Potential 2021 Starting Pitcher Walk Rate Surgers, A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed my comparison of starting pitcher spring training strikeout rates to Steamer projected strikeout rates and the list of pitchers with potential strikeout rate upside this past season. Now, let’s review the list of potential walk rate improvers based on the gap between spring walk rate and Steamer projected walk rate. Was Spring the first hint at an improved walk rate than expected? Let’s find out.

Seven for seven! That’s pretty surprising, as Spring walk rate isn’t as meaningful as Spring strikeout rate. In addition, the below is what I noted in my original writeup:

The caveat here is that because walks occur less frequently than strikeouts, walk rate fluctuates significantly more than strikeout rate over small samples. They obviously both fluctuate wildly, but the smaller walk numerator means larger gyrations.

But hey, at least for this group, their much better than expected Spring walk rates were clearly a harbinger of things to come.

Expectations couldn’t have been too high for Austin Gomber who was to spend his first year in Colorado and call its hitter friendly park home. But he managed to post the best skills of his short career, with a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than he had previously. I would be a lot more intrigued here if he was on any other team. Maybe we could ask the Cardinals to trade back for him.

It was a disappointing season for Kenta Maeda, whose year was cut short by injury that ultimately required TJ surgery. But, his walk rate was a bit better than projected and right in line with his career average. Given his age, he’s a complete tossup when he returns to the mound.

Tyler Anderson tied for the biggest gap between actual walk rate and Steamer projected, as he suddenly posted a career best mark, and significantly below his 2019-2020 marks. His walk rate improved even further once he arrived in Seattle, as it fell below 5%. Because he’s not very good at generating called strikes, his consistent double digit SwStk% marks haven’t resulted in above average strikeout rates. It’s hard to imagine that suddenly changing at age 32 next season, so he’s clearly just an innings eater with the potential to damage your ratios.

Logan Webb was the only pitcher to appear on both the strikeout rate surgers list and this one. That should have immediately set off bells and whistles as a breakout candidate. Obviously, we now know what happened, and a true skills-supported breakout occurred. Everything went right for him this season so you have to assume some skills regression next year. But since he was good at everything, he still should be quite a valuable pitcher even with a bit of decline across the board.

Steamer seemed a bit pessimistic on Marcus Stroman’s walk rate as that 8% projected mark would have tied for his worst. Why expect him to tie his career worst and post a mark significantly above his career average? Stroman actually ended up posting his lowest walk rate since a small sample 2015 season and below his career average. As expected, he posted a career best strikeout rate while in the NL for a full season for the first time. But it still surprises me that this career best mark is just 21.6%. I feel like he’s got one season in him with a mid-20% strikeout rate, but time is running out.

Ian Anderson has struggled with walks during his minor league career and we had just 32.1 MLB innings to work with when projecting his 2021 season. Steamer was up into the low teens, but he managed to post a mark just into single digits. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate tumbled due to a lower rate of called strikes, but excellent BABIP and LOB% fortune allowed him to post an ERA significantly better than his SIERA. I’m likely out at the price I figure he’ll command next year.

Walker Buehler has always displayed good control, with a career walk rate just over 6%. That walk rate spiked in 2020 and Steamer called for another walk rate at nearly the same level. Instead, Buehler rebounded, posting a walk rate essentially matching his career average. It was another typical year for Buehler, except he rode suppressed BABIP and HR/FB rate marks and a career best LOB% to a career low ERA, which was more than a full run below his SIERA. With down velocity this season to a career low, he’s not going to end up on any of my teams at his expected hefty price.