Robbie Erlin, Robbie Ross: Not Just Deep League Waiver Wire by Nicholas Minnix April 16, 2014 At least not just deep leagues in the case of the first one. And they’re not just a couple of soft-tossing left-handers whose nicknames are spelled the same way, although that’s basically where the similarities end, besides the fact that both started out in Texas’ organization. SP Robbie Erlin, San Diego Padres Ownership: ESPN 4.9% | Yahoo! 9% | CBS 43% At first I was quite surprised that Erlin is so widely available, except for at CBS, where the leagues tend to be a good bit deeper. But I then realized that he’s just another in a sea of many potentially appealing arms in his ownership class in games where there are plenty of flavors and only so many days on which to taste them. I figure, it’s not a bad idea to point out why he’s unlikely to be just a passing palate pleaser and is probably someone to savor. Erlin, 23, relies heavily on what looks to be a four-seam fastball that has a touch of natural movement on it, which is my guess as to why PITCHf/x often classifies it as a two-seamer. None of his pitches jumps out as special, but all of them, particularly his curveball, are quite good. He commands them all well, and his location is borderline exemplary. If it’s a well-called game, then this southpaw will probably be successful that night. It might have seemed to go without saying that Erlin’s control is quite good, what with his lifetime 1.8 BB/9 in 426 minor league frames. His execution and the tightness of his stuff are going to allow him to accumulate strikeouts, too – not quite at the rate that his 14 K’s in 11 1/3 innings this year imply, but certainly enough to ring up between 7.0 and 8.0 K/9, I think. Erlin leaves it up to the hit-percentage gods. But he does little to hurt himself, and there’s a touch of deception in the way he brings the ball up off his left hip until late in his windup. He’s basically a fly-ball pitcher, but he pitches down in the zone. Besides, where else would you rather have a FB hurler than PETCO Park? To put a cherry on the Erlin sundae, he has an obvious opportunity now that Josh Johnson is paying a visit to Dr. James Andrews. SD fears that the offseason acquisition may need his second career Tommy John surgery. This is my shocked face: :-|. The Friars have an easy excuse to give Matt Wisler more time to polish his game on the farm. Casey Kelly (rehab from TJS) is still a ways away from making an impact. And someone else could go down in the meantime. SP Robbie Ross, Texas Rangers Ownership: ESPN 2.8% | Yahoo! 5% | CBS 27% Ross, 24, might not be an obvious candidate for your fantasy squad, except that he’s fashioned an ERA of 1.00 after three starts (18 innings). Well, you say, that surely can’t last. And it won’t. But the regression to his mean expected performance could be quite gradual, despite what his early-season FIP and xFIP suggest. Those metrics penalize him for the eight walks and meager total of 13 strikeouts thus far. Ross was quite wild as he walked six in his April 9 start at the Boston Red Sox. Otherwise, his control has been very good; historically, that’s also the case. He won’t generate the same kind of strikeout percentage that Erlin will, but he shouldn’t be any worse in that department than, say, Matt Harrison has been. A little more than a month ago, Jack Weiland touched on why we can’t readily dismiss Ross from our fantasy periphery. The development of his changeup is probably essential for him to have staying power in the rotation. He’s resorted to it only a handful of times so far, with great results, but we’d like to see more. The framework is here for him to remain an asset in 15-team mixed leagues. It’s capped by his heavy ground-ball tendency – around 56 percent for his career, at 72 percent early in 2014. More pertinently, because he calls Globe Life Park home, he must continue to keep the ball out of the air. That lifetime 22.5 percent fly-ball rate is pretty. If you’re gonna play in Texas, you gotta have a fiddle in the band. And if you’re gonna pitch in Texas, you gotta keep the rawhide on land. Ross has a better chance to stick in Texas’ starting five than Tanner Scheppers does when Harrison returns to action, in my opinion. The right-hander did more than enough in spring training to convince the Rangers that he deserved a rotation spot, but he couldn’t hack it as a starter in the minors. Consistency has often eluded him. Ross also cut his MLB teeth in the bullpen, but on the other hand, he spent his entire time on the farm as a starter. And who knows: An ailment could strike Colby Lewis again or some other member of the top five in the near future.