Preaching Patience with R.A. Dickey
R.A. Dickey came into the season with more concerns than the typical reigning Cy Young. He did not have the long track record of elite success in the majors, and was moving to a more difficult league. Though age is not as important with knuckle-ball pitchers, there is always some reason for caution investing in a 38-year-old. Through two games, those worries have looked justified. At the same time, it’s foolish to overreact after 10.2 innings. While Dickey has struggled, things are not as bad as they seem.
One of the biggest reasons for Dickey’s success over the past three seasons has been improved control. Prior to joining the New York Mets, Dickey had a 3.6 BB/9. From 2010 to 2012, that dropped to just 2.2. The fact that he already has six walks in two starts is not encouraging. Command was a bit of an issue Sunday — more on that later — but there is some evidence Dickey was being squeezed in his first start of the season.
Using BrooksBaseball.net, we can isolate the results of his at-bats.
As the chart explains, the green squares represent at-bats that ended in a walk. At the bottom of the strike zone, there are three green squares, two of which are definitely in the zone. The third green box in just on the line of the strike zone, suggesting it was also a strike, though it’s not as egregious as the other two.
The chart also shows where Dickey has been vulnerable this year. Four of the five hits Dickey gave up that night were in the upper half of the zone. When he misses with the knuckleball up in the zone, or when it doesn’t knuckle, it becomes hittable.
This was evident in Sunday’s start against the Boston Red Sox.
The extra-base hits Dickey gave up were on balls left in the upper half of the zone. He was able to limit the damage when he kept the ball low, giving up one double and three singles. The double, and two of the singles, were hit by the first three batters of the games. All of them came off Dickey’s knuckleball.
Dickey must have been frustrated with the knuckler after giving up five straight hits to open the game, many of which were down in the zone. As a result, he started relying on his fastball more than usual. When your fastball averages 83 mph, this is typically a bad idea. Dickey needed to use it as he struggled to command the knuckleball. While he was able to throw the fastball for strikes, both of his home runs came off the pitch. A combination of early frustration and lack of control led him to throw more fastballs than usual.
Though Dickey struggled with control Sunday, he only gave up two walks. And since he was squeezed a bit during his first game, there’s no need to overreact to the free-passes just yet. Dickey has struggled to open the season, but he has also run into some unfortunate circumstances. The only reason Dickey’s sluggish start is bothersome is his unique path to becoming an elite starter. Forming your opinons about any player based on two games is foolish. Even with the added risks, Dickey deserves more time to figure things out.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
So, any other color blind people look helplessly at some of the graphs and charts at Fangraphs and despair, or just me?
Thank you Joe… been having the same problem. This graph is unreadable.
no it isn’t
The tiny green square is a walk. That’s bad. But the tiny cyan square is a groundout. That’s good! But the tiny periwinkle blue square is a lineout. That’s bad (process, good result). But the two kinds of tiny purple square are flyouts and pop outs. That’s good! But the slightly lighter shade of purple contains Potassium Benzoate.
… or it takes a little time for him to acclimate himself. Same thing happened to him in the start of one of his seasons with the Mets. Was it the cold, the way the balls were rubbed up, who knows. But once things warmed up he was back to normal. Chill people. If he’s still like this by the end of May, then panic.
From what I saw (especially in his first start), the lack of pitch framing was probably a part of that squeezing. JP could barely catch the ball that first start, let alone do a decent job framing the pitches. I recognize it probably isn’t easy to frame a knuckleball, but I didn’t watch enough of Dickey’s starts last year to know if Thole could do a better job.
I just don’t know why they bothered to trade for the guy and not actually use him to catch Dickey. Just feels like stupidity here… you can make all the big moves you want, but it’s the little details that can sink a season!
Blanco does have significant experience catching Dickey as well – 2010 w/ Mets. J.P. Arencibia though has appeared utterly inept at wrangling Dickey’s offerings thus far.
“One of the biggest reasons for Dickey’s success over the past three seasons has been improved control. “….
Or being in Shea and last year the NL East was down.
Yeah, I imagine he could pitch a wicked game in an empty Shea stadium while the real action was going on in Citi. For the record, Dickey did pitch one game in Shea… but it was in 2008 when he was with the Mariners.
You sound smart.
Yeah because he wasnt very good in 2010 and 2011 either I suppose the NL East was down then too. Hes got a three year track for record of high level production, this isnt a one year fluke and while he might not hit Cy Young numbers ever again (likely) hes going to be a very productive pitcher.
Knuckleballs knuckle better when it warms up. Now that spring is finally here Dickey will turn it around!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyK7o1VXscA
Exactly this. Both the last two seasons had the same thing. The move to Toronto will mean that it takes longer for Dickey to heat up, just as it does the weather. Come mid-May pounce.
The Blue Jays play indoors. Both of his starts have come under the dome.
Exactly. The dome plays at a constant-ish temp, no?
Also, didn’t he say this offseason how he plays better in a dome (probably confirmation bias–I think he just happened to kill tampa/toronto) but…maybe?
According to Dickey, Wakefield and other masters of the craft, a dome is the ideal environment for knucking.
Throwing the knuck is all about comfort level (and untold amounts of practice) so knowing that the conditions of the Rogers Centre will be consistent from start to start (unlike in an outdoor stadium) goes a long way.
There is no doubt having a catcher that knows how to catch a knuckleball makes a big difference. JP was terrible back there in RA’s first start……it fools the UMPs and it erodes RAs confidence.
The Jays need to pay attention who is catching RA and get into a routine.
They need to call up Thole as he is a known commodity in catching the knuckler, that offense should be good enough that the addition of a punching Judy like Thole one game out of 5 doesnt hurt its productivity. If he can catch Dickey and keep him comfortable then all the better.
in the first start it appeared that his knuckle was knuckling like crazy and he had trouble throwing strikes. when it was in the zone it was mesmerizing. yesterday, there werent very many pitches at all that had noticeable movement to them – they basically came in like batting practice fastballs – and thus he got smacked. on the slow motion replays it looked like they were spinning too much. like a bunch of other pitchers in the league right now, he just needs to find his consistency.
I watched quite a few Met games last year with Dickey pitching. The guy can DEAL. Last year was no fluke. I suspect that is he fails as a Blue Jay, it will be the fault of the Jays for not supplying Dickey with what he needs to be successful (a catcher who can catch the knuckleball ala Thole or Nickeas), rather than the fault of RA.
First of all, if Arencibia can’t catch a knuckleballer, he shouldn’t be catching RA. Ever. The value of a CY Young caliber pitcher outweighs the value of an above-average but not elite catcher. The Jays have to make every effort to make RA feel as comfortable as possible, and if that means calling up Thole, so be it. You never want a pitcher to sacrifice throwing what he wants to throw because of concern that the catcher won’t be able to catch it (3 passed balls by Arencibia).
Next, again watching RA last year, when RA is ON, it makes no difference WHERE the knuckler ends up (middle of the plate, or at a corner). This is because the knuckler works because of unpredictable MOVEMENT (not so much location), IMO. In other words, the knuckler could start out at a corner and at the last split second knuckle into the middle of the plate. When RA is on and throwing the knuckler in the 80’s this happens in a split second, and randomly, and batters can’t react to the movement.
I have the utmost faith in RA.
For Napoli’s HR, it looked like Dickey was trying a change-up grip. Did anyone else notice that? (I was watching the Jays’ broadcast, and Pat Tabler noticed it.)
I know he’s thrown a change-up once in a blue moon. In any case, it tumbled over and spun, creating a predictable lob for Napoli to unload on.