Prospect Stock Watch: Glasnow, McMahon, Montas, O’Neill
It’s hard to believe the minor league regular season is less than two weeks away from winding down. The playoffs will be here before you know it, which means reviews of the 2015 season are just around the corner!
Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pirates: With Jameson Taillon on the sideline now for two full years (Tommy John surgery, hernia operation), Glasnow is the undisputed top pitching prospect in the system. Just 22, he opened the year in Double-A but has made his last five starts at the Triple-A level where his ERA sits below 1.00 and his strikeout rate is above 26%. Kiley rates Glasnow’s fastball as a present 65 grade (on the 20-80 scale) with a future grade of 70, while his curveball has 60 potential. With a changeup that also grades as better-than-average, this Pirates prospect has a big-time ceiling and might fit in nicely behind ace Gerrit Cole. He should be ready for The Show by mid-2016 at the latest and he should help shore up a rotation that isn’t overly deep especially with the potential loss of the perennially-retiring A.J. Burnett. [Value Up]
Ryan McMahon, 3B, Rockies: McMahon opened the year as one of my favorite “sleeper prospects” that not many people were talking about — but should have been. He’s still not getting the press he deserves but you can’t fault him; he’s produced his third straight season of .860 OPS or better. The 20-year-old third baseman hasn’t produced eye-popping power but you can see the potential there in his frame, swing and the numbers. He’s hit 16 home runs this season and 18 last year and he’s also been a doubles machine with 83 over the last two seasons. Now it’s time to look at a few things in McMahon’s “opportunities column.” Firstly, he’s played in some parks and leagues that favor hitters. Secondly, his BB-K rate is 46-135 in 117 games. Thirdly, his defence at the hot corner still needs a lot of work (30+ errors each of the last two years) which could eventually require a move to the corner outfield or first base. [Value Up]
Frank Montas, RHP, White Sox: The White Sox are in a pretty good place with their future starting rotation. Chris Sale is one of the Top 5 arms in the league while Carlos Rodon has shown flashes of brilliance. Even Jose Quintana is solid. Toss in Montas, who should be ready for The Show in 2016, and you have a formidable quartet capable of giving hitters nightmares. The 22-year-old hurler is still working to iron out kinks in his command but his 100+ mph fastball and near-90 mph slider are overpowering when he can locate them near the zone. Many saw as a future reliever in past seasons but his continued development as a starter provides increased hope that he can one day be an innings-eating monster. [Value Up]
Tyler O’Neill, OF, Mariners: You can’t ignore the eye-popping power display — 30 home runs in 93 games — but you have to wonder about the development decision to skip the teenaged prospect (now 20) over Low-A and assign him to High-A ball. This raw Canadian from a “cold weather area” is clearly all about power but his approach at the plate (including an aggressive approach and developing pitch recognition) seemed to scream “Take it slow!” The Mariners instead skipped him a level and placed him into a league that would not only accentuate his best tool but almost encourage the lack of development of the weaker areas of his offensive game. Ultimately, it’s there decision and the power display has been nice but you have to wonder how the future development will play out given his 24-119 BB-K rate in 362 at-bats. [Value Even]
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Tyler O’Neill – “Ultimately it’s *their* decision…”