Reviewing the 2015 xHR/FB Rate Overachievers Avoid List

Yesterday, I reviewed my preseason target list of hitters whose xHR/FB rates suggested significant HR/FB rate upside in 2015. Today I’ll recap the opposite end, those hitters who my xHR/FB rate equation suggested had significant HR/FB rate downside. These were the guys who most outperformed their xHR/FB rates in 2014 and were at risk of a decline.

Chris Carter

2014 — 15.3% xHR/FB vs 21.9% actual HR/FB
2015 — 18.9% HR/FB

Carter did indeed post a career low HR/FB rate, a mark that slipped under 20% for the first time. However, I thought there was slightly more downside here. Minute Maid Park has a lot to do with propping up his HR/FB rate, as it sports a 104 RHH HR park factor and Carter posted a crazy 26.6%/11.1% home/away HR/FB rate split. Since he hit just .199 and provides no defensive value, he lost a lot of playing time this season. He might see an even further cut next year so he’s not the best candidate to bet on a rebound.

George Springer

2014 — 21.4% xHR/FB vs 27.8% actual HR/FB
2015 — 18.8% HR/FB

Springer debuted with a bang last year, hitting 20 homers in just 295 at-bats and posting a .237 ISO. While his xHR/FB rate did validate that he possesses immense home run power, it didn’t think it was that monstrous. He dealt with a bunch of injuries this year, so it’s not totally fair to compare his performance to last year. But a mid-to-high 20% HR/FB rate was going to be extremely difficult to repeat, perfect health or not. Because his steals returned and he cut down on his massive strikeout rate, he’s heading into 2016 perhaps looking even more exciting than he did heading into this year. And yet, he might even come cheaper.

Jose Abreu

2014 — 22.8% xHR/FB vs 26.9% actual HR/FB
2015 — 19.7% HR/FB

Abreu sat in a very similar situation as Springer above in that he probably wasn’t that good, but still very, very good. As many assumed, he wasn’t able to replicate his sensational rookie season at the plate, but he still remained an excellent hitter. More fly balls would help and would ensure he stays above the 30 homer barrier.

Oswaldo Arcia

2014 — 15.8% xHR/FB vs 19.4% actual HR/FB
2015 — 11.1% HR/FB

Arcia’s appearance on this list was valuable in that he was a trendy sleeper and seeing his name here may have contributed to your decision to avoid him on draft day. I was a big fan of his heading into 2014, but he seemed to have overperformed and then back issues cropped up which sealed his fate in my eyes. That 2015 HR/FB rate came in just 65 plate appearances and since he was terrible in Triple-A, having posted just a .290 wOBA, one wonders what his future is in Minnesota.

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Just like the underachiever target list published yesterday, every pick here saw their HR/FB rate decline, three of the four by a significant rate. A 1.000 batting average over a two game span is something I’ll take every time! But it gives me confidence that it’s worth continuing these lists each year.