Quick Looks: Wacha, Noesi, Holland

Note: I usually try to pick the most recent game the player pitched. Sometimes the MLB video has issues and other games are picked. Also, if a say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

 

Hector Noesi

Why I watched: Looks like he will make the White Sox rotation.

Game(s) Watched: 9/26/14 vs Royals

Game Thoughts

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• The 28-year-old righy’s fastball was between 90-95 mph with some glove side run and drop. It really straightens up has he increases the velocity.

• His 86-87 mph change was a really good with some glove side break and hard down movement. It got a 15.3% SwStr% on the season.

• His 12-6 curve was at 82 mph and was only a swing-and-miss pitch with no chance for called strikes.

• I sort of expected his 2015 season results to be better, but home runs (1.5 HR/9) has been his down fall. Also he walks too may hitters (2.9 K/9) for only having a 6.4 K/9.

Final thoughts: He needs to find a way to allow few home runs and walks. In this age of pitching, he just doesn’t do enough good things right now to be a consideration for a roster spot. If he shows some improvement in his stats, I would not be surprised though.

 

Michael Wacha

Why I watched: Coming back from mid-season shoulder injury.

Game(s) Watched: 9/26/14 vs Diamondbacks

Game Thoughts

• I wanted to see his last start of the season, but the broadcast was just about unwatchable since Arizona just hired Dave Stewart. I think I got more shots of the Arizona front office in their box than game footage.

• The 23-year-old righty was all over the place with his pitches. He lost control of each one at times and should have been more efficient.

• He seemed to struggle out the stretch, but it was not born out in is full season stats.

• His regular fastball was at 94-96 mph and “rises” some as seen by a 9.5% popup rate. The high popup rate teamed with a 10% SwStr% make the pitch good.

• He also threw a 89-91 cutter which broke down and to the glove side. I liked the downward movement and groundballs (53%) generated by this pitch.

• Historically his bread-and-butter pitch is the change (61% GB%, 16% SwStr%). It was horrible for a couple of innings, but he finally got it going. It was between 86 to 89 mph with some late sink. I wonder if it is a split-finger with its high velocity.

• Finally he threw a 76-77 mph 12-6 curve. Once he was able to command it, it was a nice fourth pitch.

• He can’t afford to take a couple of innings to warm up. Spring training will tell a lot with him.

Final thoughts: I was happy he was finally able to get his command down in the third inning to see a spark of what he might be. I want to see if he is able to get the ball over the plate regularly to start the 2015 season before investing too much in him.

 

Derek Holland

Why I watched: He came back to pitch a few games after a pre-season injury.

Game(s) Watched: 9/22/14 vs Astros

Game Thoughts

• It is nice to watch a polished pitcher. The 28-year-old lefty attacked hitters with the Kershaw trio of pitches, fastball, slider and curve.

• The 90-94 mph fastball was straight with possibly a bit of rise. Pitchf/x labels the pitch a sinker, but it has no sink as seen by a GB/FB ratio over one. He worked the pitch generally in two locations, on the inside and outside edge.

• His 81-83 mph slider had some slurve action to it with some 10-4 break. He seemed to be able to control the break amount on it.

• Finally, he threw a 73-76 mph curve which also broke in the 10-4 direction which he threw for a strike when needed.

• The slider (24%SwStr%) and curve (14% SwStr%) are both good swing-and-miss pitches.

• His strikeout rate is down for the season (17% vs 20%), but his SwStr% (10%) points to K% closer to 20%.

Final thoughts: I see couldn’t find a reason to not own him in 2015. All his pitches are there and he does a great job working a batter. If his price correct, don’t feel bad about picking him up.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Belle of the League
10 years ago

Own Wacha in a keeper league.
Would like to see your evaluation near the end of spring training