Rankings Update: Outfielders (OF1)

It’s been a little while since we did the first outfielders, and some things have changed. Let’s update these with to-date wOBAs and ZiPs RoS wOBAs and injury information and all that jazz, shan’t we?

The Top Three:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.442 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.355 wOBA, .373 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.350 wOBA, .380 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Justin Upton is on comeback trail. He’s having a .310/.347/.577 kind of a May which pulls him back into this top-three territory. For those that would like to penalize him for his batting average / strikeout issues, it looks like he either has contact skills that can prop up a decent average or he’s streaky enough to make the final tally look fine. And the counting stats are looking fine – his ZiPs Update has him at 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases. That’s not bad. In fact, it’s good.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.445 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.384 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.368 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.354 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.372 wOBA, .377 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

While Justin Upton doesn’t have the lengthy history to ‘prove’ his batting average risk, Nelson Cruz does. He’s come a long way to even get to this point, really. But we know the strikeouts will bring that average down, so don’t go counting on a .301 batting average to last. The rest of the guys on this list are providing stats in multiple categories despite a tiny bit of disappointment in most cases. A stolen base tear or a little power burst, and they’ll turn in seasons like any other on their resumes.

Hurt But Still Good?
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.507 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.366 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.315 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.256 wOBA, .359 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

New tier for these guys, who are testing patience across the country. Granderson is close to coming back, as he was shagging fly balls recently. Ellsbury played a rehab game, too. Those two represent decent buy-low candidates. You might want to wait for news on Sizemore’s knee – surgery was rumored – before you go poking around on his availability.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.373 wOBA, .368 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.441 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Josh Hamilton and Jayson Werth both look like they are a healthy month away from jumping tiers. Werth is playing a little above his head, but all that contract talk is probably making him salivate. Andre Ethier was leading the triple-crown categories, but maybe he should be in the hurt category. People should be pardoned for being a little skeptical about his huge ISO, given his history. His BABIP should fall, too. There could be some flip-flopping between this tier and the second one with some sustained play.

Missing Something?
Jason Bay, New York NL (.346 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.306 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.365 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.394 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA))

McCutchen is moving his way up, but ISO stabilizes latest so we have to be careful about how much we move him up. It’s still possible he belongs with speedsters Michael Bourn and Brett Gardner below. Adam Lind and Nick Markakis in the meantime are moving their way down until they can prove they have some one fantasy tool that we can latch on to. They still have some history to call back on, or else they’d have dropped further.

Upside to Join the Top
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.316 wOBA, .337 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin (.304 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Michael Bourn (.340 wOBA, .322 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner (.391 wOBA, .332 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

The elder Upton’s strikeout rate seems to be the harbinger of a poor batting average, as does Quentin’s poor line drive rate. Michael Bourn just doesn’t have any power, or he’d move up the list himself. Stolen bases are rare enough that some speed-only guys can make their way into the elite, but we do expect some power before they can join the elite of the elite. Brett Gardner is a borderline guy himself until someone drops out, for example. There maybe some movement here in this tier between OF1 and OF2.