Reviewing the Rookie Hitters — Through Jul 23, 2023

Let’s flip back to the rookie hitters and discuss another four recent recalls.

Tyler Soderstrom | OAK

Soderstrom was the Athletics top ranked prospect and 30th overall. Since he’s a catcher, you always have to dive into the scouting reports to figure out how much of his top prospect status is due to his defense versus his offense. While good defense might get him to the Majors quicker and give him a longer leash during an offensive slump, his fielding won’t add to your home run category total. From his scouting grades, it becomes immediately obvious that this is a bat-first catching prospect who might not even last behind the plate. As long as he’s catcher eligible this year, the A’s could play him wherever they want and that’s fine with me!

Soderstrom has shown big power in the minors, supporting his 60/70 Game Power and Raw Power grades. He posted a HR/FB rate over 30% at Triple-A and has actually posted a higher and higher mark at each rung of the minor league ladder, which is quite impressive. Oddly, his ISO marks actually moved in the opposite direction before rebounding sharply this season and finishing at a professional best. One thing holding back his power output is a relatively low FB%, which had finished in the low-30% range at Double-A last year and Triple-A this year. He’s not taking full advantage of his home run power if he’s not lifting the ball at a higher rate.

Strikeouts haven’t been a major issue and he hasn’t struggled to make contact either, which is good to see. Surprisingly, he hasn’t walked a lot, which is something you would expect more of thinking pitchers would be carful throwing him strikes given his power. That just hasn’t happened. So his OBP doesn’t figure to be very good. And despite a reasonable batted ball profile, his BABIP marks have been pretty meh, resulting in a low projected batting average too.

He looks like a catcher eligible version of Adam Duvall, with lots of power, and not much else. Unfortunately, he also calls home the second worst ballpark for left-handed home runs and is surrounded by the worst offense in baseball by wOBA. As a result, I’m not particularly excited about his fantasy potential this year. Surely he’s worth an add in deep mixed and AL-Only leagues with two catchers, though.

Zack Gelof | OAK

The youth movement is in full effect in Oakland! Gelof was the team’s fifth ranked prospect with scouting grades that suggest no standout tools or skills, but some slightly positive contributions across the board. These are the types typically undervalued by the fantasy community that end up going 15/10 or something. Alone, that’s not very exciting, but that combo does have value.

For someone with only mediocre power grades, it’s surprising to see that he has posted HR/FB rates in the mid-to-high teens and even a mark over 20% back in Single-A in 2021. His ISO has also finished above .200 twice out of three reasonable samples. So maybe the power is a bit better than he’s given credit for. Of course, he has the same problem as Soderstrom, as the A’s home park also ranks second worst for right-handed home runs!

He does steal bases though and swiped 20 over a half season at Triple-A this year. He currently ranks 21st out of 497 batters in Sprint Speed, so he’s clearly fast. He’s already attempted three steals, too, so it’s a good sign of his willingness to run at the big league level.

His walk and strikeout rates are both higher than average, which point to a potentially weak batting average, but a boost in value in OBP leagues. The good news is that he’s had a history of high BABIP marks in the minors, supported by a high line drive rate and low pop-up rate.

Overall, this looks like a nice little skill set with potential contributions across the board, but with some risk of a poor batting average. Obviously, his home park and lineup limit his upside, but he’s still more than worth looking into in most formats if you need an MI.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand | CIN

After hitting four homers with a 1.748 OPS in just 26 at-bats during spring training, fantasy owners and Reds fans have been eagerly awaiting the Reds to clear some room to make way for Encarnacion-Strand’s MLB debut. They finally have. Well, not so much making room, as they are now overflowing with players, but have accepted the reality that he needs to be in the Majors and even if some others will lose a bit of playing time, so be it.

Given the hype here, it’s surprising to see that he was ranked just 13th among Reds prospects before the season started. But with 50/60 Game Power and 70/70 Raw Power, it was clear he was not to be ignored. I would imagine his Game Power grades would be increased if these grades were done again, taking this year into account.

He has never posted a HR/FB rate below 20% and has posted an ISO over .300 several times, including this year at Triple-A. That’s mammoth power. He has taken full advantage too, posting FB% marks over 40%. That’s what you want to see from someone with this much power. With a maxEV of 114 MPH at Triple-A this year, his power is clearly no fluke.

What I love to see combined with the power is an improved strikeout rate and a jump in walk rate. He posted professional bests at Triple-A this year, which bodes well for his MLB transition. And if you’re worried about strikeouts eventually coming an hurting his batting average, you’ll be excited to learn that he has consistently posted high BABIP marks in the minors. He has never posted a mark below .353, which is quite remarkable. So he has the potential to contribute in all counting stats except steals, while not even hurting in batting average, and perhaps helping if his BABIP lands closer to his minor league numbers.

Oh, and he hits in a home ballpark that ranks first in baseball in right-handed home runs. He could be a difference maker in fantasy leagues this year.

Sal Frelick | MIL

The Brewers third best prospect and 69th overall, Frelick got the call to make his MLB debut after injuries and poor performance have opened up a starting outfield job. He’s not your typical top fantasy prospect, as he lacks power and only has good, not great, speed.

On the power front, he has never reached double digit HR/FB rates, and actually just posted the lowest mark of his pro career at Triple-A this year, along with a sub-.100 ISO. So any home runs here are going to be thanks to lots of balls in play due to his strong contact ability, as opposed to any sort of actual power. He does have speed though, having stolen 24 bases last year and eight so far this year at Triple-A. That gives him 20 steal upside.

His plate discipline has been fantastic. He has walked at a double clip a number of times, while he has constantly improved his SwStk% and his strikeout rate dipped into single digits during his two stints at Triple-A. It means it’ll be hard for him to hurt your batting average and makes him a good future leadoff candidate.

While the home park and offensive cast is better than Gelof has, I think Gelof has the more desirable fantasy skill set right now given his better power potential. Of course, they play different positions and are in different leagues, so you could either add both or choose the one available in your league.