Quick Looks: Nola, Davies, and Lamb

I will use player grading on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will use Kiley McDaniels scale he discussed in this article.

Grade	Hitter	Starting Pitcher	Relief Pitcher	WAR
80	Top 1-2	#1 Starter	—-	7
75	Top 2-3	#1	—-	6
70	Top 5	#1/2	—-	5
65	All-Star	#2/3	—-	4
60	Plus	#3	High Closer	3
55	Above Avg	#3/4	Mid Closer	2.5
50	Avg Regular	#4	Low CL/High SU	2
45	Platoon/Util	#5	Low Setup	1.5
40	Bench	Swing/Spot SP	Middle RP	1
35	Emergency Call-Up	Emergency Call-Up	Emergency Call-Up	0
30	*Organizational	*Organizational	*Organizational	-1

I will give a value for where I think the pitcher could currently fit in on the average team (CV=current value) and where they could end up (FV=future value). I am sure I will disagree with some grades from others, but I am only looking at one game.

Note: If I say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

Aaron Nola (CV: 60/FV: 70)
8/23/15 vs Marlins

Game Thoughts

• The 22-year-old righty had a slightly funky delivery. He threw from a low 3/4 release across his body, which is a little unusual for a right-handed pitcher. Additionally, he had a little late leg lift which may be a little distracting for the hitter.
• With his fastball, he had pinpoint control and could have a strikeout rate higher than the one indicated by his swinging strike rate (K% = 2 * SwStr%). This trait has played out so far this season with his K% at 20.6% and his estimated K% at 16.8% (8.4% *2). He just lives on the edge of the strike zone.
• His fastball was at 90-93 mph with a small amount of release side run. He has a both a two seam and four seam fastball, but the difference in break between the two is tough to pick up. There is no swing-and-miss to the pitch.
• His curve is a beautiful pitch which comes in at 74-77 mph with a 1/7 break. He can throw it for strikes or to get whiffs. So far this season it has an 18.4% SwStr% which is way above average for a curveball.
• He also threw an 83-mph straight change. It was horrible. He had no idea where the pitch was going. He really needs to improve this pitch to take a step forward as a pitcher.

Final thoughts: As long as Nola stays healthy, he will be in the league for years to come as a middle of the rotation starter with his pin point fastball control and plus curve. If he wants to take a step forward, he needs to develop a third useful pitch. If he gets his change working as a swing-and-miss pitch, I could see him be a top 20 pitcher.

 

John Lamb (CV: 45+/FV: 55)
8/14/15 vs Dodgers

Game Thoughts
• The 25-year-old lefty threw from the 1B side of the rubber with a nice 3/4 release. He throws straight to home, so he may not end up with much of a handedness split.
• His fastball was between 89-93 mph. It was straight with some sink sometimes. There is nothing good about this pitch. He needs it for strikes and to set up his other pitches, but generally it just gets clobbered.
• His slider/cutter is a much better pitch. It gets labeled as both types and is at 86-88 mph with a nice 9-3 break. This season it has a 62% ground ball rate and 15% SwStr%.
• His slider/cutter is not even his best pitch, his change is elite with a 26% SwStr%. It is about impossible to pick up and has the motion of a hard curve. He owns right-handed hitters with it.
• Finally, he threw a 68-70 mph 10/4 curveball. This pitch was decent and gives him a nice third breaking ball for the third or fourth time through the lineup.
• His fastball control needs to be dead on for him to stay in a game. He has breaking pitches to tie up hitters once ahead in the count.

Final thoughts: He needs to find a way to improve that fastball or he could really struggle. Maybe he cold go with a two-seamer and at least get some more groundballs. The rest of the pieces are there to get hitters out.

 

Zachary Davies (CV: 55/FV: 60)
9/7/15 vs Marlins

Game Thoughts
• The 23-year-old righty is a groundball machine with all his pitches heading down. In the game I watched, 75% of the balls in play were groundballs.
• I will start out with his normally 87-90 mph fastball. I think he has two of them. Pitchf/x thinks it is three. He has a one which sinks with some glove side run and it generates a ton of groundballs. Also, he seems to throw a four-seamer which is straighter with some release-side break. The sinker will be a worm killer and will make him a heavy groundball guy.
• One interesting fact is his 8th innings where he ramped up his speed to 95 mph. I wonder if he was saving himself too much and had a little more in the tank. Keep an eye on him if he decides to speed things up earlier in a game.

• His change is nasty. It is between 77-79 mph with 12-6 sink which he uses for swings-and-misses (30% SwStr%).
• He had a serviceable 73 mph 1/7 loopy curve.
• Finally, he threw an 83-86 mph cutter/slider. It was horrible. He couldn’t throw it for strikes and it had no movement.
• He really didn’t generate strikeouts because he rarely reaches two-strike counts. Hitters were putting his sinking fastball into play.
• He could have a few games where he gets BABIP to death.

Final thoughts: Davies has a limited floor and ceiling with his heavy groundball tendencies. It would be nice if he could get a third pitch for a few more swings-and-misses. With a little refinement, he could maybe turn into a Dallas Keuchel clone.