Reviewing 2015 Pod’s Picks: Catcher & First Base

Every year after the RotoGraphs consensus positional rankings are published, I compare my column of ranks to a recalculated consensus after excluding mine. It’s a fun little activity and it allows me to figure out why I might be more bullish or bearish on a particular player than the rest of the crew. Although I published all infielders in one post in the preseason, I’ll only look at a couple of positions at a time for the recaps. We’ll start with the catchers and first basemen.

Catcher

Bullish

Matt Wieters

Consensus Rank: 15 | My Rank: 6 | Actual Rank: 26

Obviously, the biggest question mark here was how many at-bats would he receive and how would be perform in his return from Tommy John surgery. The rest of the rankers were clearly more cautious than I was, but ultimately not cautious enough! I ended up being stupidly optimistic and any chances I had of being anywhere close were ruined by the multiple setbacks that delayed Wieters’ 2015 debut to early June.

By the time Wieters finally appeared in his first game, we found out that he wouldn’t catch on back-to-back days for a while, which further reduced his playing time. Aside from the missed time, his skills declined, as his strikeout rate shot up thanks to a surge in SwStk% to a career high, while his power faded due to a sharp drop in fly ball rate. Depending on where he lands this winter, he might be a nice bounce back candidate with strong profit potential at drafts.

Verdict: Consensus

Chris Iannetta

Consensus Rank: 28 | My Rank: 21 | Actual Rank: 34

In my original writeup, I shared my surprise about Iannetta’s appearance on the bullish side, as I didn’t feel like there was any reason I would have liked him any more than anyone else. I had imagined it was due to an expected bump in playing time due to the departure of Hank Conger, but instead, he didn’t hit and lost playing time to Carlos Perez. As a result, he actually saw his plate appearance total dip.

It’s no surprise then to see that he finished as just the 34th most valuable catcher. It was primarily just a BABIP thing, as his balls in play fell for hits at the second lowest rate of his career. Though perhaps he should be the one to shoulder most of the blame, rather than faulting lady luck. His line drive rate plummeted to a career low, while his fly ball rate jumped to its second highest mark. That’s not a recipe for a strong BABIP. In fact, his batted ball profile looked awfully similar to his 2010 line, when he posted his worst career BABIP mark of .212. I’d figure some sort of rebound, but I would be surprised if he heads into the season with a starting job.

Verdict: Consensus

Bearish

Wilin Rosario

Consensus Rank: 13 | My Rank: 24 | Actual Rank: 45 (among 1st Base)

Rosario’s rank of 45 was among first basemen, as Zach did not include him in the catcher rankings. Either way, he was obviously a huge bust. Or perhaps not. Everyone should have seen this coming. We were told that Rosario was no longer the starting catcher, would rarely actually play the position, and would get most of his at-bats rotating at first base and in the outfield as a bench bat. Sure enough, that’s exactly what happened, except for the outfield part, as he failed to get in a single inning there.

When Rosario did come to the plate, his skills continued their rapid decline. His strikeout rate jumped back to his pre-2014 levels, his ISO slid for a third straight season, and his fly ball rate tumbled a third year in a row. His days of being fantasy relevant may be over.

Verdict: Pod

Tyler Flowers

Consensus Rank: 22 | My Rank: 30 | Actual Rank: 29

Almost nailed the ranking exactly. I pondered whether the ranking disagreement was a playing time issue, as the pre-season Steamer projections forecasted 100 fewer plate appearances than the Fans, and it’s possible the other rankings were closer to the Fans. My plate appearance projection turned out to be slightly too optimistic, while he was a bit of a disappointment from a power perspective. Despite a rebound in fly ball rate from a 2014 low, he hit one less homer in 75 more at bats compared to 2013.

Verdict: Pod

First Base

Bullish

Amazingly, there was no one that fit into this category!

Bearish

Justin Smoak

Consensus Rank: 24 | My Rank: 42 | Actual Rank: 32

So this was odd. You might remember how bullish I was on Smoak in the preseason, including him in my Bold Predictions and gushing about his surging batted ball distance. And yet, he appeared here as somewhat I was seemingly significantly bearish on. Looking at my projection, I was off on the plate appearances, just as everyone was, but my counting stat forecasts were nearly right on the money, and the batting average was close. So it’s surprising to be off by 10 ranks. Perhaps it’s because the killer batting average was slightly less killer in 296 at-bats, rather than the 403 I projected.

Verdict: Consensus

Chris Carter

Consensus Rank: 11 | My Rank: 24 | Actual Rank: 29

Carter was the rare Pod’s Pick that I fully expected to specifically see in one of the categories. I was worried about his HR/FB rate given his batted ball distance and concerned about the number of first base and DH candidates the Astros had that could threaten Carter’s playing time once the extended slump inevitably hits. Sure enough, that slump began as soon as the season started and although his power returned in May and June, he had become a part-time player over the second half of the season. As a result, he came to the plate more than 100 times fewer than in 2014 and his batted average ultimately fell just below the Mendoza line.

Verdict: Pod