Reviewing the Rookie Hitters — Through May 15, 2023

Let’s complete our review of rookie hitters with a final four names, three of which were top prospects, and another delivering elite fantasy value.

Brett Baty was ranked as the 22nd best prospect heading into the season, slapped with a 70/70 Raw Power grade and 55 FV. He posted HR/FB rates of at least 20% in the minors in 2021 and 2022, though his ISO marks were a little less impressive. Hitting too many ground balls has been an issue and has hampered his power output in the past. So far this season with the Mets, he has still struggled to lift the ball, posting a sub-30% FB%. He owns a healthy maxEV of 113.7 MPH, but isn’t able to take full advantage of those hard hit balls with such a low rate ending up in the air. It’s not typical to see just a 12.5% HR/FB rate paired with such a strong maxEV.

Despite an above average LD%, low IFFB%, and high GB%, he sports a below league average .281 BABIP. He posted elite BABIP marks during those same minor league stints in which he posted 20%+ HR/FB rates, so he seemingly is capable of much better. In 84 PAs, he’s done little for fantasy owners. However, a .358 xwOBA, which is significantly above his current .306 mark, suggest much better times ahead. I think his low FB% could cap his home run potential, at least in the short-term, but if you own him in a deeper league, I’d hold on tight.

Miguel Vargas was the Dodgers’ fourth ranked and league’s 49th ranked prospect heading into the season, but mostly due to his Hit grade, as opposed to his power potential. He had shown excellent plate discipline in the minors, with nearly as many walks as strikeouts at Triple-A last year. He has also been a strong BABIPer, posting a mark no lower than .331, which is pretty remarkable given how many different minor league stops he has made. His power has been underwhelming, with a 13.3% HR/FB rate and a .218 ISO his peak marks, but paired with his strikeout rate and fly ball tendency, could maaaaaaybe result in 20 home runs.

In about a quarter of a season this year, everything looks right in line with what should have been expected, except for his BABIP, which sits at a lowly .258. Statcast calculates his xBA at .258, versus a .225 actual mark, suggesting he’s been pretty unlucky that more balls in play haven’t fallen for hits. Right now, he appears to be the type of hitter typically undervalued in fantasy leagues, in which he’ll contribute a bit in both power and speed, without standing out in either. That might make him a low end option in shallow leagues. If your league uses OBP instead of batting average, his value gets a significant bump.

The 62nd best prospect heading into the season, Zach Neto has taken over as the Angels’ starting shortstop, even though he never saw a pitch at the Triple-A level. While I support promoting pitchers straight from Double-A, I’m usually skeptical that a hitter skipping Triple-A will succeed in the Majors immediately. Neto actually hasn’t played much in the minors at all, accumulating just 201 PAs between High-A and Double-A, all coming since last year. His scouting grades don’t suggest such an exciting fantasy player, though he did hit eight home runs and steal eight bases (funny, at every stop, he hit the same number of home runs as he stole bases!), which if multiplied out to 600 PAs, would have made him go 24/24, which is exciting.

So far in the Majors, he has rarely taken a walk (just three in 107 PAs), but making excellent contact. After looking at his plate discipline metrics, this is actually a case of strong contact skills allowing him to put the ball in play before he has the opportunity to walk, as opposed to swinging at everything. More walks would be nice, but I’d rather a hitter not walk because he’s just so good at making contact than because he swings at everything and eventually one of those swings would put the ball in play.

He has shown below average power with a 7.1% HR/FB rate and .125 ISO, but a 109.9 MPH maxEV is surprisingly solid. Sadly, he has so far broken his streak of hitting the same number of home runs as steals recorded, as he has hit two dingers, but swiped just one base. Statcast thinks he should be performing a bit better, mostly on the power side, which is good, but I don’t think it’s enough to make him worthwhile in shallower leagues. This is especially true as the ninth place hitter. For a guy who skipped Triple-A and has so little minor league experience, he has actually hit admirably.

With 70 grade speed, and even 50/50 Raw Power, many were excited when Esteury Ruiz was first recalled by the Padres last year. He didn’t hit in 36 PAs and stole just one base, but now a member of the lowly Athletics, there was much more of an opportunity for him to seize a starting role. Now 186 PAs in, and he’s leading all of baseball with 19 steals. He’s also been caught just three times, so there’s absolutely no reason to think he would stop running, outside of a leg injury. He has rarely walked and shown little power, but a .331 BABIP has resulted in a decent enough .330 OBP that has kept him atop the lineup since mid-April. It’s too bad he leads off for the Athletics, the fourth lowest scoring team in baseball, as he’s scored just 18 runs.