Prado Producing in Atlanta

Entering the 2009 season, Martin Prado wasn’t really in the immediate plans of the Atlanta Braves. The Venezuelan-born Prado made his living by subbing at any position where a need arose: second, third, first, outfield, shortstop…you name a spot, and Martin has manned it at some point.

His lumber, however, was considered fringy. Prado posted a career .300/.353/.393 line in the minors, which suggested that he could swat some singles but little else. But if one wished to be optimistic, there were signs that his overall numbers underestimated his offensive ability. As a 23 year-old at AAA Richmond in 2007, Prado produced a .316/.374/.420 triple-slash in 443 PA. A batting average-driven line to be sure, but Martin managed the strike zone well (8.6 BB%, 10.4 K%).

Prado followed up that strong year at Richmond with a .320/.377/.461 (.367 wOBA) season with the Braves in 2008. In 254 PA, he drew walks at an 8.4% clip and whiffed just 12.7%. His Isolated Power (.140) surpassed any figure he had posted in the minors. Prado didn’t venture out the zone very much (18.8 Outside Swing%; the MLB average hovers around 25 percent) and he made contact with 93.7 percent of pitches within the strike zone (87.7% MLB average).

In 2009, Martin was largely supposed to spot for Chipper Jones when the venerated switch-hitter needed a day or two off to mend. Instead, Prado has seen nearly equal amounts of time at first base, second base and the hot corner. The 25 year-old has mostly manned the keystone over the past month, as Kelly Johnson (wrist) hit the DL.

With a chance to play on a regular basis, Prado has compiled a .377 wOBA, with a .323/.384/.486 line in 248 PA. His rate of free passes drawn is up a bit (9.1 BB%), with a decrease in his already-low K rate (10.9 K%). Prado has put the bat on the ball even more frequently on pitches in the zone (95.8%, one of the 10-highest rates in the majors), and his ISO is up to .164.

Is Prado this good of a hitter? In all likelihood, he’s performing at the uppermost bounds of his capabilities right now. His BABIP has been in excess of .350 over the 2008-2009 seasons, which seems likely to regress at least somewhat. Using the Expected BABIP Calculator from The Hardball Times (discussed in more detail in this post on Placido Polanco), Prado “should” have posted a BABIP in the neighborhood of .325 over the ’08 and ’09 seasons. That would mean that Prado is more of a .300-type hitter than the .320+ cyborg we have seen as of late.

The rest-of-season ZiPS projections voice a similar opinion, calling for a .309/.365/.432 line from here until the end of the 2009 campaign. Prado has a strong grasp of the strike zone and produces scores of contact, making him a viable fantasy option. But, it would be wise to expect the sky-high average to dip to some extent, with fewer extra-base hits (.123 projected ISO for the rest of ’09).

Johnson is nearing a return to action, and it will be interesting to see how the Braves dish out playing time. From an offensive standpoint, Prado’s .350 rest-of season wOBA bests Johnson’s .340.

In three seasons at second, Johnson (a converted outfielder) has posted a -6.8 UZR/150, though he was on the positive side in ’09 prior to the injury. As a rover, Prado doesn’t have an especially large sample of innings at any position, though his early work at second looks Kent-esque. That could just be the product of working with limited data, though his minor league numbers aren’t really sterling, either. If he continues to be penciled into the lineup, Prado’s multi-position act deserves a look in NL-only and deeper mixed leagues.