Prospect Positional Review: First Basemen

On or around last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us and the heart of the postseason underway, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I started with the catchers earlier this week and today is a review of the first basemen.

Actual Isolated Slugging Results
.268 — Greg Bird, Yankees
.218 — Justin Bour, Marlins
.217 — Travis Shaw, Red Sox
.185 — Ben Paulsen, Rockies
.172 — Mark Canha, Athletics

Marc’s Top 4
1. D.J. Peterson, Mariners
2. Maikel Franco, Phillies*
3. Josh Bell, Pirates
4. Christian Walker, Orioles

Honorable Mentions
Greg Bird, Yankees
Travis Shaw, Red Sox

Looking at the Top 4… I whiffed badly, save for Franco and I’ll talk more about him in the run down of the third basemen. I will say this, though: His spotty defence in the minors suggested he would see time primarily at first base when he entered The Show but continued poor performances from Cody Asche kept the rookie at the hot corner in 2015.

As for the other three in the Top 4, none of them were able to force their way into significant playing time at the big league level. Walker was undone by a strong performance from Chris Davis, although the veteran will be a free agent this winter so the rookie’s time may come in 2016 — assuming he can hold down the fast-rising Trey Mancini.

Peterson just had a downright disappointing season in the minors for the Mariners, while Bell was given extra time in the minors to focus on his defence after moving to first base from the outfield.

My honorable mentions performed far better than the Top 4 and I don’t think many people saw Shaw playing much of a role in the big leagues in 2015. Boston will no doubt look to jettison Hanley Ramirez during the offseason but he could very well cut into the rookie’s playing time in ’16 if that doesn’t happen. Shaw, though, deserves a shot to hold onto the job after a strong freshman showing that saw him produce a respectable on-base percentage while showing solid power (13 homers in 65 games).

Bird helped compensate for the loss of veteran Mark Teixeira to injury, but the rookie also struck out at an alarming rate (almost 30% of the time) so he may need a little more seasoning in the minors in ’16 before he’s ready for long-term duty in the Bronx. Even so, the power and on-base skills are enticing. Image a line-up in a few years that features both Bird and Aaron Judge. Frightening.

The 2015 season was also the year of the over-aged, rookie first basemen. Bour (27 years old), Canha (26), and Paulsen (27) — not to mention Clint Robinson (30) and Jason Rogers (27) — all saw significant, and perhaps unprecedented, playing time with their respective clubs and their contributions are no doubt even more shocking than Shaw’s. Bour actually finished with tied (with two other players) for the 13th most home runs in all of Major League Baseball — a huge feat considering he’s a former 25th round draft pick and was picked up off waivers from the Cubs in late 2013. It will be interesting to see if his successes continue into 2016.