Posada, Hart, and Victorino: Pick Six Values

by
October 4, 2011

Erik Hahmann pointed out a couple of gems in Ottoneu playoff pick six for Tuesday and I’d like to grab the baton and run with a few more, because looking over the names available, there are some real interesting opportunities today.

Jorge Posada ($1.00)

The ragged old backstop has been pretty much guaranteed to appear as DH throughout the Division Series and tonight he’ll face Rick Porcello. Posada has eleven at bats against Porcello and he’s 3-9 with a double and two walks. That’s not much of a sample size, but on the season, Posada was really quite solid against right handed pitching, posting a .269/.348/.466 triple slash and managed to hit 14 home runs in 279 at bats.

Porcello struggles versus lefties, giving up 14 home runs in just a little over 100 innings pitched this season. Against lefties, his FIP is 4.51 and his xFIP is 4.16, in part due to a HR/FB of 12.1% and BABIP of .347 vs. lefties, but he’s pretty well earned most of it as his xBABIP sits at about .320. Fully 13 of the 18 home runs he’s given up this season have either had plenty of distance or classified as no doubters by ESPN Home Run Tracker, so it’s not like he’s giving up cheapies either. I look for Posada to square the ball up pretty well this evening.

Corey Hart ($0.50)

Hart hasn’t fared well vs. Josh Collmenter and is a stronger hitter versus left handed pitchers, but at four bits you’ll be hard pressed to find another player with 26 home runs and if he leads off again for Milwaukee, you’re almost guaranteed a fifth at bat. And who can turn down a free at bat? Collmenter, for as nice a season as he’s had, struggled down the stretch with a 4.44 ERA, 5.33 FIP, and 4.72 xFIP in September including a real stinker versus the San Diego Padres, not known in baseball circles to have what they deem “hitters”. His strikeouts were noticeably down and perhaps concomitantly, the home runs allowed were up. Hart, on the other hand, really surged in the second half with a .297/.361/.549 line, hitting 16 of his home runs over 67 games. With these two headed in different directions, sparks might just fly.

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Shane Victorino ($7.75)

Victorino isn’t as much as a bargain-basement buy as Posada and Hart, but there’s much to like about his match-up tonight should you find yourself with more wiggle room in your budget. On the season, Victorino is a .308/.424/.608 hitter versus left handed pitchers. Some quick math will tell you that’s good for a 1.032 OPS, putting him just behind the likes of Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, and Mike Stanton vs. LHP this season. Not bad company. And while Jaime Garcia isn’t your garden variety LHP, he has been far more human against right handed batters in his career (2.89 FIP vs. LHB; 3.61 FIP vs. RHB). For the price, Victorino is a pretty good play tonight.





 

Michael was born in Massachusetts and grew up in the Seattle area but had nothing to do with the Heathcliff Slocumb trade although Boston fans are welcome to thank him. You can find him on twitter at @michaelcbarr.

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