spot (especially in a pitcher-friendly park) is worth keeping an eye on, especially when he’s got good velocity and a wipeout curve. Elias could end up being one of those guys you ride for a couple months until the league figures him out, and while that’s not exactly stealing the show, it absolutely has value in AL-only formats. And of course, if you’re not down with that, I’ve got two words for ya…