Recent Waiver Wire Additions

I examined why the following players were added in 30 or more NFBC Online Championships. I picked this format because some leagues were drafted in January. Most of the players are in order of most leagues added, except when I grouped some guys. The entire list is at the article’s end.

Landon Knack, Jon Berti, Alex Vesia, and Enrique Hernández

These four were added because their stats from the two games in Japan will count for the first week.

AJ Smith-Shawver

The 22-righty wasn’t on my radar because he allows too many walks (near 4.0 BB/9 in the minors and majors) for the number of strikeouts he generates. Additionally, he’s flyball prone (35% GB% in the majors, 30% in the minors in 2024, 26% in Spring Training). Too many walks and home runs lead to poor results.

I looked for any pitch mix changes, but he didn’t throw in any stadiums that collects StatCast information. I did find that he might be throwing 2 mph harder (96.2 mph in 2024).

AJ Smith-Shawver sitting 98-100 with his fastball, 88-91 with his cutter. This is some gorgeous stuff from the talented pitcher.

— Gaurav (@gvedak) March 15, 2025

Additionally, he found more of the plate in Spring Training with a 30% Ball% (1.5 BB/9 equiv) after posting a 41% Ball% (5.1 BB/9 equiv) in the majors so far.

The added velo and ability to find the strikezone make him worth targeting.

Cam Smith

Smith was the major return when the Astros traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Early in the draft season, he wasn’t on any radars, but the momentum built around him as the chances of him making the Astros roster increased. In 21 NFBC Main Event drafts this past weekend, he had a 275 ADP (18th round in the 15-teamers). He has now officially made the roster.

Once he started to gain steam, I ran a couple of queries on similar players. The first query is for hitters ranked from 50 to 100 in Baseball America’s overall rankings since 2005, had fewer than 50 PA in AA, and were 20 to 22 years old. Here is how they performed in the majors the next season (null means they didn’t make it):

Not great with just two playing at all.

Another query looked at guys who made it to AA in the same year that the player was drafted and ranked in Baseball America’s Top-100. Here is how they performed in the majors the next season.

A couple of decent names but more zeros (3) than hits (2?).

Monitor his strikeouts going forward since he posted a 15% SwStr% and 26% K% in Spring Training. Also, he has a 48% GB%, which is close to the 50% GB% he posted in 57 PA in High-A.

Smith is worth a dart but remember, it’s just a dart, and be ready to move on if he proves he can’t handle MLB pitching.

Hayden Birdsong

It was a crazy 24 hours for Birdsong, going from being tagged as a starter to the bullpen. It all started with this tweet from Jon Heyman.

Hayden Birdsong, young righthander, makes Giants team

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 23, 2025

Many people assumed that Birdsong made the rotation. Not so fast.

Landen Roupp Wins Final Spot In Giants' Rotation https://t.co/AV4sD2qdOR pic.twitter.com/NYgJN3lMBF

— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) March 25, 2025

I wasn’t targeting Birdsong again because of his walk rate, which was 4.1 BB/9 in the minors and 5.4 BB/9 in the majors. In 12 IP this spring, he has yet to walk a batter with his Ball% dropping from 41% to 16%.

As for his arsenal, there aren’t any changes with a similar pitch mix and velocities. He doesn’t need to change since he’s always posted a strikeout rate over 10 K/9, so the swings and misses will come. He might miss a few more bats if he threw his slider (22% SwStr%) more than 18% of the time.

Ben Rice

With Giancarlo Stanton out with several injuries, the DH spot opened up, and Rice will fill in. One issue is that other hitters will use the DH spot to rest (e.g. Judge), so Rice will likely not get full-time at-bats. With J.C. Escarra on the team, it might take a few months for Rice to get catcher eligibility: hard pass for me.

Mike Clevinger

Some rumors floating around about Clevinger closing for the White Sox. Two reasons I won’t buy in. First is just the White Sox. The other is that it’s Clevinger. It’s been years since both were relevant.

Casey Mize

Made the Tigers rotation and plans to bring back his splitter.

Jack Leiter

Made the Rangers rotation.

Will Warren

Made the Yankees rotation.

Austin Hays

Could be the Reds cleanup hitter.

Victor Scott II

Made the Cardinals opening day roster and will likely start in center field.

Drake Baldwin

Braves starting catcher with Sean Murphy on the IL

Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning

Both made the Mets rotation.

Graham Ashcraft, Taylor Rogers, and Scott Barlow

Closer options for the Reds

Cade Povich

Made the Orioles rotation.

Hunter Goodman, Miguel Amaya, and Patrick Bailey

Likely added because of other catchers getting injured.

Jacob Wilson윌슨, Max Kepler, and Otto Lopez

Each was ignored early on in draft season and now are viable options.

Max Meyer and Eduardo Rodriguez

With several pitcher injuries, these pitchers are just the next in line.

Spencer Torkelson

A successful Spring Training (.340/.389/.680) while playing games in the outfield.

Gavin Lux

He was a part-time player with the Dodgers and now might be the Reds starting third baseman.

Richard Fitts

Made the Red Sox rotation.

Dustin May

Made the Dodgers rotation.

Brett Baty

Supposed to be on the Opening Day roster after a hot spring (.353/.441/.745) and an injury to Jeff McNeil.