Reviewing Brad Johnson’s 2015 Bold Predictions

I had a weird experience with my bold predictions. A majority of my predictions were close to right. However, I ultimately fell way short of my goal to hit .400. Let’s get to it.

1. Carlos Carrasco will be a top five pitcher

Carrasco posted merely decent fantasy stats with 14 wins, 10.58 K/9, 3.63 ERA, and 1.07 WHIP. Almost everybody who drafted him got their money’s worth. I feel vindicated in my bullish prognostications given his 2.84 FIP and 2.66 xFIP.

However, I said he would be a top five pitcher. By underperforming his peripherals, he didn’t come close for fantasy owners. In the real world, he tied Jose Quintana for the 14th most WAR among pitchers (4.8 WAR). Not bad, but not quite correct.

0-for-1 (1 almost)

2. Mark Trumbo will lead the NL in home runs

Trumbo hit some home runs – 22 of them. The majority were bashed in the American League. A big swing-and-a-miss for a variety of reasons here.

0-for-2

3. Jarrod Dyson Billy Burns will steal more bases than Carlos Gomez

My thought process was simple – I thought Gomez would steal about 20 bases. I also thought Dyson and Burns would play much more than in past seasons. I was right with Burns. Dyson simply runs a lot in his limited action.

Both Dyson and Burns stole 26 bases. Gomez swiped just 17. Commenters were all over me for originally going with Dyson, but this worked both ways.

1-for-3

4. Carter Capps and Dominic Leone will emerge as top non-closing relievers

In a sense, Capps may have been the greatest triumph of my 2015 prognosticating. With a luck neutral 1.16 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 16.84 K/9, and 2.03 BB/9, he may have been the top reliever in all of baseball. At least on a rate basis. Unfortunately, he spent the early portion of the season in the minors leagues then missed everything after August 2 with an elbow strain. Had he remained healthy, he would have wrested the closer job from A.J. Ramos too.

As right as I was about Capps, I was wrong about Leone. There’s a lesson here. It’s easy to get hung up on a player’s stuff in the previous season. It won’t always make a cameo in the next season. That’s what happened with Leone. He still racked up the whiffs. Unfortunately, his velocity dropped over one mph and his command went out the window. He could re-emerge next season as a dark horse closing candidate for the Diamondbacks.

1-for-4 (2 almosts)

5. Zach McAllister will be this season’s Wade Davis

Hmm…I regret my lack of specificity. McAllister thrived in the bullpen with 10.94 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 2.49 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and a 3.06 FIP over 65 innings. He never really reached that level of must-roster non-closer, but I made effective use of him in many of my leagues. His fastball did play up in the pen – above 95 mph. I could probably interpret this one either way.

1-for-5 (3 almosts)

6. Aramis Ramirez will hit 25 home runs and decide to continue playing

Ramirez hit 17 home runs in 516 plate appearances. I’ve yet to see anybody say he’ll be back next season. This was my boldest prediction. Prior to the season, ARam announced his intention to retire. I suppose there’s still a remote chance he’ll have a change of heart. Or not.

1-for-6

7. Yasmany Tomas spends half of 2015 in the minors or hurt

I simply packaged this one wrong. I was way down on Tomas, but his 40/9/48/5/.273 fantasy slash in 426 plate appearances wasn’t terrible. His -1.3 WAR was decidedly heinous. He did stay healthy and only spent 23 plate appearances at Triple-A. But I correctly predicted that he’d be godawful. Like with Carrasco, I was right in principle but wrong in how it’d happen.

1-for-7 (4 almosts)

8. Odubel Herrera will reach 400 plate appearances and steal at least 20 bases

Grumble. I packaged this pick incorrectly too. I’m proud of this one too even though it was technically wrong. I made this projection during a dynasty draft way back in January. I talked Chad Young into taking him somewhere around the 800th pick.

I’m not sure how he kept up a .387 BABIP over 537 plate appearances. He was a high BABIP guy throughout his entire minor league career, but that usually goes away in the majors. Herrera led the Phillies with 3.9 WAR. He also fell four stolen bases short of my projection.

1-f0r-8 (5 almosts)

9. Brad Boxberger will save at least 35 games

Well there’s no uncertainty here. Boxberger was actually something of a disappointment after a breakout 2014 campaign. He regressed to 10.57 K/9, 4.57 BB/9, a 3.71 ERA, and a 4.26 FIP. He had home run problems for a third straight season. He wilted down the stretch. Last and most importantly, he saved 41 games.

2-for-9

10. Clayton Kershaw has his worst season since his 2008 debut

Through May 21 (nine starts), Kershaw had a 4.32 ERA and a 2-3 record. I thought for sure that basic math would guarantee my pick. Even though he had a 2.89 FIP through this point in the season, regression would have still left him with his worst ERA since 2008.

From that point on, Kershaw posted a 1.39 ERA over 24 starts. So much for my bold bet on injury. It’ll happen someday.

2-for-10

Final Tally

Correct: 2
So Close: 5
Dead Wrong: 3

Bonus. Jose Ramirez will remain a starter for the entire season

Woof. I saved my worst for last. Remind me not to offer a bonus prediction next season.