Potential Playing Time Breakouts

I spend a lot of time looking at pitching in any given offseason. Doing the starting pitching guide every year makes me fully aware of the pitching pool from top to bottom. I don’t have a similar exercise for digging as deeply into hitters so one thing I like to do is take a look at the part-time players, level set them at 600 PA, and see what shakes out. Let me be clear: extrapolation is dangerous. There is a lot of noise in small samples as there just isn’t enough time for everything to stabilize.

The purpose of this exercise is to unearth some potential playing time breakout candidates. Sometimes opportunity is the only real thing fueling a player’s breakout. I don’t just pick from the top of every leaderboard and tab those as potential breakouts. First off, I use 200-400 PA as the threshold so this will include a lot of injury guys. I think Troy Tulowitzki is on it yearly. Obviously we know about those guys.

Same goes for rookies who made a brief impact. For example three of the top four home run guys on this year’s board are George Springer (35), Tulowitzki (34), and Brandon Belt (31). Well that isn’t telling us anything. We know all three of those guys are good and could be very dangerous with a full season of work. I’m not just looking for younger players on this list, though.

A more established veteran with some untapped potential and a bead on some newfound playing time will jump out to me when I’m looking through the results. Last year this exercise helped me learn more about Kole Calhoun, Khris Davis, Oswaldo Arcia, both Corey Dickerson and Charlie Blackmon, Yan Gomes, and Devin Mesoraco. You have to be extra careful with the catchers, though, as they rarely get 600 PA. A lot of backstops will show up on the list so you have to research to see who has some legitimate skills and who just had a nice hot streak within his 287 PA or something.

Before we get to who I’m gaining interest in based on the exercise, let’s dispense with some guys who show out well with the extrapolation, but have little chance of achieving the requisite playing time to pay off:

Sean Rodriguez (Age 30, 2B/UT, PIT) – Rodriguez extrapolated out to 28 HRs and 95 RBIs in 600 PA. Like I said, I don’t automatically get rid of older guys, but sometimes age is a factor. He has already been on two teams – including the one that could Ben Zobrist him better than any other team and he had a 91 wRC+ with them – and played in seven seasons and the bottom line is that he can’t hit righties. He has a career 69 wRC+ against them (112 against LHP) in 1042 PA. Additionally, he needed a 15.8 percent HR/FB rate last year to get his 12 HRs in 259 PA.

 

Mike Olt (26, 3B, CHC) – Olt extrapolated out to 28 HRs and 77 RBIs in 600 PA. The fact that he hit .160 in his 258 PA in addition to 12 HRs is reason enough to ignore him here, but he is also pretty severely blocked in Chicago. Franchise cornerstone Anthony Rizzo mans first base and heir apparent cornerstone Kris Bryant is going to be the third baseman very soon, possibly as soon as Opening Day. Plus, our depth charts have him being Tommy La Stella even if Bryant doesn’t win the job.

 

Jonathan Villar (24, SS, HOU) – Villar extrapolated out to 15 HRs and 35 SBs in 600 PA. When Villar made contact and got on base, he did damage. He just did those two acts so infrequently (.209 AVG, .267 OBP, 27.7% K) that it is hard to imagine him earning the necessary playing time. The Astros spoke volumes regarding what they think of Villar at this stage by bringing Jed Lowrie aboard for three years as essentially the bridge to Carlos Correa.

 

Now for the players I’m taking a deeper look at and possibly moving them up the draft board:

Travis Snider (27, OF, BAL) – Snider extrapolated out to 22 HRs in 600 PA. The 2006 first round pick hasn’t shown us much since a decent half season back in 2010. He had a bit of a renaissance with Pittsburgh, cutting his strikeout rate to a career-best 18.7 percent and popping 13 HRs in 359 PA. He benefitted from the struggles of Gregory Polanco, who hit .200 with a .568 OPS in his final 200 PA.

Now in Baltimore Snider has a wide open shot at a full-time job. He is penciled in as the Opening Day rightfielder and the only thing really in his way for 600 PA is Delmon Young taking PA against lefties. A big reason that Snider has faltered so much through his first seven seasons is missed time due to injuries. He stayed healthy for all of 2014 and another clean season of health should yield a career-high in playing time.

 

Arismendy Alcantara (23, 2B/OF, CHC) – Alcantara extrapolated out to 20 HRs and 16 SBs in 600 PA. Alcantara only had a 70 wRC+ in his 300 PA, but showed an alluring power-speed combination that has the fantasy community excited even without a full-time role just yet. However, there has been a lot of talk about Alcantara becoming manager Joe Maddon’s new Ben Zobrist which would not only get him the playing time to deliver some numbers, but it could also add some eligibility to AA.

He already qualifies at 2B and OF in all leagues, but he has played both SS and 3B in the minors, too. He might spot in enough at one of those to add that eligibility. Starlin Castro has SS on lockdown right now, but third base is definitely more open until we know the Opening Day status of Bryant. I’m not sure he can carve out 600 PA, but the Fans projection has him popping 14 HRs with 20 SBs in 526 PA. I love Alcantara in the middle infield slot of a fantasy roster this year in just about all formats. There might be too many other guys with guaranteed roles available in 10-teamers to justify rostering AA, but in 12+ he is perfectly viable.

 

Michael Choice (25, OF, TEX) – Choice extrapolated out to 19 HRs and 77 RBIs in 600 PA. That Choice even hit nine homers and drove in 36 runs is astonishing when you consider his 55 wRC+. In fact, that was the fourth-worst wRC+ among batters with at least 250 PA. Choice was a blue-chip prospect with Oakland, regularly ranking in top 100 prospect lists on his way up. I know top 100 lists aren’t the end-all, be-all, but something doesn’t jive with him having been so good coming up only to falter so spectacularly upon arrival.

I’m going to lean on his pedigree. I don’t think he’s as bad as the guy we saw last year. Choice showed power and had quality plate discipline throughout his minor league career so let’s not write him off just yet. Leftfield is wide open in Texas and I could see Choice emerging with a large portion of that role and turning it into some viable production.

 

These next two go hand-in-hand and honestly they might just be a platoon together, but if one of them got 600 PA to themselves, it could be something:

Yonder Alonso (27, 1B, SD) – Alonso extrapolated to 15 HRs and 13 SBs in 600 PA. That isn’t great power at first base, but with the speed potential, he would be pretty useful as a mixed CI or NL-only 1B if he could put up a 600 PA season. He hasn’t lived up to his prospect billing since being traded to San Diego, but let’s dispel with the notion that it is because of Petco. He has a posted a .757 OPS there in 626 PA. He has just a .683 OPS on the road as a Padre.

Additionally, health has eluded him. He has three DL stints in the last two seasons which have helped limit him to just 181 games played. Alonso has sputtered against lefties throughout his career, never eclipsing .700 OPS in any single season good for a .648 OPS in 349 PA. This could make getting 600 PA difficult, but at least he is on the strong side of the platoon if the Padres decide to go that route with Alonso and this next guy.

 

Tommy Medica (27, 1B/OF, SD) – Medica extrapolated out to 21 HRs and 14 SBs in 600 PA. Medica is a longshot here. A longshot among the longshots. He hit all the way up the minor league ladder, but he was always old for his level so it’s tough to give a lot of credence to his minor league numbers. The bit of speed came out of nowhere last year so even with 600 PA, I’d lean more on the power than the speed. He was 5-for-12 on the base paths in 1417 minor league PA so his 6-for-7 performance last year is pretty out of character.

I like Medica, but I’m just not sure he is much more than a lefty-killer. He had a 117 wRC+ against southpaws last year compared to an 87 vs. righties. It is impossible to collect 600 PA on the short side of the platoon and it is really tough to leverage a short side role into fantasy relevance so Medica needs the Padres to show some faith in him against righties to really explode. I’m keeping an eye on him, though. Alonso is a continued health risk and another injury for him might just open the door wide enough for Medica.

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League format will determine which of these guys you choose to gamble on, but there is something here for everyone. Alcantara and Snider are close to all-format options while Choice, Alonso, and Medica are late-round or low-dollar options in AL/NL only leagues.