Ranking 2B By Fantasy Talent

In last week’s article on 2B, I discussed briefly a method I use for ranking players by talent. This week I will show the method along and the rankings. I loosely based this method on the the Mayberry Method introduced in the 2010 Baseball Forecaster. The Mayberry Method looks at the player’s talent and expected playing time to give them a fantasy value. I stripped the analysis down further to just look at the player’s talent.

Here is the method that is used. The original Mayberry Method looked at a hitter’s projected AVG, HR, SB and PA and ranked each player according to a formula. To get the player’s hitting ability, I stripped plate appearances from the equation because a player has no control over plattoons, batting order and talent around them. Also plate appearances directly effect the number of Runs and RBI’s the player will generate in a season.

Besides stripping out PA, I didn’t want HR and AVG to be given the same weight as SB. I feel that HR and AVG should be weighted more as each contributes directly to RBIs and Runs. So I weighted AVG and HR twice that of SB. Next, I converted HRs and SBs into rate stats, HR/PA and SB/PA.

Finally I took the 5 categories and plugged them into our own Zach Sander’s formula for finding fantasy above replacement values. For the values, I went with a Wisdom of the Crowds approach and used a weighted average of 4 different projection systems.

After following the above method, here are the pre-season rankings I came up with:

LASTNAME	FIRSTNAME	Average	Average	Home Runs	Home Runs	Stolen Bases	Total
Cano	Robinson	1.98	1.98	1.15	1.15	-0.77	5.48
Kinsler	Ian	0.64	0.64	0.97	0.97	1.26	4.49
Utley	Chase	0.75	0.75	1.32	1.32	0.11	4.26
Phillips	Brandon	0.48	0.48	0.87	0.87	0.93	3.62
Pedroia	Dustin	1.70	1.70	-0.13	-0.13	0.15	3.29
Raburn	Ryan	0.14	0.14	1.11	1.11	-0.27	2.24
Johnson	Kelly	0.36	0.36	0.77	0.77	-0.04	2.23
Wigginton	Ty	0.25	0.25	1.17	1.17	-0.91	1.93
Roberts	Brian	0.59	0.59	-0.58	-0.58	1.90	1.91
Prado	Martin	1.64	1.64	-0.44	-0.44	-0.75	1.67
Uggla	Dan	-0.47	-0.47	1.72	1.72	-0.90	1.60
Young, Jr	Eric	-0.03	-0.03	-0.91	-0.91	3.42	1.55
Hill	Aaron	-0.47	-0.47	1.56	1.56	-0.82	1.35
Weeks	Rickie	-0.58	-0.58	1.08	1.08	0.33	1.32
Aviles	Mike	0.92	0.92	-0.33	-0.33	0.02	1.20
Kendrick	Howie	0.75	0.75	-0.47	-0.47	0.15	0.72
Infante	Omar	1.31	1.31	-0.87	-0.87	-0.56	0.32
Beckham	Gordon	-0.03	-0.03	0.39	0.39	-0.41	0.32
Rodriguez	Sean	-1.42	-1.42	1.48	1.48	-0.13	-0.01
Polanco	Placido	1.03	1.03	-0.84	-0.84	-0.75	-0.37
Sanchez	Freddy	1.03	1.03	-0.79	-0.79	-0.94	-0.47
Uribe	Juan	-0.80	-0.80	0.90	0.90	-0.88	-0.69
Zobrist	Ben	-0.97	-0.97	0.40	0.40	0.46	-0.70
Walker	Neil	-0.47	-0.47	0.28	0.28	-0.34	-0.74
Espinosa	Danny	-1.86	-1.86	0.93	0.93	0.60	-1.26
Theriot	Ryan	0.48	0.48	-1.64	-1.64	0.96	-1.37
Lopez	Felipe	0.09	0.09	-0.84	-0.84	0.11	-1.40
Callaspo	Alberto	0.48	0.48	-0.81	-0.81	-0.89	-1.56
Schumaker	Skip	0.70	0.70	-1.15	-1.15	-0.66	-1.57
Keppinger	Jeff	0.59	0.59	-0.98	-0.98	-1.03	-1.83
Figgins	Chone	-0.58	-0.58	-1.65	-1.65	2.52	-1.94
Lowrie	Jed	-1.03	-1.03	0.21	0.21	-0.99	-2.62
Scutaro	Marco	-0.19	-0.19	-0.89	-0.89	-0.46	-2.63
Hall	Bill	-2.25	-2.25	1.02	1.02	-0.30	-2.78
Hudson	Orlando	-0.30	-0.30	-0.93	-0.93	-0.38	-2.85
Casilla	Alexi	-0.53	-0.53	-1.60	-1.60	1.22	-3.03
Hairston	Jerry	-1.42	-1.42	-0.33	-0.33	0.16	-3.33
Brignac	Reid	-1.47	-1.47	-0.15	-0.15	-0.56	-3.80
Ackley	Dustin	-1.03	-1.03	-0.98	-0.98	-0.54	-4.57

When compared to the list that we put out at the beginning of the year, here are a couple interesting tidbits.

– Using this method for ranking players, Aaron Hill and Dan Uggla are nearly the same player, all HR, no SB or AVG. Uggla is being drafted about 70 spots earlier in the drafts compared to Hill, mainly based on increased opportunites to drive in and score runs.
– Eric Young, Jr. looks to be a fairly productive fantasy player based mainly entirely on his SB, but may not be given a chance to start since his teammate Jose Lopez is entrenched at 2B.

This method by itself should not be used to fully evaluate players in fantasy baseball because it doesn’t take into account playing time. Increased playing time allows a player to accumulate more of the 4 counting stats normally used for hitters. It is though a good method to find talented players not playing everyday and if they are given the opportunity to shine, they could out produce other players.