Postseason Hero to Overhyped 2026 Hitter?

Often times, a lesser known hitter makes a name for himself during the postseason over small sample heroics and is then subsequently hyped to oblivion the following season. As you might guess, these hitters sometimes end up overvalued and disappoint their new owners. Remember Randy Arozarena back in 2020?! In 86 PAs, he posted an absurd .515 wOBA, driven by a 52.6% HR/FB rate (not a typo) and .455 ISO, resulting in 10 home runs. He certainly did enjoy a very solid fantasy season in 2021, going exactly 20/20, but was that even enough to breakeven for his owners? I guess that depended on your leaguemates, but I would imagine there were many leagues where his cost became comical.

So now that the regular season is in the books and we change our focus to the playoffs, let’s perform a fun exercise by identifying a hitter from each team that could both surprise and benefit from more awareness in fantasy circles next year. Since I want to be realistic here, I’m not going to be naming reserves who only have a tiny chance to enjoy a big moment that would vault them into the spotlight.

Blue Jays – Alejandro Kirk

If you happened to purchase Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide this season and actually perused through all the Picks and Pans, you may remember that Kirk was one of my Picks this season. This is the blurb I included:

Statcast metrics suggest more power than shown last year and he has the strong contact skills to fully take advantage of increased power output. A rare catcher with potential to contribute in both home runs and batting average.

Holy guacamole, that’s literally what happened this year! After his two home runs yesterday (or today as I type this), he set a new career high with 15. He also continued to make fantastic contact with a single digit SwStk% and a strikeout rate barely into double digits. I would argue that his Statcast metrics suggest even further power gains, as his low pulled fly ball rate is still holding him back. If he ever decides to pull his flies more frequently, than 20+ homers are in the back. This version is still strong, but he’ll need a strong playoff push to become sexier.

Yankees – Ben Rice

Is this cheating? It’s hard to pick a Yankees hitter that’s “lesser known”, but I think Rice could post significantly better results than the already pretty strong results he posted this year. Those Statcast metrics are elite, and his strikeout rate finished below 20%! That’s a rare combination of contact ability and power. He just homered twice yesterday (maybe the theme here is to pick the two-homer guys during the last day of the season?), so maybe the momentum continues and he becomes a household name.

Red Sox – Nathaniel Lowe

Lowe is closer to the guy who needs the postseason heroics for his career than the guy who is likely to deliver it for the Red Sox. That’s because he’s easily coming off the worst offensive season of his career, and he’s going to need something to convince teams he’s still a worthy starting first baseman.

The thing is, he still makes excellent contact, with three straight single digit SwStk%, even though his strikeout rate jumped to a career high. He also posted a career best FB%, which is usually good for a power hitter, though not one that posted his second lowest HR/FB rate. His Barrel% has been weak for three straight season…what happened?! The seeds are there for a rebound, and Fenway Park sports the second highest left-handed park factor in baseball. Lowe absolutely needs a big postseason and his past suggests he’s certainly capable of delivering one.

Guardians – George Valera/C.J. Kayfus

Yes, I’m choosing two names here because Valera and Kayfus are rather similar. Both are not top prospects (though Valera used to be one), served on the strong side of platoons, walk at double digit clips, strike out at mid-20% rates, have posted high teen HR/FB rates, and recorded low-.200 range ISO marks. So, essentially the same type of fantasy contributor.

Kayfus was recalled earlier and got a bunch more PAs in, coming in as a nearly league average hitter, while Valera was better over a smaller sample size. Each have the potential to come up with a big home run, though it’s very possible they don’t even get an opportunity if the opposing team brings in a left-hander from the bullpen, and they end up getting pinch hit for. So perhaps any heroics will have to come earlier in games before the starter is knocked out.

Tigers – Parker Meadows

It’s finally breakout time, right?! I don’t think I even realized he’s been back and playing for most of September and between all his injury issues, has still managed to accumulate over 200 PAs. He’s now recorded about a full season’s worth of PAs over three actual seasons, and he’s hit 16 home runs with 21 seals, which is pretty good. Of course, that comes with just a .230 batting average and 57 RBIs, so it’s been a mixed bag.

His Statcast metrics are lacking, with a HardHit% of just 31.1% for two seasons running now and a Barrel% in freefall. But heck, he’s still just 25 years old, so let’s not forget he’s a former top prospect who will stay healthy one of these years and laugh at everyone who refused to ever draft him again. Perhaps he starts his reminder your during this year’s playoffs.

Mariners – Dominic Canzone

Gosh, it’s so easy to get overlooked in the Mariners lineup when your outside that top six and I’m fairly certain that’s exactly what has happened to Canzone. Did you know that not only does he own a .363 wOBA, but Statcast actually thinks he’s been unlucky, calculating a .385 xwOBA?!!?

He essentially traded fly balls for line drives this year, which spiked his BABIP, and amazingly didn’t hurt his power output. That power output has been magnificent, too, as his Statcast metrics have been divine, and dramatically better than his last two small samples. These are the Statcast metrics of a hitter who has no business toting a sub-.200 ISO.

Sure, he’s going to sit against lefties, but man, his damage against righties needs to be celebrated.

Phillies – Brandon Marsh

He is what he is, right? The former top prospect (once the 11th best in baseball) feels like a bit of a disappointment offensively with a career .326 wOBA, striking out a lot, hitting some homers, and stealing some bases. But this year, he suddenly cut his strikeout rate to the mid-20% range. It has never finished below 30.5% previously. That’s a massive improvement.

Unfortunately, it coincided with a drop in HR/FB rate, so his home run count didn’t end up benefiting from more balls in play. But with a stable HardHit% and maxEV, that seems flukey. At age 27 for the playoffs and heading into his age 28 season, there could easily be one big breakout in his future if he can maintain those strikeout rate gains.

Brewers – Andrew Vaughn

Y’all remember how good Vaughn was when he first came over to the Brewers, right? His season line with the team remains strong, but his last home run came on August 15. So most of his September performance was buoyed by a ridiculous .426 BABIP. Okay, so obviously Vaughn wasn’t truly as changed as it seemed when he was so hot initially, but he has more power than a homer every month and a half.

The thing is, the skills were still pretty solid with the White Sox, but the results were just never there. Yes, he needs to walk more and up that OBP. But he makes pretty good contact for a power hitter, though you could argue with that term. A .161 ISO suggests he isn’t a power hitter, but his Statcast metrics suggest his power output should be much greater.

After the early Brewers surge and subsequent August swoon, I’m guessing most fantasy owners forgot about him again. I wouldn’t. I liked him as a potential breakout with the White Sox, and now in a better situation in Milwaukee, I like him even more. A heroic October could vault him up sleeper lists in 2026.

Cubs – Matt Shaw

He was the first name I knew would be chosen when I decided on the theme of this article. Ranked as the team’s top prospect and 22nd overall heading into the season, he won the third base job during spring training, but didn’t last all year. A stint at Triple-A occurred in the middle of the year, but he was eventually recalled again to regain his old job.

It wasn’t exactly the performance fantasy owners hoped for, even though he did end up hitting 13 home runs and stealing 17 bases. Aside from a surprisingly low BABIP, the home run power was unimpressive. The Statcast metrics don’t really scream better right now, but he did post mid-to-high teen HR/FB rates everywhere in the minors, plus crushed it at Triple-A during his time back there this season.

He also swiped 31 bases in the minors in 2024, so the steals should be there, with the home runs essentially a bonus. He could make himself known in the playoffs as the next power/speed combo platter not to sleep on next year.

Reds – Ke’Bryan Hayes

Yes, Hayes might be the longest shot so far. The other names felt too easy. Here’s the thing, in going from the Pirates to the Reds, he went from the leagues’ worst right-handed home run park (by far, by the way) to the leagues’ second best. There’s literally only one better swing than that, and that’s if he went to the Dodgers.

Will it matter for a guy who sports just a 7.4% career HR/FB rate? It could! Contrary to his anemic power output throughout his career, he has consistently posted HardHit% marks of at least 42.5% with maxEV marks over 110 MPH (though he fell just short of that this season). His problem has been two-fold — a low Barrel%, and perhaps explaining why, some ridiculously low fly ball Pull% marks. He has posted two single digit fly ball Pull% marks, versus a league average in the 25%-30% range!

Since he’s not exactly a BABIP machine, I see no reason why the Reds shouldn’t tinker with Hayes’ swing. They have nothing to lose as the BABIP isn’t high enough to crash, and he doesn’t have any power to lose if the experiments fail. But Hayes clearly possesses more power than the 7.4% HR/FB rate and .114 career ISO suggest. He’s in the perfect park for that power to finally emerge.

Dodgers – Tommy Edman

Injuries have limited Edman to just 520 PAs over the last two seasons, so it’s easy to forget how valuable a fantasy contributor he has been while healthy. Even this year he hit 13 homers and stole three bases over just 377 PAs.

At this point, all fantasy owners want to see is a reminder of what he could do when he’s actually on the field. Make us think you can stay healthy a full season and we’ll pay up. Oh, and perhaps get back to stealing bases again, as three this year was quite disappointing.

Padres – Gavin Sheets

All it took was a departure from the White Sox and it led to the best offensive season of his short career. Perhaps that’s what Vaughn, discussed above, could look forward to. I think Sheets’ season could have looked even better though, and his .022 xwOBA underperformance validates the upside.

The Statcast metrics here look pretty good and definitely well above average, but the 11.9% HR/FB rate is underwhelming. I think he’s capable of more with simply better fortune. It’s not a matter of failing to hit for a high rate of pulled fly balls, as he has been doing that. So I actually wonder how he managed the middling HR/FB rate with such Statcast metrics. I think there’s clearly further power upside here and his postseason could potentially foreshadow that.