Reviewing the Rookie Hitters — Through June 11, 2023

Nearly a month ago, I reviewed four of the top rookie hitters. Let’s now revisit these hitters, how they have performed since, and how their overall season line looks.

In my original post, Anthony Volpe was doing the absolute bare minimum needed to stay in the lineup, as he posted just a .295 wOBA. Of course, fantasy owners were satisfied, thanks to his combination of home runs and stolen bases, even if it came with a weak batting average. Since then, he has completely fallen apart offensively. He has rarely been walking, has struck out 36.6% of the time, and his batted balls are simply not falling in for hits, as his .180 BABIP can attest (that’s most definitely a lot of bad luck).

I’m kind of shocked he’s still in the Majors, though perhaps more baffling is that he has sat in favor of Oswaldo Cabrera twice in the last six games. Why on Earth would you keep him in the Majors if you aren’t going to play him absolutely every day?! The Yankees don’t usually make odd lineup decisions like this, so it’s a surprise. He needs to play every single day, whether it’s the Majors or minors. Personally, I would continue starting him for as long as he remains the starter, though it must be frustrating when he’s on the bench. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds himself back in the minors soon.

I’m really quite annoyed that I decided to use another system’s projections for the first time this year, rather than create my own Pod Projections, as one of the hitters I passed over was Corbin Carroll, whose projections were just meh. I feel like I would have personally been more bullish and given myself a better chance of buying him on auction day, but given the speed of auctions and snake drafts, it was impossible to make mental adjustments for every single player. That said, holy cow has Carroll become a fantasy monster in short order! While he was very good leading up to my first rookie review article, he has exploded since, showing massive power, walking a ton, and cutting down on his strikeout rate. Literally everything you could hope for, he has achieved over the past month.

Interestingly, on the season, Statcast calculates an xwOBA significantly below his current mark. That surprises me as nothing in his profile truly stands out as being fluky. Given that he’s done this in the minors, I see little reason to think owners will regret not trying to sell high. I question whether he could sustain this sub-20% strikeout rate, as this is a career best for him, but that’s about all of my concerns.

Speaking of being on fire since my last article, Gunnar Henderson also joined the party. While his walk and strikeout rates have actually turned in the wrong direction, his power has exploded, and his batted balls are suddenly falling for hits at a ridiculous rate (.404 BABIP). Sure enough, the high BABIP simply made up for the weak BABIP coming into last article, when it was just .226. This BABIP surge has pushed his season line up to an above average .308.

In my original article, I seemed to have nailed it with my call:

Overall, I see a lot I like here and think this is a great opportunity to buy low. This is especially true in a keeper league, particularly if he’s at a cheap keeper price.

Couldn’t have timed that buy low call any better! Of course, I didn’t do such a thing in any of my leagues, but maybe you did. I think his mere four steals is probably still a bit disappointing, and he still hasn’t been great overall for fantasy owners given the paltry 21 RBI and low .236 batting average. But his mid-teen walk rate gives him a huge boost in OBP leagues and has allowed him to score 13 more runs than RBI he has tallied. I’m guessing his strikeout rate will improve a bit at some point, which could push his batting average into acceptable territory, to go along with contributions across the board everywhere else.

Masataka Yoshida has lost power since my first review, but everything else has remained in line. He continues to show excellent plate discipline, barely striking out more than he has walked. In my first review, I shared my concern about his batted ball profile, which was ground ball heavy and light on liners. Well, he hasn’t changed that, which really caps his power upside and also hampers his BABIP potential given the dearth of liners. But hey, it’s still early and his first taste of MLB action, so perhaps his profile transforms as he continues getting acclimated.

I think he’ll probably remain a better real life player than fantasy asset, as the power and speed, while perfectly fine, don’t stand out enough for fantasy owners. However, he gets a nice boost in OBP leagues given his plate patience.