Ranking MLB Systems with Top Pitching Depth
Today at the Prospect Stock Watch, we’re going to look at pitching because… well, who isn’t looking for quality pitching? The ability to identify good pitching has become even more important around Major League Baseball these days where the balls have more juice than the Kool-Aid Man.
As a fantasy baseball owner, you’re tasked with finding a significant number of arms to help your team navigate through a long season filled with injuries and disappointments. And in this new era of baseball, it can be even more difficult to find a good, reliable starter as many pitchers hit a wall in Triple-A and/or the Majors where the balls are different than the lower minors (Say hello to Justus Sheffield and Deivi Garcia, among others).
Below, we’re going to rank the Top 6 MLB organizations in terms of minor pitching depth and list the best arms within each organization. If we look at the next wave of arms heading towards the MLB, it’s interesting to see these six organizations possess the majority of the top arms in baseball.
The below ranking will help fantasy managers in redraft leagues prepare for 2020, and it will help fantasy managers in dynasty leagues prepare for the multiple seasons ahead. Some of the teams below with the best pitching depth might surprise you. And if the rankings below are any indication, the American League Central could soon become a powerhouse league to rival the AL East.
1. The Detroit Tigers
The Tigers rank first for two reasons. Firstly, they have three pitchers at the top that project to develop into No. 1/2 starters. Secondly, the organization could graduate five strong starting pitchers by the end of the 2020 season. The club also projects to completely makeover the starting rotation by 2021 which could push Spencer Turnbull to the bullpen and allow the Tigers to deal Matthew Boyd for help on the hitting side (Recent draft pick Riley Greene looks special but there’s not much else after that).
Casey Mize, RHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Matt Manning, RHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Tarik Skubal, LHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Joey Wentz, LHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Alex Faedo, RHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Projected 2021 Rotation: Matthew Boyd, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, Spencer Turnbull
2. The Kansas City Royals
I won’t delve too much into this team because I’ve already written about the Royals’ outstanding 2018 draft but the team continues to see unprecedented results from the arms selected just over a year ago. The club could have a starting rotation made up entirely of arms selected in the 2018 draft by the end of 2021 — and some might even have to start out in the bullpen. Like the Tigers, the Royals organization could be very interesting in the next couple of years if it can get some hitting.
Brady Singer, RHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Daniel Lynch, LHP, A+, ETA: 2021
Jackson Kowar, RHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Kris Bubic, LHP, A+, ETA: 2021
Jonathan Bowlan, RHP, A+, ETA: 2021
Austin Cox, LHP, A+, ETA: 2021
Projected 2021 Rotation: Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jonathan Bowlan
3. The Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves organization has the most MLB-ready arms with the likes of Wright, Wilson, and Weigel. And Anderson could end up being the best of the bunch. But don’t sleep on Wright after a rough start to the year. He has a 2.03 ERA over his last eight starts (53.1 innings) in Triple-A. Not all the arms will land in the starting rotation with Max Fried and Mike Soroka already looking like building blocks. Muller and Davidson could end up in the bullpen throwing high-leverage innings.
Kyle Wright, RHP, AAA, ETA: 2019
Ian Anderson, RHP, AAA, ETA: 2020
Kyle Muller, RHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Bryse Wilson, RHP, AAA, ETA: 2019
Patrick Weigel, RHP, AAA, ETA: 2019
Tucker Davidson, LHP, AAA, ETA: 2020
Projected 2021 Rotation: Mike Soroka, Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson, Max Fried, Bryse Wilson
4. The Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto organization is quickly building up an impressive stable of arms and I could have listed another four or five pitchers. The majority of the pitchers with the higher ceilings are in the lower levels of the system while most of the upper-level arms are more No. 4 starter types. As it stands right now, none of the pitchers in the Jays starting rotation look like locks to be there in two or three years. But by the end of 2021, the front of the rotation could include two hurlers already touching 100 miles per hour in Pearson and Manoah.
Nate Pearson, RHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Alek Manoah, RHP, A-, ETA: 2021
Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, A+, ETA: 2021
Eric Pardinho, RHP, A, ETA: 2022
Adam Kloffenstein, RHP, A-, ETA: 2022
Anthony Kay, LHP, AAA, ETA: 2020
Patrick Murphy, RHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Josh Winckowski, RHP. A+, ETA: 2021
Kendall Williams, RHP, R, ETA: 2023
Projected 2021 Rotation: Nate Pearson, Alek Manoah, Patrick Murphy, Simeon Wood Richardson, Anthony Kay
5. The Minnesota Twins
The full impact of the pitching depth in the Twins system will take a few years to be fully felt. Thorpe doesn’t have a huge ceiling but he could settle into the rotation next year and provide a lot of innings. Graterol will be next and has the ceiling of a No. 1 pitcher. Duran has had some issues with Double-A but his ability to miss bats and induce ground balls could help him develop into a top arm. Admittedly, I remain higher on Vallimont than most.
Brusdar Graterol, RHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Jhoan Duran, RHP, AA, ETA: 2021
Jordan Balazovic, RHP, A+, ETA: 2021
Lewis Thorpe, LHP, AAA, ETA: 2019
Chris Vallimont, RHP, A+, ETA: 2021
Projected 2021 Rotation: Jose Berrios, Brusdar Graterol, Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Lewis Thorpe
6. The Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays prospect depth has thinned out a bit recently as the club has enjoyed prospect graduations and also participated in some trades (such as flipping Jesus Sanchez to Miami for pitching depth). But the organization is known for developing pitchers and they still have some impressive arms with high ceilings. Honeywell is a huge wildcard. He was inches away from the Majors after an outstanding year in Triple-A in 2017 but he hasn’t pitched in two years. Will he be the same pitcher when he returns? Will he be able to throw his signature screwball when he returns? McClanahan is the best pitcher around that no one is talking about. Don’t sleep on him; the growth he’s shown with his control and command in 2019 is nothing short of amazing. And the Rays, of course, already have some impressive arms in the Majors (Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Brendan McKay) that likely aren’t going anywhere for the foreseeable future.
Matthew Liberatore, LHP, A, ETA: 2022
Shane McClanahan, LHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Shane Baz, RHP, A, ETA: 2022
Brent Honeywell, RHP, Injured, ETA: 2020
Projected 2021 Rotation: Blake Snell, Brendan McKay, Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Brent Honeywell,
Just missed: San Diego and Miami
A quick observations: This is a very white list. Why are the majority of top starting pitchers coming out of college or high school programs? How can MLB organizations better identify and develop Latin and other foreign-born pitchers into top-shelf starters? Brusdar Graterol, Jhoan Duran and Eric Pardinho… along with the likes of Sixto Sanchez and Luis Patino make up a very small group of top pitching prospects who were born outside of North America.
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Why do we care how white the list is? Good grief.
I mean just from a baseball perspective it would seem to be a market inefficiency if foreign-born players aren’t being developed into pitchers well. There’s a weird association of “white” and “American” in the article though. Baseball doesn’t do a great job enticing young black men to play, but that’s separate from saying that pitchers “come out of college or high school programs,” plus many of the Hispanic players in the MLB are white. It seems well intentioned but it’s really awkwardly phrased.
Is it well intentioned? If you read an NBA article that said, “this list is very black,” followed by questions about what we’re doing to correct the market inefficiency because we’re not reaching out to young white males,” would you say that too is well intentioned? Or are you brainwashed? A simple yes or no will suffice.
It’s almost like some groups are historically marginalized while others are not to the same extent!
Marginalized today? In sports? It’s almost as if you and Marc think certain groups need you to speak on their behalf!
just to be clear, is your position here that there aren’t actually fewer foreign-born pitching prospects than you’d expect, or that there are but there’s no reason for it?
it’s true that the white/american conflation is a bit weird. just from this article, manoah and SWR from the jays are american but not “white”
“plus many of the Hispanic players in the MLB are white. ”
Wut
Why do we care if other people care how white the list is? Good grief.
…This is a very white list…
are you bringing gender politics into the conversation or making a benign observation?
You don’t know what “gender” means, do you?
whoosh
I’d add Edwar Colina to the Twins list. He may end up in the bullpen but he’s been successful as a SP in A+/AA this year.
Why is this in the RotoGraphs blog section of the website? This is just a baseball article, not a fantasy baseball article.
Marc, thanks for letting us know you see and identify people based on the color of their skin. I can’t imagine literally anyone else reading through these names and going right to skin color. Very, very pathetic.
I read it as a simple comment about where a large percentage of pitching talent is coming from these days. But obviously, you were triggered by it. Suggest you go find a safe space.
Imagine him saying about middle infield prospects, “This is a really Hispanic list.”
On the judgement of Latin American pitchers, have they not typically been labelled as “raw” prospects more often than their North American counterparts? Maybe the difference isn’t in talent, but instead, of scout perception.
Or the fact that they’re signed when they’re 16 as opposed to Americans who are anywhere from 17 to 21.
It’s too late to turn back from the comments section becoming overwhelmingly about the very white list comment, so I’d just like to note that I was very surprised by it – but in a good way. Different colors exist, and there’s no reason to pretend that they don’t. This is true in baseball, a sport that’s had, and still has, its own issues with race. There’s no reason to pretend that a large part of the color in baseball is from Latin American and other foreign born players, and that that population of baseball players has been growing. Over the past number of years, teams have shifted a lot of resources to international scouting to be competitive, and there have been changes to the draft rules and to free agency rules to accommodate. So it is surprising when you select a group of players – young, good players – and it’s very white. I’m sure you knew what type of comments you’d get for including that comment, so I give you credit for not shying away from it.
There seems to be a real inefficiency in the way the foreign players are being identified and developed, which is where I was going with this… It would be fascinating to dig into this to determine why that is when teams are spending more money than ever on the international market and players are being developed from the ages of 11-12…
More than half of MLB is foreign-born. Are you suggesting if teams were better at identifying talent, this number would be significantly higher?
RE: “Whiteness”, there are a few areas that I can think of where further research may uncover something:
– Most Latinos are signing with MLB organizations at 16, while Canadians and US Americans are signing with clubs at either ~18-19 or after they’ve had a couple years of college. Each major sub-group (int’l signees, HS draftees, and juco/college draftees) is at an entirely different age, and for the most part, stage of physical development. It wouldn’t surprise me if trying to project and develop 16 YO pitchers yields a much lower return on investment than other sub-groups. Even amongst the group of Latino pitchers cited, you have a bunch of special fringe cases (though you could also argue this is the nature of top pitching prospects). Patino is a converted position player. Sixto was supposedly discovered when he was throwing BP (only signing for 35k). Pardinho was/is EXTREMELY polished for his age and already has MLB velocity.
– Implicit biases and mental heuristics leading to less efficient outcomes.
Plus should we as fantasy managers be getting as excited about a fire balling foreign born player in the minors when we’re seeing clear proof that they’re not developing as well/quickly/etc as those with ties to amateur development in North America.
And why is this not the same for hitting prospects?
Where is the proof?
Confused how Gore, Patino, Cantillo, Morejon, Weathers, Omar Cruz, didn’t make this list but you have the KC Royals #2. You also omitted Joe Ryan from the TBR.
P.S. looking for downvotes
More time is being spent on the comment “white list” and skin tone rather than the matter at hand. I never intended it to be taken so literally and was using the term more to draw attention to an inefficiency that could be the result of any number of reasons or perhaps a collection. Foreign players can have white skin and North American players can have various colors of skin.
The key take away should be… there seems to be inefficiency and possibly inequality based on where a pitcher is born despite all the advancements in scouting/development and money thrown at this segment of player… why is this?
But there are a lot of Latin American mlb pitchers!
Jose Quintana, Julio Teheran, Aroldis Chapman, Roenis Elias, Raisel Iglesias, Sandy Alcantara, Victor Alcantara, Pedro Araujo, Pedro Baez, Sandy Baez, Dellin Betances, Santiago Casilla, Luis Castillo, Alex Colome, Bartolo, Johnny Cueto, Enyel De Los Santos, Seranthony Domínguez, Miguel Díaz, Jeurys Familia, Michael Feliz,
Jose Manuel Fernandez, Domingo Germán, Yimi Garcia, Kelvin Herrera, Jose Leclerc, Francisco Liriano, Reynaldo Lopez, Carlos Martinez, Adalberto Mejía, Frankie Montas, Hector Neris, Juan Nicasio, Ivan Nova, Alexi Ogando, Edward Paredes, David Paulino, Felix Pena, Freddy Peralta, Wandy Peralta, Wily Peralta, Luis Perdomo, Alex Reyes, Fernando Rodney, Jefry Rodriguez, Ervin Santana, Luis Severino, Jose Urena, Framber Valdez, Arodys Vizcaino, Luis Cessa, Yovani Gallardo, Giovanny Gallegos, Roberto Osuna, Oliver Perez, Sergio Romo, Fernando Salas, Joakim Soria, Julio Urias, Jonathan Loaisiga, JC Ramirez, Erasmo Ramirez, Javy Guerra, Jose Berrios, Alex Claudio, Ediwn Diaz, Joe Jimenez, Seth Lugo, Jose Alvarado, Jose Alvarez, Carlos Carrasco, Jhoulys Chacin, Yonny Chirinos, Elias Diaz, Junior Guerra, Felix Hernandez, Germanz Marquez,
Yusmeiro Petit, Eduardo Rodriguez, Bruce Rondon, Hector Rondon,
etc……..
So clearly MLB teams are not ignoring the talent from latin america.
So as an “exploitable inefficiency” i think the above list shows without a doubt, it isn’t an exploitable inefficiency. MLB teams are well aware of talented “non-white” pitchers and have been working to develop them for a long time.
Now with regards to prospect rankings, you’d have to check with the people doing prospect rankings. Conveniently, you work for one. You could attempt to find out what issues they take with non-americans or non-whites in their rankings, if you honestly believe that’s a thing. Though i don’t imagine they actually have any sort of white/non-white check-box in their data set either.
You missed the point… I’m discussing the next wave of talent coming to the majors and saying it looks like something may have changed… but also, many of the players you’ve listed (I only skimmed the list) are relievers or not very good… my point was towards the develop of top starting pitching talent.
i haven’t missed the point, you have! Again you’re arguing that due to the rankings you look at, you see fewer latin players listed and therefore think the MLB market is ignoring this market incorrectly which creates an inefficient market which could be exploited.
I’m asserting, through the huge list of MLB pitchers, that MLB keeps making new waves of latin american talent. I don’t think any MLB team is ignoring this which would therefore make it an exploitable inefficiency. I think there will continue to be waves of MLB level talent from Latin America and this is not being ignored by real teams. Good MLB starting pitching will continue to roll in from latin america regardless of the prospect rankings.
YOU appear to think that “next wave” isn’t coming because of prospect lists/prospect grades assigned in most cases not by MLB.
If you are right, then i guess no more latin american pitchers will play in MLB. And this will present a huge opportunity for teams to scout the area, which you appear to think they either aren’t, or are biased against it.
If i’m right, then the wave will continue to exist and the problem you’re identifying is in your current prospect lists. Of which, you can ask your own co-workers why they’ve got such bias in the lists.
Far be it from me to call any MLB level pitchers “BAD”, but hey, go for it.
I think there is a pretty good contingent of pitchers in there, who are starters.
Carrasco, Severino, Cueto, Luis Castillo, Berrios, German, Marquez, Quintana, Eduardo Rodriquez.
Paried with a bullpen of Chapman, Bettances, Colome, Diaz…
I think that’s a pretty good list of guys. Seems like maybe 10% of the list of players i’ve provided are top tier MLB starters. I wouldn’t think that’s an abnormal expectation, though i’m sure some statistical analysis could be done.
You say i missed the point because you’re talking about “next wave”. Did you do any research to make the assertion that “something may have changed”? It appears all you did was look at your current list and decided it’s “very white”. Did you review old prospect lists and see some significant changes where latin american pitchers used to be highly rated and now are not? If so, you don’t discuss it at all. Instead just making a half-assed point, clearly meant to incite outrage un-related to your actual post..
Also, appreciate that in your attempt to respond, you couldn’t be bothered to read a list of ~100 names. That would’ve taken you what, 30 seconds.
“I’m discussing the next wave of talent coming to the majors and saying it looks like something may have changed”
If you’re going to make provocative claims, actually do some work to support them.
Maybe what has changed is there is enough talent here in America, we don’t need to get people from other countries.
You probably shouldn’t have tried to virtue signal in a Rotographs article if you don’t want that to be the focus of the discussion. Probably more at home on the Hardball Times section of the site. Most people here aren’t interested in this kind of stuff.
Then you should have said the list is very American instead of very white. It’s 2019…you shouldn’t be surprised people objecting to you using American and white as synonyms.
I just don’t understand your logic here. You write this great data driven article about pitching and then you throw all the data out at the end and talk about the “witness” of the list. It’s your article! You threw all data out and boiled it down to the shade of their skin.
I’m not sure why it’s so hard for you to understand the blowback.
Why is the NBA top prospect list a bunch of black kids? Maybe we need a task force to find out.
Why would a fantasy player care which MLB teams have the best fantasy prospects?
This dude Hulet rolls in about five times a year to rehash prospects already thoroughly covered by McDongenhagen. That’s already curious. Then he tries his hand at race-baiting because….what else does he have to lose?
Uh oh looks like Marc stirred up a nest of trumpanzees.
When I first read the line about “a very white list” I wasn’t sure what it mean. I read more hoping it would explain what the phrase meant. Did not even consider it would be about skin color. Holy hell, who cares, they are names on a page.
And also, you know, actual human beings.