Reviewing Steamer and I: James Shields

Finally, it’s the last recap of my projections from the 2015 season! The Pod Projections are derived using the methodology outlined in my just released eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance. As usual, Steamer and I is a comparison of my projection to Steamer’s. Steamer was significantly more bullish on James Shields, who moved to the National League and joined the Padres, both of which should have boosted his fantasy value. It didn’t of course, as his ERA and WHIP both jumped, despite a career high strikeout rate.

Steamer and I: James Shields

System	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	BABIP	LOB%
Pod	220	3.67	1.24	7.7	2.3	0.96	20.3%	6.2%	0.300	73.0%
Steamer	210	3.47	1.19	8.2	2.2	0.84	21.9%	5.7%	0.296	72.2%
2015	202.1	3.91	1.33	9.6	3.6	1.47	25.1%	9.4%	0.299	79.9%

In my original writeup, I noted how interesting it was that Steamer was most pessimistic of the projections on Shields’ player page, and yet I was even more bearish. So, it was clear that I represented one of the most pessimistic forecasts out there.

So to begin, Shields ended up recording the fewest number of innings over a full season in his career. He had pitched 225+ innings for four straight seasons (with a high of a whopping 249.1 back in 2011!), so this was a rather large decline. Though we could blame the higher ERA on knocking him out of games earlier, he has had higher ERAs with greater innings totals in the past. Obviously, Steamer and I were both off here.

Let’s move along to Shields’ strikeout rate. Heading into the 2015 season, his strikeout rate had fallen for two straight seasons to its lowest mark since 2009. Both Steamer and I forecasted a rebound, Steamer more so than I. It seems like Steamer expected a normal rebound, plus added a bonus for the move to the National League. I factored in the move to the NL, but given Shields’ age, was less optimistic that we should assume his strikeout rate would rebound had he stayed in the American League.

We were both wrong, especially me. As mentioned in the intro, Shields’ strikeout rate surged to a career high. Although his fastball lost 1.4 mph of average velocity, it notched a new career best SwStk% mark! His changeup’s SwStk% also rebounded, while his curve (knuckle curve?) matched his famed changeup’s SwStk%, given him another effective weapon. These positive changes don’t typically occur at age 33!

Unfortunately, along with that strikeout rate spike came a reduction in control. His walk rate more than doubled to a new career high by sizable amount, as his Zone% fell below 40% for the first time. That was mostly due to his changeup, which hit the zone 10% less often than his career average. Both Steamer and I expected some regression from his 2014 mark, right back to prior levels. Perhaps Shields deliberately threw his changeup outside the zone more often this season to induce swings and misses, as his fastball lost some gas.

As we watched the Padres build a strange roster, it became clear that the team was going to trot out a poor defensive unit. As a result, I projected an above-league average BABIP of .300, of which Shields nearly matched exactly. I’m not sure if Steamer is aware of team defenses and accounts for it in BABIP projections. The .299 BABIP was his highest since 2010.

Perhaps the largest gap between projected and actual performance was the HR/9 rate. We can immediately see what caused it by looking at Shields’ inflated HR/FB rate. That 17.6% mark was easily the highest of his career and actually led all qualified starters. We could sit here coming up with explanations all we want, but it was almost certainly a one-year blip and he’ll probably be back to normal in 2016.

Because I projected worse underlying skills, my ERA and WHIP projections turned out closer than Steamer’s, but I can’t really say I was right. In fact, I was really only right about the poor defense inflating his BABIP, but was actually more like a blind squirrel finding an acorn with the ERA and WHIP. It’s possible that Shields is slightly undervalued in leagues this year, but beats me on how to project those skills!