Rest of Season Top 100 SPs
by Paul Sporer
August 31, 2016
Can you believe we’re entering the final full month of the regular season? That’s so sad. However, the stretch run is also one of the best times of the year, especially if your fantasy team is a contender. I’ve compiled my Top 100 for the rest of the season with a quick thought or two on each. Let me know what you think. Who is your big gamble arm for September? Anyone you think will be vastly better than his current numbers? Also, let me know if there are any glaring omissions.
Chris Tillman is unlikely to reach the September 10th return they originally set which puts him in limbo. If he can return by September 15th, that should be four starts, but I left him off due to the injury uncertainty. If you have him on your DL, obviously hang on, but I’m not necessarily targeting him on the wire.
Rest of Season Top 100
| Pitcher Comment | |
| 1 | Max Scherzer — 5 HR in his L11 (2.05 ERA); 20 HR through 16 starts (3.52) |
| 2 | Madison Bumgarner — Leads MLB in IP (187.7), has career-high K% (27%) |
| 3 | Jose Fernandez — 1.91/4.02 home/road ERA split, but 5.1/4.0 K:BB splits say don’t worry |
| 4 | Corey Kluber — Finished May at 4.15 ERA, since: 2.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 105 Ks in 102 IP |
| 5 | Yu Darvish — 71 Ks in 56 IP (31% K%) since DL return; 3.05 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in same span |
| 6 | Chris Sale — Ditched low-K approach in early-June: 101 in 92.7 IP since 6/10 |
| 7 | Johnny Cueto — Quietly humming along as a stud… again! (2.86 ERA/1.08 WHIP) |
| 8 | Carlos Carrasco — 12 R in L3, but only 7 ER and 28:1 K:BB in the 18.7 IP; not worried |
| 9 | Justin Verlander — Last calendar year: 19% K-BB% – same as Lester, 0.5% below Kluber |
| 10 | Noah Syndergaard — Bone spurs stop Thor? Hardly : 2.66 ERA, 69 Ks in 61 IP since that news |
| 11 | Danny Duffy — Won’t ride “last calendar” thing too hard, but he’s 6th in K-BB% (21%) |
| 12 | Chris Archer — Leads AL in Ks (202) and has 3.05 ERA & 0.95 WHIP since ASB |
| 13 | Jon Lester — One of 7 qualified SPs w/a sub-3.00 FIP since ASB (2.86) |
| 14 | Jake Arrieta — BB% in 3-ball counts: 50%, 28% in ’15; not wiggling out of trouble as well |
| 15 | Kyle Hendricks — Don’t sleep on solid 8.0 K9 backed by 10% SwStr rate |
| 16 | Jacob deGrom — Was last standing NYM ace, but then 25 H in last 9.7 IP yielded 13 ER |
| 17 | Cole Hamels — Aided by 84% LOB, but has 5 other seas at 78% or better |
| 18 | Danny Salazar — Not completely out of the woods w/gem at TEX, but upside so rich |
| 19 | Masahiro Tanaka — Traded Ks for fewer HRs? Career-low 7.6 K9, career-best 0.9 HR9 |
| 20 | Rick Porcello — Ws driving value, but he’s part of that w/7 IP per start during 11-1 run |
| 21 | Jose Quintana — Speaking of Ws, he finally eclipsed 9 after 3 straight seasons there |
| 22 | David Price — Jekyll & Hyde yr can still end strong, in fact: 2.87 ERA in L11 |
| 23 | Stephen Strasburg — Slated to return next wk; 0.83 ERA in F3 starts off DL in July |
| 24 | Carlos Martinez — Returned BB for K? F15: 6.9 K, 2.9 BB; L10: 9.1, 3.6; ERA 0.6 higher in L10 |
| 25 | J.A. Happ — Downright Pittsburghian of late: 11.3 K9, 5.0 K:BB in L9; 9.3, 5.3 w/PIT |
| 26 | Jake Odorizzi — Stumbled into ASB (6.75 ERA in 6 starts), but great since w/1.59 in 8 |
| 27 | Kenta Maeda — His 11.7% SwStr rate is 12th-best in MLB |
| 28 | Zack Greinke — Ugly 7.84 Aug ERA, but 24% K & 7% BB close to 23%/5% he had w/LAD |
| 29 | Matt Shoemaker — Maybe better H2H play: 3.66 ERA in L11, but 52% of ER are from 3 starts |
| 30 | Tanner Roark — Essentially traded a BB for a K in per 9s to replicate the ’14 breakout |
| 31 | Drew Pomeranz — 5 ER in 2 of 3 to start, but 2.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, & 31 Ks in 30 IP since |
| 32 | Felix Hernandez — 2.57 ERA in L6 aided by 13% SwStr while maintaining 53% GB |
| 33 | Marcus Stroman — Skills transformation over his L10: 69 Ks, 7.7 K:BB in 65.7 IP |
| 34 | Ivan Nova — Virtually non-existent BB rate w/PIT has yielded nice results |
| 35 | Aaron Sanchez — 6-man rotation costs him one start rest of way and about 10 ranks |
| 36 | Kevin Gausman — Has mid-3.00s ERA ceiling until he can curb HRs (1.5 this yr) |
| 37 | Rich Hill — …in a utopia where his blister doesn’t keep splitting; tough rank for me |
| 38 | Dallas Keuchel — Left for dead, but a useful 3.83 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 86 Ks in L15 (98.7 IP) |
| 39 | Marco Estrada — He contributes to the BABIP; AL H9 leader for 2nd straight season |
| 40 | Ian Kennedy — KC fitting perfectly; still too many HR, but low WHIP mitgates impact |
| 41 | Julio Teheran — Great talent, but Ws non-existent & ERA/WHIP very volatile in ~6 GS |
| 42 | James Paxton — Improved velo & mechanics has yielded K & BB gains (8.0 K:BB in L5) |
| 43 | Carlos Rodon — Trimming BB has led to more H & HR, but 2.43 ERA in 6 since DL return |
| 44 | Jeff Samardzija — Streaking of late, but seems to interrupt any streak w/a 5+ ER outing |
| 45 | Michael Fulmer — A little gassed after SHO at TEX? 5 K, 15 H in L2; will be shuffled for rest |
| 46 | Anthony DeSclafani — ’15 IP likely were enough, but 2 mo. DL stay ensures no IP limit in Sept. |
| 47 | Jason Hammel — Tough read: 10 ER, 1.26 ERA in 43 IP, 10 R (6 ER), 3 ER out after 2.3 IP |
| 48 | John Lackey — Slated for Sun. return; he’s been great this yr |
| 49 | Matt Moore — 1st-pitch strike rate same as TB; trading BB for H/HR – a positive so far |
| 50 | Drew Smyly — 2.82 ERA in L7, but 1.2 HR9 says BABIP will drive results (.207 in the 7) |
| 51 | Gerrit Cole — I went very cautious w/guys on DL for at least another 7-10 days |
| 52 | Adam Wainwright — Career-low 67% LOB; .880 OPS in even counts way worse than .707 lg avg |
| 53 | Brandon Finnegan — Volatility shown by Game Scores: 49, 30, 66, 72, 47, 38, 81, & 68 |
| 54 | Gio Gonzalez — 3.73 FIP thru June said stay onboard: 3.34 ERA since July 1st |
| 55 | Robbie Ray — 52% GB rate in his L8 mitigates huge Hard% (41% in L8, 37% season) |
| 56 | Junior Guerra — Being activated Friday for start v. PIT; plan for mid-3.00s |
| 57 | Trevor Bauer — BB still fuel his meltdowns, but they’ve been more rare |
| 58 | Taijuan Walker — Might find more success trading some BB for fewer HRs like others have |
| 59 | Ervin Santana — Hit last time out, but 2.30 ERA, 3.6 K:BB in L12; mid-3.00s rest of way |
| 60 | Steven Matz — They should probably just shut him down at this point |
| 61 | Sean Manaea — Left Mon. start early w/”right rhomboid strain”; day-to-day |
| 62 | Yordano Ventura — 11% SwStr since ASB w/56% GB offers hope, but 1.3 HR9 tempers hype |
| 63 | Jerad Eickhoff — 183 IP last yr should prevent any IP limit for the 25-year old |
| 64 | Tyler Anderson — Skills support 3.45 home ERA even w/.329 BABIP (3.41 FIP) |
| 65 | Jordan Zimmermann — Rehab slated to start this Friday |
| 66 | Dylan Bundy — Wearing down some? 15.7 P/IP in F5 starts; 18.3 in L4 (5.85 ERA) |
| 67 | Zach Davies — 2 ugly starts in mid-Aug, but he rebounded: 17 Ks, 5.7 K:BB in L2 |
| 68 | Steven Wright — Rough 1st inn. back from DL, but 3 H in 5 IP rest of way |
| 69 | Jon Gray — 4.22 ERA in L6 home starts, but 8 of 15 ER came in 1 start (2.23 in other 5) |
| 70 | Jaime Garcia — Victim of HR surge w/1.2 being full season career-worst (0.7 career) |
| 71 | Hisashi Iwakuma — Has eclipsed 3 Ks in just 2 of his last 8 |
| 72 | Dan Straily — 2.43 ERA in 63 IP from 7/2-8/23, but bookended by 7 ER nightmares |
| 73 | David Phelps — 2.22 ERA, 32 Ks, .184 AVG in 24.3 IP as SP |
| 74 | Vince Velasquez — Had 3-4 starts left on Aug 17th and has made 2 since |
| 75 | Michael Pineda — The 5 ER hot potato: 10 starts of 5+ ER are tied for 1st in MLB |
| 76 | Anibal Sanchez — 4.8 K:BB ratio in L8 w/4.53 ERA, though 8 ER in flameout (3.35 in other 7) |
| 77 | Jameson Taillon — Bad 1st inn. at MIL (3 IP/5 ER) snapped streak of 6+ IP starts at 8 |
| 78 | Matt Boyd — Hasn’t allowed >3 ER in 9 starts since recall; 1.5 HR9 says beware |
| 79 | Jeremy Hellickson — Stats don’t show his quality; see it more watching his starts, tbh |
| 80 | Bartolo Colon — Better large sample arm as duds are really bad (4 starts of 5+ ER) |
| 81 | Eduardo Rodriguez — Was showing flashes, but then a hammy came up; tough to trust |
| 82 | Mike Foltynewicz — Sliced 1/2 a BB & has best H9 ever, next up: HRs (1.4 season; 1.6 career) |
| 83 | Andrew Triggs — 27 y/o soft-tosser, but 8.9 K9 & 4.4 K:BB match MiLB totals of 9.0, 4.5 |
| 84 | Daniel Norris — Solid 3.37 ERA since recall, but 6+ IP just once in in 5 starts |
| 85 | Joe Musgrove — Perhaps leaving the zone is the key |
| 86 | Francisco Liriano — BB & HR regression has helped, but his WHIP can still devastate |
| 87 | Collin McHugh — Has 4.79 ERA in L14, but it’s 3.57 outside the 1.7 IP/8 ER bomb at DET |
| 88 | Doug Fister — Gotta get your Ks elsewhere, but 3.27 ERA over L22 starts |
| 89 | Kendall Graveman — BABIP-dependent bc of K%: .328 in F15 (4.84 ERA); .237 in L10 (2.97) |
| 90 | Blake Snell — Wildly inconsistent of late; hasn’t finished 6 IP in any of L6 |
| 91 | Derek Holland — Identical 6 IP/4 H/1 ER/5 K outings off the DL; 11% SwStr since 6/5 |
| 92 | R.A. Dickey — Feeling lucky? ERA by month: 6.75, 3.20, 3.44, 6.28, and 3.41 |
| 93 | Chad Green — He’s allowed 11 HR, 7 coming in two starts; strong K & BB skills |
| 94 | Seth Lugo — Not a 2.60 ERA guy, but capable of mid-3.00s w/7-8 Ks per nine |
| 95 | Mike Fiers — Usually at the mercy of HRs, but 39 Ks & 4.9 K:BB in last 42.3 IP |
| 96 | Andrew Cashner — Fewer HR w/MIA, but also fewer K, more BB, and more H — blah |
| 97 | Joe Ross — Slated for rehab on Wed.; total gamble, but big upside |
| 98 | Luke Weaver — 98 total IP so far after 125 last yr so limits shouldn’t be an issue |
| 99 | CC Sabathia — Ball is leaving the yard again: 3 thru 11 starts (2.20 ERA); 14 in L13 (6.06) |
| 100 | Tyler Skaggs — TJ returner has Game Scores of either 66+ (3x) or <=35 (4x) |
Clayton Kershaw seems like a glaring one. Even if we say there’s a 50% chance something goes wrong between now and his scheduled return next week, that still has to put him somewhere around Trevor Bauer…
Personally, I’d toss him right next to Strasburg.
Agreed. Reports are that Kershaw felt good after throwing two simulated innings yesterday (Tuesday) and that he will need one rehab start. Thus, Kershaw could be back at roughly the same time as Strasburg.