Arcia and Hicks – Deep League Waiver Wire
Oswaldo Arcia (1% Yahoo, 1.6% EPSN, 8% CBS) – the dude seems like he’s been around forever but he actually just turned 25 yesterday. After a disappointing 2015 in both Minnesota and Rochester, Arcia is swinging a hot bat, producing at the level Twins fans envisioned given the promising start to his career. So far, he’s cracked 4 homers in just over 70 plate appearances on his way to a shiny 135 wRC+.
It’s easy to look at some obvious data points and scream regression. His .382 BABIP and 40% HR/FB rates will assuredly normalize. And his career-high GB/FB ratio is, on its surface, alarming. Dig a little deeper and we find his ground ball rate has remained stable while his fly balls have simply turned into line drives. As for the quality of Arcia’s contact, he ranks 57th out of 287 in average FB/LD exit velocity among those with at least 30 balls-in-play.
Is this new batted ball profile sustainable? Who knows? But if you buy into the crazy narrative that greater selectivity at the plate can often lead to better contact, then perhaps some of it is. Arcia is chasing pitches outside of the zone a career low 28.5% of the time, about one point above the league, but an eight and a half point drop below his career average. He’s also cut down on his whiff rate while spending more time in favorable counts. This helps to explain his career best walk-rate, making him suddenly very interesting in OBP leagues.
We’d obviously like to see him hit more fly balls as the sustainability of his current power output, given his batted ball profile, is slim. Nevertheless, the plate discipline gains and improved contact are a boon to fantasy owners looking for outfield help.
Aaron Hicks (1% Yahoo, 1.3% ESPN, 6% CBS) – I was actually planning to write about Dae-Ho Lee but then I just saw Hicks hit another home run. So I figured that Lee will probably be available to write about for at least another week and it’s more helpful to, you know, focus on the guy who actually has a starting job.
And that guy, for the time being, would be the aforementioned Mr. Hicks. I’ve been riding the Hicks train for a while now. I touted him in a previous piece, picked him as an UDFA sleeper in our annual RotoGraphs Staff Picks, and rostered him in a few leagues, and not just those of the deep variety. Obviously, I’ve been disappointed.
Prior to A-Rod landing on the DL, Hicks hit .067/.125/.067 with a -58 wRC+. I know, it’s bad. But that came over just a handful of starts and piecemeal playing time. Now with A-Rod on the DL, Jacoby Ellsbury dealing with what appears to be a minor hip injury, and Carlos Beltran showing his age all in the context of a 11-18 start, Hicks appears to have a nice window of opportunity.
Remember, this is the same guy who combined double digit homers and steals last year with a plate discipline profile that placed him in some pretty lofty company.
| PA | HR | SB | K%-BB% | |
| Manny Machado | 713 | 35 | 20 | 5.8% |
| Anthony Rizzo | 701 | 31 | 17 | 3.9% |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 695 | 33 | 21 | 4.7% |
| A.J. Pollock | 673 | 20 | 39 | 5.3% |
| Jason Heyward | 610 | 13 | 23 | 5.6% |
| Jose Altuve | 689 | 15 | 38 | 4.9% |
| Brandon Phillips | 623 | 12 | 23 | 6.6% |
| Mookie Betts | 654 | 18 | 21 | 5.5% |
| Michael Brantley | 596 | 15 | 15 | -1.5% |
| Aaron Hicks | 390 | 11 | 13 | 8.20% |
The biggest knock on Hicks is admittedly a big one. He can’t hit righties. Or rather, he hasn’t yet shown the ability to hit them. Coming off the bench, we were never going to find out if he could but the playing time we anticipated looks like it’s finally arrived. Snatch him up in deep leagues because if he picks up where he left off last season, this power-speed threat won’t be available for long.
Rylan writes for Fangraphs and The Hardball Times. Look for his weekly Deep League Waiver Wire and The Chacon Zone columns this season.
I love the deep league wire articles … keep them coming!
Would love to hear more about Dae Ho
It’s as much about Lind as it is Lee. The short version, Lind is struggling vs. righties and could never hit lefties. His glove has never been an asset. With the M’s playing well, there’s less reason to show patience when they have a hot hitting alternative.
About Lee: I like his plate discipline, that he’s hitting lefties as he was supposed to, doesn’t appear to be a liability defensively (SSS caveats apply), BABIP shows room for improvement. Things to worry about: GB rate (big time), HR/FB regression (severe), 2 infield hits already (he’s 900 lbs). He’s more of an Uber Deep League Waiver Wire pickup.
Good call. Fortunately, I’ve already picked up both in my AL-only league. I was waiting for Hicks to show some sign of life (thanks to your advice and that of others on RG) and as soon as he did, I nabbed him. And didn’t he hit a HR against a RHP (Young) last night?
Arcia: I already had him in my AL-only league because you recommended him earlier. And in that league, players are cheaper to keep if they’re affiliated with your team, and my team is the Twins. Didn’t feel as though I’d need him in my 16 team league since an OF of J.D. Martinez, CarGo, Polanco, Dickerson (disappointing so far, but plenty of power) Rasmus and lately Dietrich is more than adequate. (These are keeper leagues, so they weren’t all acquired in the same season.)
Keep up the good work. And thanks for the advice.
I do have a question: I have three shortstops that can hit: Seager, Semien and now Aledmys Diaz. Should I start shopping Diaz (no way I’m giving up the first two in a keeper points league that values sluggers) now before his value drops? My pitching staff is fairly solid (Carlos Martinez, Smyly, Salazar, Conley and hopefully Gausman being my best starters) right now, but the next injury report could be bad news for me. And I’m afraid that Diaz’ fielding deficiencies could lead him to being benched if and when the bat cools.
The only problem is: we must maintain five prospects or rookie-eligible players on the prospect list at all times, and Diaz is my fifth right now. If I trade him, I lose depth on a shallow bench.
Thanks! That’s certainly a good problem to have and a tough one to solve.
I’m fairly high on Diaz like much of the RG staff and I’m not sure the bat will cool to the point that suggests you NEED to sell. That said you have a high ceiling, very low floor rotation. So I would look to deal for another pitcher. The problem with dealing Diaz given the bench constraints, is that you’d probably look to deal him for a rookie-eligible pitcher but simply adding another high risk hurler doesn’t address your pitching floor. And I think you could find a pitcher of that quality on the WW or close to it if you’re in a pinch.
I might float the idea of trading one of your stud SS for a safer bet pitcher to bolster that staff and if nobody bites look to deal Diaz for another lotto ticket.
And obviously, you could hold onto him. Semien and Seager are great but SS is a taxing position and both can be subject to long slumps. But I think the preferred option would be to use your SS depth to address your SP risk, particularly the floor.
Can someone explain this chart to me? It doesn’t seem to be sorted by any one variable.
I took this from a previous piece I wrote, part of which was about Hicks. By default it’s sorted Plate Appearances to show what he accomplished in an abbreviated season. It’s a list of the only players to have matched Hicks’ combination of HR, SB, and K-BB%.
For more context:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/yankees-playing-time-battles-hitters/
But after taking a closer look, it looks like some of the table properties didn’t transfer. By default it was supposed to be sorted by plate appearances. Thanks for catching – will fix later.