Last Call: Predicting the Playoffs

As our regular readers, assuming optimistically that we have any, probably know, it was a disappointing Fantasy season for us. But are we discouraged? Not we! Rising on stepping stones of our dead selves to higher things, we have embraced the challenge (despite the punishing vig) of the NFBC Post-Season Contest.

Contest rules, predictions, and entries in a moment. But first, allow us to note that we’re a bit better at predicting outcomes at the team level than at the individual level. Thus, aside from the virtually-infallible Brett Talley, we alone among 55 Fangraphs writers predicted that Seattle would make it to the wildcard game. That’s right, spoilsport; they didn’t. But they came close. And, in the spirit of scientific inquiry, we now know the exact difference between having Lloyd McClendon as your manager and having someone else as your manager. (10 games.) We also envisioned that new manager Dave Roberts would assemble a bullpen that would enable the Dodgers to get from the fifth or sixth inning to Kenley Jansen, and we were right, although (except for Joe Blanton) we were wrong about the guys he’d assemble it with. And finally, our proudest accomplishment: we were four-for-four in our preseason over-under predictions, and the spiritual succor we derive almost offsets the fact that it did us no financial good whatever.

Back to the contest. It entails picking a lineup for the first round of the playoffs, resetting for the second round, and resetting again for the World Series. Rosters consist of ten hitters and six pitchers, with at least one guy and no more than three from each of the playoff teams in the first round. The big gimmick of the contest is the “Scoring Multiplier”: a player’s points total in a given week doubles if he’s on your roster the next week; his point total for the first round triples if he’s still around for the World Series. Since there’s a premium on picking players who make it to the succeeding rounds, you want to be right about which teams win. It also appears to us that the rules favor home runs unduly, and tilt slightly in the direction of starting pitchers and against closers (forget about non-closer relievers). And of course, to the extent it comports with what you actually think might happen, you want to be contrarian.

So here’s how we see the playoffs:

AL Wild Card, Orioles against Blue Jays. Chris Tillman won twice at Toronto this season, and though he let a lot of guys reach base and didn’t get out of the sixth inning either time, he’s got a bullpen that should give him a soft landing. Nonetheless, he’s just not that great a pitcher, and at least some of the Toronto hitters figure to tee off on him. Meanwhile, Marcus Stroman matches up acceptably against the swing-for-the-fences Orioles, especially since his home run-to-fly ball ratio suggests he’s been a bit unlucky in that department. Winner: Toronto.

NL Wild Card, Mets against Giants. We don’t care that the Giants are the Team of Destiny. And for all we know, Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner will pitch a double no-hitter. Both of them have had outings of Koufaxian untouchability against these particular opponents (and everyone else). Nonetheless, when the Mets win with hitting, they do it by virtue of left-handed power, which Bumgarner is very good at suppressing. The Giants, on the other hand, have the kind of slow-motion offense to which Syndergaard is—well, not vulnerable, exactly, but maybe likelier to succumb to before Bumgarner gives in to the Mets. Winner: San Francisco.

ALDS, Rangers against (we are positing) Blue Jays. Let’s leave aside the ridiculous testosterone-fueled feud between these two teams, who haven’t met since mid-May. It looks to us like, top to bottom, the Texas starting rotation is too erratic and too susceptible to Toronto’s right-handed power to win three of five games. Maybe the real Yu Darvish shows up and wins one game. We love Cole Hamels, but we don’t see why he wins against this lineup in either of these ballparks. Winner: Toronto.

ALDS, Red Sox against Indians. The thing about Boston’s hitting is, they really don’t have a weakness. They hit against lefties and righties; they hit against pitchers who keep the ball on the ground and pitchers who don’t; they hit fastballs and they hit junk; they get on base and they hit with power. A five-game series against the Indians’ A-rotation would have been interesting. But they should win all three games against Josh Tomlin and Trevor Bauer, and even Corey Kluber gives up more home runs than is comfortable. True, the Cleveland hitters are pretty good themselves. But they should have plenty of trouble with left-handers Eduardo Rodriguez and David Price, and while they will probably get to Rick Porcello early once, we doubt they’ll do it early enough twice to avoid Boston’s formidable bullpen. Winner: Boston.

NLDS, Cubs against Giants. It is very, very tempting to make the Giants our contrarian prediction, and if Bumgarner were going to make two starts against the Cubs, we certainly would. He’s not going to, but we still might. We envision the Cubs feasting on Matt Moore. But Bumgarner should win, and Johnny Cueto figures to split his two starts. So that leaves Jeff Samardzjia in Game 4, pitching in his home park, which neutralizes his vulnerability to the left-handed long ball. Still, Jon Lester figures to get two starts against a lineup that’s weak against lefties, and he, plus the left-handers in the Cubs’ bullpen (including Aroldis Chapman, of course), may give the Cubs the edge. Wish we knew the pitching matchups, but we have to go with what we’ve got. Winner: Chicago.

NLDS, Dodgers against Nationals. This is, to state the obvious, a very interesting matchup. The Nationals are depleted, with Bryce Harper clearly banged up and Wilson Ramos out altogether. Trea Turner is magnificent, but Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda are excellent at controlling the running game, so he may be somewhat hampered. Moreover, Clayton Kershaw is Clayton Kershaw, and perhaps a season of only 150 innings pitched makes him more himself for the playoffs than he’s usually been (although the missed regular-season starts in 2014 didn’t help in that season’s playoffs.) Plus, we’ve reluctantly become true believers in Rich Hill. He has trouble going past five innings, but that’s what the best bullpen in baseball is for.

Meanwhile, while it’s true that Max Scherzer is Max Scherzer, he’s pretty vulnerable to left-handed power, which is what the Dodgers use to score runs. On the other hand, while Gio Gonzalez has been pretty awful, we see no reason he won’t win Game 3, since the Dodgers just can’t hit lefties. And Tanner Roark, who’ll pitch Game 2 and, we figure, Game 6, is very good at shutting down left-handed power, and left-handed hitting in general.

Our best guess, and that’s all it is, is that the teams split the first two games, Gonzalez wins the third, Kershaw pitches on short rest in Game 4 and beats Joe Ross (who matches up badly with the Dodgers anyway), and then a rested Scherzer beats either Hill on short rest or…we’re not sure who. Julio Urias? Winner: Washington.

NLCS, Nationals against Cubs. The Cubs will destroy Gonzalez and Ross if they pitch against them. Scherzer, as we said, is vulnerable to left-handed power, as he proved against the Cubs in May, when he gave up two home runs to Ben Zobrist and one each to Anthony Rizzo and Tommy La Stella (!). Of course, he can also be completely unhittable, as he was against the Cubs in June. But it’s hard to see him winning even two games against the Cubs, and we don’t see anyone else winning more than one. Roark’s a terrific pitcher, but he’s vulnerable to the Cubs’ on-base guys (Dexter Fowler, Chris Coghlan), and while he’s good at keeping the ball in the park, Rizzo seems able to hit him (2 home runs in 15 AB), and Kris Bryant can hit anyone. Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks aren’t quite immortal, but they’ll certainly keep the Cubs in the game, and the bullpen should do the rest. Winner: Chicago

(We note, by the way, that we envision the same outcome if the Dodgers beat the Nationals and face the Cubs. Jon Lester [.188/.245/.286 against Dodger hitters] will win two games; probably three, if he absolutely has to.)

ALCS, Red Sox against Blue Jays. These are very similar, evenly-matched teams playing in somewhat similar ballparks. Toronto won the season series 10-9, but only because they pulled out two must-win games at the end of the season. Boston is much the deeper team, with an excellent bench and an impermeable back-to-front bullpen. If they were playing, say, 70 games against each other, we think Boston would win. But they’re only playing seven, and Toronto has the best front-line starting pitching and, arguably, the second-best closer in the AL. Boston’s rotation, on the other hand, is iffy once they get past Rick Porcello. David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez don’t match up especially well against the Blue Jays, and who knows which Clay Buchholz will show up? Meanwhile, J.A. Happ (3 Quality Starts against Boston this year) has apparently figured out how to neutralize the Red Sox hitters, Aaron Sanchez’s two starts against the Sox in Fenway were perhaps his two best in a great year, and Marco Estrada has figured out how to keep the ball in the park. Winner: Toronto

World Series, Cubs against Blue Jays. We don’t know. If we manage to get this far without succumbing to the possibility of cascading error, we’ll be pleased with ourselves, whoever wins the series. The Jays won’t have a DH for three games, and the Cubs will be able to plug in an extra (probably good) hitter for four. The Cubs’ starting pitching looks at least as strong as the Jays’, the Cubs’ bullpen is both deeper and better, and their hitting (as measured by Fangraphs wOBA and wRC+ is probably a bit stronger, though not much. So yes, the Cubs probably win. But were we in Vegas, or on a first-name basis with a reliable sports accountant, we’d certainly take Toronto at 14-1 before we’d take the Cubs at 7-4.

Here, 8 hours before game time, is our NFBC first-round lineup. We’ll undoubtedly tweak it before then, and will post the final version on Twitter. We’ll do the same for subsequent rounds if it still matters.

C: Buster Posey
1B: Anthony Rizzo
2B: Jason Kipnis
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera
3B: Kris Bryant
OF: Mark Trumbo
OF: Carlos Gomez
OF: Mookie Betts
OF: Jose Bautista
UT: Trea Turner
P: Jon Lester
P: J.A. Happ
P: Max Scherzer
P: Rick Porcello or Rich Hill (we haven’t decided yet)
P: Clayton Kershaw
P: Aroldis Chapman

That’s it for us until January. But, just like the Sultans of Swing, we’ll make it fast with one more thing. The last two words of our last post of 2015 were: Alex Colome. So once again we’ll leave you with an out-of-left-field closer for the season to come: Liam Hendriks.