Preparing For An Ottoneu Auction

We’re entering draft season! FanGraphs Staff Two is busy preparing for our first day of drafting next Sunday. The goal is to finish in one afternoon, but we’ll have time for a second day if it’s needed. Ottoneu produces some lengthy auctions due to the deep player pool. I recommend you follow our example and target an early draft date.

Last season, Chad Young detailed his preparations for an ottoneu auction. He also has some advice for handling an unusually timid auction. Both articles remain relevant and useful today.

Strategy and Values

When I prepare for any auction, my first task is decide on my overarching strategy. Will I focus on finding value or target specific players? The composition of my keeper roster will inform my decision.

In a value-centric approach, we’ll use firm dollar figures (or ADP in a snake draft) to identify surplus value. We’ll need to trust our projections and calculations. This strategy is riskier in an auction. You could be left holding too much money if the values don’t show up until late in the draft. If you take this approach, be prepared to mix in a couple early targets just to ensure you acquire some top talent.

A target-driven approach relies on scouting and statistical analysis. You may recall my bullish ranking of Carlos Carrasco earlier in the offseason. I reached that ranking thanks to scouting and the results of Eno’s Arsenal Score. There are plenty of other players I like more than the crowd (or projection systems) based on things I’ve seen in-game and on their stat page.

I have some wonky ideas about the nature of dollar values, so I usually opt to target specific players. I’ll be straddling the two this season. I have nine open positions, five of which will go to targets. The other four will be used on value picks or prospects.

Since I don’t often use fixed dollar values, I usually settle for a publicly available price sheet. Chad published his values at the end of January. I advocate flexibility with dollar values. I’ll pay any price for a player, so long as it doesn’t negatively affect my ability to build a full roster. Obviously, that trade off can quickly come into play. If Mike Trout is going to cost you $75, it might be time to look at A.J. Pollock for $10 with another $65 to allocate elsewhere.

Roster Requirements

Once you have a plan for your valuations, it’s time to identify your strengths and weaknesses. The roster organizer page is a good place to start.

My roster is atypical. Most ottoneu owners don’t have $324 allocated to 31 players with only a couple obvious flaws. I have $76 left for nine players. My positional needs include third string catcher, starting middle infielder, two starting pitchers, and a reliever. I anticipate spending about $50 of my remaining budget on infielders and pitchers. The remaining $26 will be used to chase value. If nothing tickles my fancy, I can lay some money aside for when Yoan Moncada is added to the player pool.

Once you’ve identified your own unique needs, it’s time to create a plan to address them. Last year, Chad recommended a basic spreadsheet with target budgets by position. I use a similar tool. It’s important to track how your money is being spent. You’re much less likely to make a critical mistake. If you’re looking for more advanced tools, I recommend joining the ottoneu community on Slack.

Parting Thoughts

As you can tell, my approach to an ottoneu auction isn’t deep or mysterious. I decide if I’m going to prioritize value or targets, verify my needs, and borrow a trustworthy price sheet. A dual screen setup will help you to keep multiple tools open while the draft page remains front and center. Once you do the basic prep, draft day is simply an exercise in concentration.