Quick Winter Meetings Winners and Losers

So many things happened. Everyone was traded. Everyone was released. And everyone was signed. It’ll fuel RotoGraphs pieces for weeks to come. You’ll see more in-depth pieces on these guys. But, with the dust settled, it seems like a good time to run all through some of the players that changed addresses, and talk a little bit about how they may have changed their fantasy outlooks for the coming season.

Winners
Jon Lester (to Cubs)
Gotta like him in the National League. Gotta love him.

Brandon McCarthy (to Dodgers)
Ditto, but with a better lineup and lesser health.

Mat Latos (to Marlins)
Yes, his velocity suffered at the hands of injury last year, but Latos’ velocity was already in decline before those injuries. It’s what happens. That said, the potential for a healthy pitcher to arrest some of that decline still exists. His new home park should help, and if the Reds were to blow this up further as they might, Latos will be happy to have the Marlins lineup behind him, too.

Ervin Santana (to Twins)
Yes, he went to tougher league, but I think that park will help Santana at least massage some of the homer issues he’s had in the past. Threw his changeup more than ever, had his best swinging strike rate of his career, and could have deserved better last year than the results he got. Santana seems like a comfortable middle rotation guy in any fantasy league.

Yasmani Grandal (to Dodgers)
I already loved Yasmani Grandal for so many reasons. Now I just love him more.

Joe Wieland (to Dodgers)
Though the fastball isn’t great, Wieland has shown three decent non-fastball pitches, and one of them (the curve) has elite level upside. Even with below-average fastball velocity, and that injury history, he’s my front-runner for the Dodgers’ fifth starter role based on his balanced arsenal. Juan Nicasio screams reliever, and so does Carlos Frias. Zach Lee might need to try Triple-A all over again.

Eugenio Suarez (to Reds)
There’s some power and patience potential in this bat, and since his defense could be Zack Cozart’s equal, then it really looks nice for Suarez to take the starting role at some point in 2015. More of a deep league sleeper now, but that’s better than being stuck behind in Detroit with better competition at his position.

Kendrys Morales (to Royals)
Mostly because a team looks like they are giving him a position to run with. A multi-year commitment suggests he’ll get some leash. I’m not sure how much I buy into a big bounce back for Morales, though.

Delino Deshields Jr (to Rangers)
He strikes out too much and has some serious makeup issues, but now a team has to try and keep him on their major league roster for a year. His bat could have some power and patience upside, and his legs have stolen 100+ bases over the last two years combined. Deep leaguers should try to get a share, probably.

Josh Rutledge (to Angels)
Hey he looks he could start now, even when Troy Tulowitzki is healthy. He deserves a longer look before he really gets any seal of approval though. That game has flaws.

Marcus Semien (to Athletics)
Take the blurb above, remove Tulo’s name, rinse, repeat.

Treaded Water
Wade Miley (to Red Sox)
Yeah, he might win some more games, but he goes to the tougher league and doesn’t get much ballpark love for his troubles. I think throwing the slider and change more led to the strikeout boost, but I also think it led to more walks. The good news is that it looks like he has good natural command. The ground balls make him safe-ish. I think he’s still viable, may even improve his ERA, but isn’t going to be a fantasy one or two in Fenway.

Yoenis Cespedes (to Tigers)
He was in a hitter-friendly park for like a day. But at least his new park is better than his first park, and at least his new lineup is a good one. He may hit fifth, which lowers his plate appearance upside, but it also gives him good RBI upside. I’ll take the over on his current projected health, counting stats, and power production.

Rick Porcello (to Red Sox)
You might think he’d be a loser with the park switch, but Fenway actually suppresses lefty homers with that strange right field. It increases the heck out of doubles though (117 park factor for lefty doubles). And even though he made a huge step forward last year against lefties, with the continued use of the new curve, he still has a decent platoon split and career numbers that leave you cold. I think his ERA will be too close to four to be a shallow league option.

Losers
Matt Kemp (to Padres)
There’s no arrow pointing up for him with the switch from Los Angeles to San Diego. The park, the lineup, even the fact that the Padres have had some trouble keeping guys healthy — all of these things make a 31-year-old Padre Kemp seem less palatable than he did just a week ago. He’ll be a decent hitter but it’s hard to project him to even hit the same 25 homers he did last year.

Jeff Samardzija (to White Sox)
He *has* to give up more homers in The Cell, right?

Dan Haren (to Marlins)
Well, only if he retires, I guess. (I think he might.)

Alfredo Simon (to Tigers)
There are reasons to like Simon. Last year, his curve, cutter, split and sinker were all above-average pitches. None was elite, but his sinker averaged 94 mph. It’s a starters arsenal that was having great success in the bullpen, even as he was being used as a swingman. The bet here is that he’ll comfortably remain in the Tigers’ rotation all year. It’s just hard to put too much faith in him given his mediocre traditional peripherals — his strikeout, walk, and ground-ball ratios are all only meh. So, the move in ballpark offsets the move in league a bit, but it’s really just regression that might make a loser out of Simon in 2015.

Jimmy Rollins (to Dodgers)
The power is so up and down already, it’s just not going to be helped by the switch in home park. He’ll probably hit pretty far down in the lineup, too, so some of those counting stats will take a dive.

Andrew Heaney (to Angels)
Whatever you think of his upside — and the changeup actually has the shape of a decent changeup to me — it would have been nicer to see this play out in Miami than Anaheim.

Josh Fields (stays with Astros)
There were some reasons to like Fields as the Houston closer next year. Maybe those reasons are still there, but now there are a couple of good, funky pitchers next to him in Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. More of a crowd at least. Chad Qualls is still there, even.