Poll 2025: Which Group of Hitters Performs Better?

Yesterday, I asked you to vote on which group of starting pitchers you expect to post a better ERA over the rest of the season. One group was composed of the 10 largest SIERA overperformers, while the other comprised the underperformers. Let’s now shift over to hitters by comparing wOBA to xwOBA and pitting the xwOBA overperformers against the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period.

We know that xwOBA isn’t perfect (for example, it fails to account for horizontal angle/direction, which certainly impacts results). Neither are SIERA, xERA, and the rest of the ERA estimators. In fact, no estimated/expected/forecasted equation is going to be perfect, because there will always be players that do something we have a difficult time quantifying. Furthermore, there will always be players each year that fall into either end of the extremes for no other reason than complete randomness (luck). So let’s keep that in mind when reviewing these two groups.

My initial population group consisted of 155 qualified hitters. Group A is composed of the 10 largest xwOBA overperformers, while Group B is composed of the 10 largest xwOBA underperformers.

First, let’s address the elephant in the room. For whatever reason, Statcast’s xwOBA equation doesn’t seem to be calibrated to this year’s league average. We find that the league as a whole has posted an actual wOBA of .313, but its xwOBA is meaningfully higher at .325. That means that xwOBA marks are inflated and explains why the wOBA-xwOBA gap for Group A isn’t as dramatic as in past seasons, while Group B’s gap is more significant.

As usual, it’s fun to see that Group A’s actual wOBA is below Group B’s xwOBA, though keep in mind the xwOBA inflation. Without it, Group A has performed just about as well as we should have expected Group B to perform. We could see from xBA that balls are finding holes for Group A, while Group B simply can’t buy a hit, with balls finding gloves at a far higher rate than we would expect. Similarly, Group A is recording extra-base hits at a higher rate than we would expect given their contact quality, while the power we expected from Group B just hasn’t manifested.

Let’s now dive into some of the names that are included in each of the groups, beginning with Group A. By far, the biggest xwOBA overperformer has been one of the year’s most pleasant surprises, Jacob Wilson. His preseason projected wOBA marks represented a huge range, between a low of just .298 to a high of .340. Most of the difference stemmed from his projected ISO, which has actually settled into the middle of the forecasted range. His xwOBA breakdown suggests he has been quite fortunate on both the BABIP and ISO side. That’s not obvious, though, when looking at some of the underlying metrics. The risk here is that if he has truly overperformed by a significant degree, he could quickly become replacement level in shallow mixed leagues given his below average power and speed.

Gee, it’s not an xwOBA overperformer list if it doesn’t include Jose Altuve’s name, right?! Before this year, he had overperformed his xwOBA in nine of 10 seasons!!! The only time he didn’t was during the short 2020 season, when he endured the worst offense season of his career. Of course, it was over just 210 PAs, so it’s very possible he would have rebounded given a full regular season’s worth of PAs. This is normal overperformance for Altuve, and he’s even doing it with a drop in BABIP. There’s nothing actionable here.

Well yeah, did we really think that there has been no good fortune involved in Cal Raleigh’s historic season? This is all about the power, as his xwOBA calculation clearly suggests that he doesn’t quite deserve a .375 ISO. What’s interesting is his HardHit% is barely higher than last year and ranks just 37th among 155 qualified hitters. However, his maxEV is up to a career high and solidly in the top tier, while his Barrel% has surged and ranks fifth. The Barrel% is key here as he has hit his balls optimally at a higher rate this year. Furthermore, his flyball Pull% has increased to a career high as well, and we know pulled flies go for home runs at significantly higher rate than those hit straightaway or to the opposite field. As mentioned above, xwOBA doesn’t account for horizontal angle, which is likely artificially suppressing Raleigh’s true mark. Still, you gotta assume some regression the rest of the way!

Speaking of flyball Pull%, Isaac Paredes has been the poster boy for overperforming his xwOBA because of that tendency. That hasn’t changed this year, as he has handily overperformed his xwOBA for a fourth straight season, corresponding to when his flyball Pull% jumped into the mid-40% range.

The most shocking thing about Hunter Goodman’s performance this year is that it has been driven by his road numbers, not Coors Field! He’s got just a .331 wOBA at his hitter haven home park, but a .389 mark away. That’s crazy! The BABIP clearly shouldn’t stay this high, but the power is definitely real.

Moving on to Group B, the underperformers, we find Juan Soto sitting pretty at the top, even after posting a .494 wOBA in June! He has actually underperformed his xwOBA each year since 2021, so perhaps he’s failing to do something good that xwOBA isn’t capturing. Opposite of Raleigh and Paredes, Soto pulls his flies at a below average clip and frequently goes the opposite way. That’s not great for his power, which might explain why he has underperformed his xSLG every season since 2019.

There’s Bryan Reynolds again, popping up every time I run this list! He hasn’t been a consistent underperformer and his xwOBA is right in line with past years. I continue to stubbornly hold and start him in my shallow mixed league as I fear the moment I bench him, or even drop him, he’ll go on a hot streak.

Jo Adell is already enjoying a breakout season with his .346 wOBA, but Statcast thinks this coming out party should be even bigger! It seemingly calculates a higher expected BABIP than his .264 mark, while also deserving of higher than a .240 ISO. He’s pumped up his HardHit% and his Barrel% has spiked, extending last year’s gains in both metrics. He has also reduced his strikeout rate, despite a stable SwStk%, so we’ll see if that lasts. It’s too bad he doesn’t steal bases anymore, but at least he’s delivering some shallow mixed league value. He remains poor defensively though, so an extended slump could cost him playing time.

Holy guacamole, what the heck happened to Michael Harris II?! Sure, he has underperformed, but even his .289 xwOBA is a massive disappointment. To make matters worse, he’s walking even less than he had (and he always had low walk rates to begin with), so he’s just rarely getting on base. The BABIP has crumbled, but a groundball tendency and few pop-ups mean that should rebound, at least somewhat. More concerning is the complete lack of power. His HardHit% has declined, which his Barrel% has plummeted to below league average. At least he’s still stealing bases and somehow has just four fewer runs batted in than last year in 102 fewer PAs. But man, it’s been a disaster of a season for a 24-year-old you would expect to be on the upswing in his career, or at least rebounding off last year’s down season. I have no idea what’s going on here, but he’s one of the many reasons why my LABR Mixed team stinks.

So which group performs better over the rest of the season? Let’s get to the poll questions. Feel free to share your poll answers and why you voted the way you did.