Reviewing 2015 Pod’s Picks: Second Base, Shortstop & Third Base

Every year after the RotoGraphs consensus positional rankings are published, I compare my column of ranks to a recalculated consensus after excluding mine. It’s a fun little activity and it allows me to figure out why I might be more bullish or bearish on a particular player than the rest of the crew. I published all infielders in one post in the preseason, but have already recapped the catchers and first basemen. So today I’ll finish up with the infield, reviewing the second basemen, shortstops and third basemen.

Second Base

Bullish

Chase Utley

Consensus Rank: 13 | My Rank: 10 | Actual Rank: 36

I wasn’t exactly thrilled about having to defense my bullishness here, but figured he would rebound at least marginally from his 2014 performance. That didn’t happen, as his offense completely collapsed, fueled by a career low BABIP, which ultimately pushed him into a reserve role after departing the Phillies. His days as a full-timer are likely over after an excellent career.

Verdict: Consensus

Bearish

Arismendy Alcantara

Consensus Rank: 19 | My Rank: 28 | Actual Rank: 75

I was more concerned about Alcantara’s playing time than his performance in the at-bats he did manage to receive. My concerns were warranted, as he came to the plate just 32 times all season. Since he posted just a .302 wOBA at Triple-A, the poor performance at the level means that the Cubs will look harder to find a new center fielder that isn’t Arismendy.

Verdict: Pod

Jedd Gyorko

Consensus Rank: 15 | My Rank: 22 | Actual Rank: 28

The problem here was that there just wasn’t a whole lot of upside from a fantasy standpoint. Even if you expected a power rebound, perhaps even a doubling of his 2014 home run total, it was still going to come with a poor batting average, few steals, and unimpressive runs scored and batted in totals due to an expected spot in the bottom half of the batting order.

Verdict: Pod

Shortstop

Bullish

Chris Owings

Consensus Rank: 19 | My Rank: 11 | Actual Rank: 25 (among 2B)

Funny, I opened my blurb with:

Obviously, the fear here is that Owings loses his starting job to Nick Ahmed.

This did indeed happen, but then my next sentence suggesting that Owings slide over to second base proved true as well. So the concern was warranted, but didn’t cost him much playing time. And yet, he still finished just 26th in value. Despite showing some respectable power in the minors, Owings popped just four homers all season, and his ISO finished below .100. The steals were there as expected, but due to the lack of power, plus a sudden inability to make contact, his batting average was a putrid .227. It was a pretty disastrous season offensively, though his batted ball distribution looked good. I’d be willing to buy cheap in an NL-Only league.

Verdict: Consensus

Bearish

Xander Bogaerts

Consensus Rank: 10 | My Rank: 18 | Actual Rank: 1

That Bogaerts finished as the most valuable shortstop this year speaks more to the weak crop this year than his actual performance. His value was almost entirely driven by his BABIP spike from .297 to .372, which had the indirect benefit of pushing him into a better lineup slot, thereby increasing his opportunities to both score and drive in runs. He also suddenly stole 10 bases, which is more than he had done in any previous year. I can’t imagine he finishes first in value next year, or really threatens to, but the shape of his performance could very well change. I don’t think he’s an empty batting average guy for long.

Verdict: Consensus

Jean Segura

Consensus Rank: 7 | My Rank: 12 | Actual Rank: 11

I figured some sort of rebound for Segura after his disappointing 2014 performance, but any optimism had to be dampened by the fact he would open the year toward the bottom of the batting order. Surprisingly, he ended up accumulating 40% of his plate appearances in the leadoff slot, and yet that still wasn’t enough to push his value into the top 10 at a weak position. At this point, he is what he is, and a guy projected to post a sub-.300 OBP has no business at the top of the order.

Verdict: Pod

Alexei Ramirez

Consensus Rank: 5 | My Rank: 10 | Actual Rank: 15

A bit of regression in his counting stats across the board, plus a return to the bottom of the order half of the order, is what did Ramirez’s value in. It just goes to show how important place in the batting order is for a hitter’s fantasy value.

Verdict: Pod

Third Base

Bullish

Ryan Zimmerman

Consensus Rank: 12 | My Rank: 6 | Actual Rank: 27

The good news is that Zimmerman’s power fully rebounded. The bad news is that he battled injuries once again and was hampered by a career worst BABIP mark. After two straight injury marred and disappointing seasons, he might come at the best value he ever has in 2016.

Verdict: Consensus

Josh Harrison

Consensus Rank: 15 | My Rank: 10 | Actual Rank: 27

We all knew there would be regression involved after his surprise 2014 performance. But the only real difference between his 2014 and 2015 season was a sudden disappearance of any semblance of power. His respectable batted ball distance suggests that he should rebound somewhat next year and should make a good target in NL-Only leagues.

Verdict: Consensus

Bearish

Kris Bryant

Consensus Rank: 10 | My Rank: 17 | Actual Rank: 4

Oyyyy, couldn’t I just delete this entry and pretend I never made this call? The most obvious reason I was off here (and everyone else for that matter) is because I projected just 500 plate appearances. He finished with 650. Still though, even extrapolating my projection to that plate appearance total, I undershot his stolen bases, runs scored and batted in, and was well off his ultimate BABIP, and resulting batting average. Basically, rookies are hard to project. Especially those of whom you’re not positive exactly when they’ll be called up.

Verdict: Consensus

Matt Carpenter

Consensus Rank: 11 | My Rank: 16 | Actual Rank: 5

I managed to be bearish on all the surprises, huh? Carpenter transformed into an alternate universe version of himself who suddenly has big power and strikes out at a worse than league average clip. Which version shows up in 2016? Beats me!

Verdict: Consensus

Kyle Seager

Consensus Rank: 3 | My Rank: 8 | Actual Rank: 8

I admitted confusion that Seager was so optimistically ranked, as he was just the fifth best third baseman in 2014. Surely we didn’t expect him to improve again, right? Actually, Seager has essentially been the same player for three years running now, but a decline in BABIP makes a nice improvement in strikeout rate (oddly, despite an increase in SwStk%). Seems safe to say we should expect more of the same in 2016!

Verdict: Pod