Reviewing ESPN Home Run Tracker Analysis: The 2015 Upsiders

Today I’ll review another article focused on identifying hitters with home run upside. On Monday, I recapped the names based on my xHR/FB rate equation, while today I will discuss the list I cobbled together using ESPN Home Run Tracker. What’s always interesting is when both methods disagree and I’m not always sure which to believe. I tend to side with the xHR/FB rate equation though just because the formula uses significantly more data points.

Buster Posey

2014 — 13.4% HR/FB
2015 — 11.0% HR/FB

Already with the first name, I mentioned in my writeup that Posey’s distance had declined from 2013 to 2014 and so it was strange to find him on any upside list. I concluded that I would believe the xHR/FB rate, which doesn’t actually portend any upside. So although he did make this list due to his low Just Enough %, my comments suggested he didn’t have any actually have that power upside. Sure enough, Posey’s HR/FB rate dropped back closer to his 2011 and 2013 marks.

Oswaldo Arcia

2014 — 19.4% HR/FB
2015 — 11.1% HR/FB

Would you look at that, yet another name whose inclusion is at odds with my equation. In fact, Arcia actually made my overachiever list I published yesterday! Unfortunately, Arcia received all of 65 plate appearances with the Twins this year, so his HR/FB rate is hardly meaningful.

Charlie Blackmon

2014 — 10.4% HR/FB
2015 — 9.3% HR/FB

Although technically wrong as Blackmon’s HR/FB rate fell, perhaps it validated his power somewhat and gave you the confidence to draft him after his 2014 breakout. Still, this is yet another black mark on this method of identifying home run upside.

Mike Moustakas

2014 — 9.4% HR/FB
2015 — 11.2% HR/FB

There it is! The first correct name on this list. And hey, I even predicted it! It’s still pretty shocking to me that Moustakas just set a career high HR/FB rate and it was just 11.2%. That’s like barely above the league average. Of course, he had a better chance of enjoying a major power breakout when he was pulling the ball 50% of the time. But that killed his BABIP, so he changed things up, going the other way significantly more this year. That he was able to do that and still post a career high ISO is a great sign. Now the question is whether he has even further upside inside his bat.

Pedro Alvarez

2014 — 16.2% HR/FB
2015 — 32.5% HR/FB

Two in a row, I’m on fire! Alvarez actually led all batters with at least 200 plate appearances in HR/FB rate, as he literally doubled his mark from last year. A rebound in Pull% likely helped and his batted ball distance jumped by more than 10 feet. Unfortunately, he’s a platoon player who won’t contribute positive value in batting average or runs scored, so at best he’s an asset in two categories. That essentially kills his mixed league potential.

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So as I suspected, this method didn’t perform as well as going by my xHR/FB rate. Of course, it’s a tiny sample size, but there is more randomness given how few data points are being used here. I have proven that using ESPN Home Run Tracker does have value, but perhaps it’s more on the aggregate scale, rather than for individual players.