Prospect Positional Reviews: Relievers

Just prior to last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I’ve already written about the catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, outfielders, right-handed starters and left-handed starters. Today we round out the series with a review of the relievers.

Actual Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Results
2.3 — Trevor May, Twins
2.1 — Carson Smith, Mariners
2.0 — Ken Giles, Phillies
1.8 — Alex Colome, Rays
1.5 — Keone Kela, Rangers
1.3 — Roberto Osuna, Blue Jays

Marc’s Top 3
Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays
Cam Bedrosian, Angels
Corey Knebel, Rangers

Collectively speaking, I didn’t expect rookie relievers to play a big role in the 2015 season but MLB managers have become more and more confident in handing the ball the hard-throwing youngsters in key situations.

Smith, 26, saved 13 games for the Mariners as a rookie, although he’ll likely open the ’16 season in a set-up role to newly-acquired veteran Joaquin Benoit. The first-year big leaguer missed bats (11.83 K/9), threw strikes (2.83 BB/9) and induced ground balls at a high rate (65%). He’s definitely someone to target in fantasy keeper leagues due to his swing-and-miss ability and the likelihood that he’ll collect at least a few saves.

Giles is another hard-thrower and, like Smith, acquired the closer’s role for part of the 2015 season. There’s been some talk that Philly is open to trading him while his value is high and he could become even more valuable if he lands with a playoff-caliber team. Giles, 25, can overpower big league hitters but his control is much more of a work in process — it’s actually been much better in The Show than it was in the minors (He walked more than six batters per nine innings as recently as 2013).

Kela, 22, is just as talented as the above two players — if not more so — but a deeper ‘pen in Texas means that save opportunities have been — and will continue to be — hard to come by, making him a little less valuable in fantasy ball. Still, he offers upside and a lot of Ks while not hurting his team (or fantasy manager) with a whack of walks.

A former top-dollar international signee by Toronto, Osuna was the youngest player in the Majors in 2015 at the age of 20. He also didn’t play above A-ball in 2014 and was coming off Tommy John surgery. Not only that, he was exclusively pitching out of the bullpen for the first time in his career. He doesn’t really get enough attention for what he did in 2015. This is a kid that saved 20 games and walked just 16 batters in 69.2 innings of work — for a team that came within a couple of wins from the World Series.

May led rookie relievers in WAR but that’s only when you consider his 16 starts too — so really, he’s an anomaly in the rookie class. Still, he was a valuable swing man (and long man) for the Twins — a club that is quickly turning itself into a dangerous playoff contender. Likewise, Colome quietly had a solid season in Tampa Bay after making the club more for the fact that he was out of options than for the fact he had a killer spring. If the Rays gut their bullpen this winter to save money, he could find himself in some better roles in 2016.

I expected Sanchez to have a bigger impact in 2015 for Toronto but he didn’t pitch well as a starter, and then got hurt for a bit. He came back as a reliever and was much better but he struggles to command his stuff (which has crazy movement). The starting-relieving teeter-totter could continue into ’16 with the organization still unsure of his permanent role.

Bedrosian has an inconsistent season trying to crack the Angels’ veteran team. Knebel split the year between the Rockies and the Brewers and could eventually move into a set-up or closer’s role but he’ll have to contend with Francisco Rodriguez and Will Smith for time in key situations in 2016.