Reviewing the 2017 HR/FB Surgers

Geez, I could have blindly selected a handful of hitters whose HR/FB rates were due to rise in 2017 and probably would have hit on the majority! As I continue to recap my preseason lists, let’s move on to my 2017 HR/FB rate surgers. I compared my 2016 Statcast-fueled xHR/FB rate to the hitter’s actual HR/FB rate and identified six hitters whose xHR/FB rates were significantly above their actual marks, suggesting serious upside. Let’s see how these hitters performed.

Not too shabby, as four of the five hitters did enjoy a HR/FB rate spike. And although the league average HR/FB rate jumped, the group increased their mark by an average that outpaced the league.

Of course, the player on the top of the list posted his HR/FB rate in just 53 at-bats. Raul Mondesi competed for the Royals second base job, but wOBA’d just .204, got demoted to them minors in late April, and returned for part-time duty when rosters expanded in September. He did post a 14.6% HR/FB rate during his time at Triple-A though, so if he could ever get that strikeout rate under control without sacrificing his power, we could see a nice power/speed combo from him.

Once again, a concussion cut Brandon Belt’s season short and this has been a recurring issue. But while on the field, his HR/FB rate did fully rebound. You know what I’d love to see? Belt in another uniform! AT&T Park has completely sapped his power — his career home HR/FB rate sits at just 8.2%, versus a 15.2% in away parks. You rarely see such a wide gap between home and away marks, with the lower value coming at home. Belt has been a consistent HR/FB rate underperformer because of his home park, despite the fact that my equation does account for park factors (or attempts to!).

I wish Ryan Schimpf remained in the Majors all season just to see what his final numbers would have ended up looking like. He is the most extreme hitter I have ever come across, as he sits at or near the top or bottom of many statistical categories. During his short stay with the Padres (he recorded just 165 at-bats before getting demoted), his HR/FB rate did rise above 20%, and he continued to show the power at Triple-A. He’s poor defensively though, so even given the big power and excellent plate patience, he may not get another chance at a starting job.

Man, so Byung-ho Park puts on a show in spring training, which wasn’t enough to convince the Twins to carry him on their opening day roster, and then he does squat while spending the entire season at Triple-A. His mammoth Brls/BBE mark in 2016 suggested legitimate power, but his offensive game has just collapsed. At age 31, with nearly 600 Triple-A plate appearances and 244 MLB plate appearances, is it too early to confirm that he was a bust?

Nick Castellanos appeared all over my 2017 upside lists and although his full season counting stats make it appear this was a breakout, it actually wasn’t…just a nice boost from additional plate appearances. His HR/FB rate did increase, but barely, and didn’t come close to where his 2016 xHR/FB rate stood. He did cut his SwStk% and strikeout rate though and I would bet he appears on my BABIP upside list given another high line drive rate and tiny pop-up rate. But he won’t come nearly as cheaply as he did heading into 2017.

According to Pro Sports Transactions’ amazing database, Matt Carpenter battled a myriad of injuries that only knocked him out a game or two, but may have contributed to a decline in ISO and HR/FB rate. Though his batted ball profile has tilted heavily toward fly balls in recent years, his BABIP should still rebound somewhat, so there’s no need to worry about that ugly .241 batting average.