Reviewing 2015 Pod’s Picks: Outfield

It’s outfield week here at RotoGraphs, so I’ll begin the festivities by reviewing my preseason Pod’s Picks at the position. Every year after the RotoGraphs consensus positional rankings are published, I compare my column of ranks to a recalculated consensus after excluding mine. It’s a fun little activity and it allows me to figure out why I might be more bullish or bearish on a particular player than the rest of the crew.

Bullish

Avisail Garcia

Consensus Rank: 58 | My Rank: 39 | Actual Rank: 54

Coming off an injury marred 2014 season, I figured Garcia would provide a tidy little profit with a respectable power/speed combination. Instead, he was a poor man’s version of himself, contributing less power and speed than I figured. I think he’ll be a bit better next year, but he needs to hit more fly balls to become any kind of asset in the home run category.

Verdict: Consensus

Ben Revere

Consensus Rank: 39 | My Rank: 22 | Actual Rank: 22

Hey hey hey, would you look at that?! Hit the rank right on the head. Amazingly, Revere ranked 22nd among outfielders while stealing just 31 bases. That was 18 fewer than he swiped in 2014 and likely far less than any forecast, including mine. Since he hit for an identical average, the difference was a bunch more runs scored and batted in. Plus, I believe the powerless speedsters are always undervalued as a group. If he remains in the leadoff slot in Toronto all season, there’s a good chance of him matching the career high runs scored and batted in marks he set this year.

Verdict: Pod

Carl Crawford

Consensus Rank: 62 | My Rank: 47 | Actual Rank: 123

There always has to be an injured guy in the mix, huh? Crawford missed nearly three months with a strained oblique, but didn’t hit much when he did make it into the batter’s box. He posted the third lowest full season wOBA mark of his career and easily set a new career high in strikeout rate. The good news is that he still has some power and continues to steal bases. Unfortunately, he might officially be out of a starting job.

Verdict: Consensus

Michael Cuddyer

Consensus Rank: 61 | My Rank: 48 | Actual Rank: 88

This was a strange one as the moment he signed with the Mets, I became quite bearish on his production, or at least I thought so. Apparently, I wasn’t nearly as bearish as everyone else! Like Crawford above, injury issues affected his ranking, as his injury report includes an astounding seven separate maladies that resulted in a day-to-day status, in addition to a DL stint for a bruised knee. Of course, the injuries that limited his playing time weren’t the only explanation for his poor ranking. He also posted the lowest wOBA of his entire career and lowest full season ISO and strikeout rates. As he heads into his age 37 season, he’s no rebound candidate.

Verdict: Consensus

Corey Dickerson

Consensus Rank: 20 | My Rank: 8 | Actual Rank: 95

Darn these injuries!! Dickerson dealt with plantar fasciitis in his left foot most, if not all, of the season, which led to two separate DL visits, and then missed another month and change with a fractured rib. In all, he managed to come to the plate just 234 times, which was just about half of his plate appearances in 2014. Unlike the others hampered by injury above that hit poorly, Dickerson continued to hit well when he was on the field, displaying excellent power and showing his masterful ability to post an inflated BABIP, thanks to a line drive fueled batted ball distribution. He could be a nice source of profit next year.

Verdict: Consensus

Bearish

Rusney Castillo

Consensus Rank: 53 | My Rank: 86 | Actual Rank: 106

I was a big fan of Castillo’s broad base of skills and would have loved him if he entered the 2015 season with a starting job. But that wasn’t to be. So I had to scratch my head when the bidding was underway in my two auction based leagues, as it was as if no one received the memo that Castillo would either open the year in the minors or serve in a reserve role. Sure enough, he ended up receiving just 289 plate appearances, and he didn’t do a whole lot with them. However, he should open next season with a starting job and I still like his potential to contribute in all categories. He may again appear as a Pod’s Pick, but this time on the Bullish side.

Verdict:

Brett Gardner

Consensus Rank: 34 | My Rank: 50 | Actual Rank: 23

I thought Gardner’s 2014 power outburst was a complete fluke, but he then goes out and posts an identical HR/FB rate this season. Pshhhh, shows how much I know! Though his speed appears stable, note that his triples total fell from eight in 2014 to just three, which is easily the lowest full season mark he has recorded. His Spd score also dropped to a career low. I’m still leery of his power and now we’re going to have to worry about his speed declining. He’s unlikely to come at a discount, so I’d rather just stay away next year.

Verdict: Consensus

Christian Yelich

Consensus Rank: 17 | My Rank: 32 | Actual Rank: 39

I was intriguing by some apparent hidden power in Yelich’s bat, but it doesn’t matter how powerful his stroke is if he continues to hit fewer than 20% of his balls in play in the air. For the third season, Yelich has posted a ground ball rate above 60% and a mid-teens fly ball rate. It severely caps his upside and he doesn’t have the speed to burst out for 30 steals. The closer fences this year at Marlins Park should help a bit, but it really comes down to his fly ball rate.

Verdict: Pod

Curtis Granderson

Consensus Rank: 50 | My Rank: 64 | Actual Rank: 20

At age 34, Granderson reversed his declining performance and posted his highest BABIP since 2008. It’s not supposed to work that way, but there are always exceptions. Though I would expect a bit of regression, there was nothing outwardly fluky about his performance, so he should follow up decently.

Verdict: Consensus

Jason Heyward

Consensus Rank: 25 | My Rank: 37 | Actual Rank: 21

Welp, I was totally wrong about Heyward. I figured a more significant rebound in power, which didn’t happen, paired with a major regression in his stolen base output, which also failed to occur. In fact, he sent a new career high in steals and was successful on 88% of his attempts! His HR/FB rate actually did rebound, but you wouldn’t have realized it just by looking at his home run total. The problem is that his fly ball rate tumbled to just 23.5%, which easily marked a career low and the first time it slipped below 30% since his 2010 rookie campaign. I would be very, very surprised if he fails to clear 20 homers in a season again over the next couple of years.

Verdict: Consensus

Jay Bruce

Consensus Rank: 16 | My Rank: 28 | Actual Rank: 34

Bruce’s HR/FB rate dropped a third straight year, but because his fly ball rate jumped back above 40%, his home run total still partially rebounded. Unfortunately, even if the power is back to normal, his batting average is going to be a killer. He probably didn’t deserve a .251 BABIP, but all those fly balls are bad and he doesn’t supplement them with a high rate of line drives.

Verdict: Pod