Reviewing the 2016 RotoGraphs Staff Picks

I’m needlessly competitive. I’ll manufacture any kind of pathetic excuse to turn literally anything into a contest, especially if there’s a moderately easy way to tally stats for it. So, let’s review the RotoGraphs staff’s picks for the 2016 season.

We make picks every season, but as I took up curating them last season, I wanted to hold us accountable while also simply seeing how well we did. Hindsight-spoiler: we actually did pretty poorly. Having not yet evaluated the results whatsoever, I hope for better but secretly anticipate more of the same.

The rules: are dumb and contrived. You’re welcome! Anyway, I choose a winner for each category based on, yes, stats, but also the uniqueness of the pick. For example, picking Noah Syndergaard as 2016’s best sophomore pitcher wasn’t exactly groundbreaking.

Again, this is mostly for fun, but it’s also worth rewarding, with the weakest of praise, those who excelled with their picks. As a reminder, I describe the criteria for each category in the original post. With that said, let’s needlessly compete!

Shallow Sleeper

Hitter: Stephen Piscotty (Blake Murphy 1)
Pitcher: Julio Teheran (Scott Spratt 1)

It’s my fault for making the criterion a little too loose. Christian Yelich easily outperformed every other hitter, but he also was basically a top-100 player in drafts, per NFBC ADP. Piscotty, meanwhile, was drafted 50th among outfielders and finished 29th, per ESPN’s Player Rater.

Pitchers were a disaster. Drew Smyly and Taijuan Walker flashed promise, and I maintain Raisel Iglesias could have easily earned his keep here. I wrote off Teheran after his walk rate (BB/9) spiked last year. I’m such a fool; alas, Scott is not.

Deep Sleeper

Hitter: Wil Myers (Rylan Edwards 0.5, Jeff Zimmerman 0.5)
Pitcher: Kyle Hendricks (Rylan Edwards 1.5)

Good on you, Rylan. Lots of good picks throughout — really, the only bad hitter picks were Domingo Santana, Brett Lawrie, A.J. Reed, and Nick Hundley. Pitchers fared a little worse, but some really solid tabs here: Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Robbie Ray. When it comes down to it, though, Myers and Hendricks surely carried many fantasy teams this year. Myers finally lived up to his prospect hype; Hendricks merely repeated his quiet excellence from last year, but with an excellent strand rate (LOB%).

UDFA

Hitter: Jonathan Villar (Tanner Bell 1)
Pitcher: Vince Velasquez (Tanner Bell 2)

Now it’s Tanner’s turn to rake in the praise. Every time I talk about Villar, I say: anyone who remembers Villar’s debut in 2013 has kept tabs on him since then, hoping for this kind of breakout. He finally demonstrated better plate discipline that could earn him a full-time job this season — I know Mike Podhorzer and I have praised him. It was fundamentally a matter of “if.” “If” became “then,” and now Villar is basically a unanimous 2nd-round pick.

Velasquez struck out 16 in a game but ended the season on a somewhat sour note. There’s upside there, but consistency eludes him. Ray and Jerad Eickhoff made for good picks here, too, but I already praised Ray elsewhere, which means I need to be a little more diligent in my pick verification.

Rookie

Hitter: Trea Turner (Birchwood Bros. 1)
Pitcher: Steven Matz (Paul Kastava 0.33, Zach Sanders 0.33, Josh Shepardson 0.33)

Lots of Corey Seager picks here, but Turner basically generated equivalent value in half the time. Honestly can’t believe he finished the season the No.-12 outfielder. Insane. The pitcher picks were a little more boring and, sadly, mostly depressing, given the high number of Jose Berrios shares. But Matz did well, and he will continue to do well as long as his elbow doesn’t impede him.

Sophomore

Hitter: Kris Bryant (Tanner Bell 2.33, Brad Johnson 0.33, Blake Murphy 1.33)
Pitcher: Noah Syndergaard (I am not dividing a point among 12 people, you ding dongs)

I forgot how high people were on Carlos Correa. Wow. I’m going to pat myself on the back for picking someone unique in Piscotty, but he didn’t hold a candle to Bryant, who surprisingly only got three votes. What a monster. Syndergaard might have been the most boring pick, in that it was universal and overwhelmingly correct.

Comeback Player

Hitter: Jean Segura (Jeff Zimmerman 1.5)
Pitcher: Yu Darvish (Brad Johnson 1.33)

The list of comeback hitters is beautiful. And while our definitions of “comeback” differ, one thing is certain: Jeff’s pick of Segura is singular and golden. I remember scoffing at this pick, being a disenfranchised Angels fan and knowing Segura had struggled mightily for two years. Darvish missed 2015 due to Tommy John surgery and twirled vintage Darvish innings upon his return, even if for only half a season.

Bust

Hitter: Kyle Schwarber (Paul Kastava 1.33), Miguel Sano (Scott Spratt 1.5)
Starter: James Shields (Rylan Edwards 2, Scott Strandberg 0.5)
Reliever: Brad Boxberger (Alex Chamberlain 1)

The hitter bust picks are solid. Some Correa in there, a little Dee Gordon. But there are two winners here, for very-obviously different reasons: Schwarber blew out his knee and missed the entire season, while Sano finished the season the 39th-best third baseman. I mean, at least you could drop Schwarber or put him on the disabled list. Most owners suffered through a pretty bad season from Sano and likely didn’t drop him no matter how shallow the league because of their steep draft-day investments. So, personally, I think Sano is the true bust here. But I acknowledge it would be egregious to omit Schwarber.

Shields was an unmitigated disaster. While Sonny Gray and Jordan Zimmerman showed lapses in effectiveness, they paled in comparison to the virtually unownable Shields.

The relief pitcher landscape is a nightmare every year, which is why I typically invest minimally in closers. The entire staff made good picks — only Tanner picked Hector Rondon, who pitched very well but had his role eventually usurped by Aroldis Chapman. So there, too, was validity to his pick. Therefore, it’s hard to single out any one terrible closer. But I have to give the honors to Boxberger, who was drafted 21st among closers yet didn’t record a single save and posted an atrocious 7.03 BB/9 in a meager 24.1 innings.

* * *

The winner is… Tanner Bell! Kudos.

Epilogue: It would probably behoove me to figure out who made the worst picks, too, but I’m a company man… and I also don’t want to find out it was me.

2017 staff picks coming in March. Is it spring yet?