Quick Winter Meetings Winners and Losers
So many things happened. Everyone was traded. Everyone was released. And everyone was signed. It’ll fuel RotoGraphs pieces for weeks to come. You’ll see more in-depth pieces on these guys. But, with the dust settled, it seems like a good time to run all through some of the players that changed addresses, and talk a little bit about how they may have changed their fantasy outlooks for the coming season.
Winners
Jon Lester (to Cubs)
Gotta like him in the National League. Gotta love him.
Brandon McCarthy (to Dodgers)
Ditto, but with a better lineup and lesser health.
Mat Latos (to Marlins)
Yes, his velocity suffered at the hands of injury last year, but Latos’ velocity was already in decline before those injuries. It’s what happens. That said, the potential for a healthy pitcher to arrest some of that decline still exists. His new home park should help, and if the Reds were to blow this up further as they might, Latos will be happy to have the Marlins lineup behind him, too.
Ervin Santana (to Twins)
Yes, he went to tougher league, but I think that park will help Santana at least massage some of the homer issues he’s had in the past. Threw his changeup more than ever, had his best swinging strike rate of his career, and could have deserved better last year than the results he got. Santana seems like a comfortable middle rotation guy in any fantasy league.
Yasmani Grandal (to Dodgers)
I already loved Yasmani Grandal for so many reasons. Now I just love him more.
Joe Wieland (to Dodgers)
Though the fastball isn’t great, Wieland has shown three decent non-fastball pitches, and one of them (the curve) has elite level upside. Even with below-average fastball velocity, and that injury history, he’s my front-runner for the Dodgers’ fifth starter role based on his balanced arsenal. Juan Nicasio screams reliever, and so does Carlos Frias. Zach Lee might need to try Triple-A all over again.
Eugenio Suarez (to Reds)
There’s some power and patience potential in this bat, and since his defense could be Zack Cozart’s equal, then it really looks nice for Suarez to take the starting role at some point in 2015. More of a deep league sleeper now, but that’s better than being stuck behind in Detroit with better competition at his position.
Kendrys Morales (to Royals)
Mostly because a team looks like they are giving him a position to run with. A multi-year commitment suggests he’ll get some leash. I’m not sure how much I buy into a big bounce back for Morales, though.
Delino Deshields Jr (to Rangers)
He strikes out too much and has some serious makeup issues, but now a team has to try and keep him on their major league roster for a year. His bat could have some power and patience upside, and his legs have stolen 100+ bases over the last two years combined. Deep leaguers should try to get a share, probably.
Josh Rutledge (to Angels)
Hey he looks he could start now, even when Troy Tulowitzki is healthy. He deserves a longer look before he really gets any seal of approval though. That game has flaws.
Marcus Semien (to Athletics)
Take the blurb above, remove Tulo’s name, rinse, repeat.
Treaded Water
Wade Miley (to Red Sox)
Yeah, he might win some more games, but he goes to the tougher league and doesn’t get much ballpark love for his troubles. I think throwing the slider and change more led to the strikeout boost, but I also think it led to more walks. The good news is that it looks like he has good natural command. The ground balls make him safe-ish. I think he’s still viable, may even improve his ERA, but isn’t going to be a fantasy one or two in Fenway.
Yoenis Cespedes (to Tigers)
He was in a hitter-friendly park for like a day. But at least his new park is better than his first park, and at least his new lineup is a good one. He may hit fifth, which lowers his plate appearance upside, but it also gives him good RBI upside. I’ll take the over on his current projected health, counting stats, and power production.
Rick Porcello (to Red Sox)
You might think he’d be a loser with the park switch, but Fenway actually suppresses lefty homers with that strange right field. It increases the heck out of doubles though (117 park factor for lefty doubles). And even though he made a huge step forward last year against lefties, with the continued use of the new curve, he still has a decent platoon split and career numbers that leave you cold. I think his ERA will be too close to four to be a shallow league option.
Losers
Matt Kemp (to Padres)
There’s no arrow pointing up for him with the switch from Los Angeles to San Diego. The park, the lineup, even the fact that the Padres have had some trouble keeping guys healthy — all of these things make a 31-year-old Padre Kemp seem less palatable than he did just a week ago. He’ll be a decent hitter but it’s hard to project him to even hit the same 25 homers he did last year.
Jeff Samardzija (to White Sox)
He *has* to give up more homers in The Cell, right?
Dan Haren (to Marlins)
Well, only if he retires, I guess. (I think he might.)
Alfredo Simon (to Tigers)
There are reasons to like Simon. Last year, his curve, cutter, split and sinker were all above-average pitches. None was elite, but his sinker averaged 94 mph. It’s a starters arsenal that was having great success in the bullpen, even as he was being used as a swingman. The bet here is that he’ll comfortably remain in the Tigers’ rotation all year. It’s just hard to put too much faith in him given his mediocre traditional peripherals — his strikeout, walk, and ground-ball ratios are all only meh. So, the move in ballpark offsets the move in league a bit, but it’s really just regression that might make a loser out of Simon in 2015.
Jimmy Rollins (to Dodgers)
The power is so up and down already, it’s just not going to be helped by the switch in home park. He’ll probably hit pretty far down in the lineup, too, so some of those counting stats will take a dive.
Andrew Heaney (to Angels)
Whatever you think of his upside — and the changeup actually has the shape of a decent changeup to me — it would have been nicer to see this play out in Miami than Anaheim.
Josh Fields (stays with Astros)
There were some reasons to like Fields as the Houston closer next year. Maybe those reasons are still there, but now there are a couple of good, funky pitchers next to him in Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. More of a crowd at least. Chad Qualls is still there, even.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Pretty happy the Twins landed Ervin. I think a 1-2 punch of Hughes-Santana gets them closer to the breakeven point. I have a friend thats a huge Royals fan and he was dissappointed they didnt land Santana. Do we think Big Game James is still on the radar for the Royals or does the Morales big money signing prohibit that??
I don’t know how much I believe Haren when he claims he’s gonna retire. It’s easy to say that, but when it comes down to it, who is really going to pass up $10 million in exchange for six months of work in Florida??
It is so hot and humid in Miami. I cannot imagine an MLB city where I would rather NOT play baseball (Houston maybe).
But I suppose I would deal with it for $10 million.
Agreed that it is super rare, although didn’t Dempster walk away from 12M?
Why don’t pitchers projections change when they move from the AL to the NL, or vice versa? Does Steamer not include league and park factor to formulate a projection?
Cruz? Tougher division and home parks … though based on handedness park factors not quite as much as I thought. Still…
Also, David Robertson has this really weird (and consistent) split: way more HR vs. RHH, so leaving NYY doesn’t really do anything there, esp. as CWS also gives up HR.
You forgot about Alex “Not Going to Get a Real Chance in Dodger Blue” Guerrero.
Yeah, that dude RAKED when he played last season. How do you take Howie Kendrick and give up a young pitcher? I just don’t get it.
Kendrick’s BB% surged last year, but for his career, his OBP is totally based on AVG as he’s not much for taking a walk. When I think of a Moneyball-type player that the new look Dodgers front office would go after, Kendrick just doesn’t seem to fit the bill.
Only thing I can think is that they’re factoring in the value of his defense, which I’m probably missing.
I can’t blame them for wanting an established known quantity in Howie Kendrick. You pretty much know what you are going to get. Whereas, Guerrero is still a pretty big question mark. He could be Robinson Cano lite (mainly in my dreams to be honest) or he could just as easily be a bad year Dan Uggla (in the very worst of my nightmares).
I just hope they trade Alex Guerrero at this point. The only possibility of playing time at the Major League level on the Dodgers’ roster is at second base if Kendrick gets hurt, as a pinch hitter (or a designated hitter in games played in American League ballparks), or at third base if the Dodgers have had enough of Uribe’s bat (but I am not sure if Guerrero has the arm strength to play there).
From a fantasy perspective, I cannot have a guy on my roster for two years without getting full playing time out of him for any of it. Additionally, regardless of upside, it is a HUGE blow to any non-prospect’s* value in my league that has fifteen other really good owners.
* I use the term “non-prospect” only because of his advanced age regardless of his Major League inexperience.
I don’t like Yasmani’s odds when he comes up against Beowulf…
Winner: Brandon Moss
Winner: Fransisco Liriano (probably landed in the best possible situation staying put)
mccarthy will be outstanding if he stays healthy. change in leagues, better park, much better defense.
Article would be much more informative if the old and new team were listed for each player.
Without that context, many of the snippets of info were basically useless
Not sure why you’re assuming Rollins will hit far down in the lineup. I would not be surprised to see him as the regular leadoff hitter.
“[Miley] isn’t going to be a fantasy one or two in Fenway.” or 3 or 4
Has Rollins officially been traded. If not what’s the story there.
Why is no one talking about a clear Dodger winner in Joc Pederson? This guy might be a top 30 OF as soon as next year.
because he doesn’t have a starting job yet, probably.
I’ve seen a ton of Grandal love lately. It’s everywhere. Why are the PEDs never mentioned? He’s headed to another big time pitcher’s park. Yeah, I believe he’ll be an ok mid-range catcher, but I’m not buying all the Yasmani hype out there.