Potential HR/FB Rate Surgers – 4/29/19

With about a month of the season in the books, it’s time to start calculating my various xMetrics. We’ll start by calculating hitter xHR/FB rate and comparing it to his actual mark. Today, I’ll look at hitters who have most underperformed their xHR/FB rates, suggesting significant upside over the rest of the season assuming they sustain such underlying skills. In an attempt to reduce really small sample size weirdness, only batters who have hit at least 20 fly balls will be listed and discussed.

Wow, I had no idea Jose Abreu was absolutely killing the ball. I doubt there’s suddenly another level coming and he hasn’t exactly started slowly, so good to see as an owner, but no actionable advice to be had.

It’s a bit of a head-scratcher for Freddie Freeman, as he’s barreling the heck out of his flies, yet his average fly ball distance sits just below the average. It’s always strange when that happens. He’s also hitting way too many balls the opposite way. It’s amazing to me that he has never posted a HR/FB rate over 20%. One of these years, he’s going to have a monster power year with a mid-20% mark I bet.

Man, Adalberto Mondesi has displayed the atrocious plate discipline we all expected, but it still hasn’t hurt his fantasy production. To think there’s more power upside here getting back to his level last season, maybe he’ll really post that 20/40 season his owners hoped for when they paid so much for him on draft day.

The big news for Avisail Garcia is that his fly ball rate has jumped for a third straight season to another career high. He has never eclipsed the 20-homer plateau for a variety of reasons, but one of the major ones is because his fly ball rate toiled in the mid-20% range. He’s striking out more than ever now, but the power appears to be the beneficiary.

Welp, looks like Josh Donaldson is healthy! While he homered yesterday and now sports a HR/FB rate over 20%, he has just five homers for two reasons — his strikeout rate has jumped for a third straight season to a career worst, while his fly ball rate has tumbled down to a career low. There’s no reason why someone with Donaldson’s power should be hitting grounders 50% of the time.

Oh boy, here we go again. The two Tigers who have bought a spot on all the underperformer lists, Miguel Cabrera and Nicholas Castellanos, have made sure to reserve their seat (and hey, a third Tiger wants to join in on the party, Jeimer Candelario, but he’s here simply because he hasn’t homered yet). I have no idea why Cabrera has decided that pulling his flies is a bad idea (though this is actually a continuation of last year), but at least his strong barrels rate suggests that he hasn’t truly lost all his power just yet. I guess if you’re an owner, ya gotta just hang on with fingers crossed. Castellanos’ numbers are where they typically are, so although we have gotten used to him dramatically underperforming his xHR/FB rate, he should still finish with at least double his current HR/FB mark.

GOOOOOOOO Ian Desmond (as an owner in a bunch of leagues)! He homered yesterday so the gap will have closed a bit, but the most encouraging sign for his power is that his fly ball rate is back above 30% for the first time since 2015. That’s huge, especially when calling Coors Field home. If I didn’t already own him everywhere, I’d be buying.

Byron Buxton also homered yesterday, and the real story here is that his fly ball rate has skyrocketed over 50%. That ranks sixth in baseball! It’s not the type of mark you would expect from a guy known for his speed. The good news is his strikeout rate has been dramatically improved, but will it last? His SwStk% is still just as elevated as always. It will continue to be difficult for him to be a strong mixed league asset while hitting at the bottom of the order.