Poll 2024: Which Group of Hitters Performs Better?

Since 2013, I have polled you on which group of pitchers you think will post the better aggregate ERA post all-star break. In recent years, I added a hitter poll, pitting the xwOBA overperformers versus the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period, and asking you which group you expect to perform better over the remainder of the season. We know that xwOBA isn’t perfect. Neither are SIERA, xERA, and the rest of the ERA estimators. In fact, no estimated/expected/forecasted equation is going to be perfect, because there will always be players that do something we have a difficult time quantifying. Furthermore, there will always be players each year that fall into either end of the extremes for no other reason than complete randomness (luck). So let’s keep that in mind when reviewing these two groups.

My initial population group consisted of 141 qualified hitters. Group A is composed of the 10 largest xwOBA overperformers, while Group B is composed of the 10 largest xwOBA underperformers.

This is a great comparison between groups. Why? Because Group A’s (the overperformers) wOBA is just below Group B’s (the underperformers) xwOBA, while Group A’s xwOBA is just below Group B’s actual wOBA. So essentially, Group A should be performing like Group B actually has, while Group B should be performing like Group A actually has…at least according to the xwOBA equation.

What’s interesting to me is comparing the group aggregates to last year’s mid-season poll, offense is way down! Both groups’ wOBA and xwOBA marks are below last year’s aggregates, while league average wOBA has declined from .318 to .310.

Let’s now get into some of the hitters that made these top 10 lists. The Rangers’ Josh Smith has been one of this years’ biggest surprises. He didn’t even open the year as a regular, but Josh Jung’s wrist injury vaulted him into the starting lineup and he has taken full advantage. However, it all appears to be smoke and mirrors, as his xwOBA is actually just below his mark last year, when he posted just a .287 wOBA. He could thank his lucky stars for his .349 BABIP and a 12.5% HR/FB rate and .176 ISO, despite a weak 3.5% Barrel%. With Jung expected to return soon as his luck due to recede at some point, he’s a prime sell candidate.

Steven Kwan now has power?! Hmmmmmmmm. His maxEV is at a career low and it was never very good to begin with. His Barrel% is up, but remains just below 2%, which is poor. His HardHit% is also up, barely, but also remains weak. None of these trends justify a more than tripling of his HR/FB rate or surge in ISO, which xwOBA is picking up on. However, his fly ball pull rate has spiked, more than doubling from last year, and that definitely would result in more home run power, though I’m not sure he deserves this much of an increase. Also, is he really going to sustain that .364 BABIP? It’s odd that a career best .407 OBP hasn’t resulted in more steals, as he’s on pace for about half of last year.

There’s Isaac Paredes again who has carved a permanent position on this list! He’s become the Kyle Hendricks of hitters. He has overperformed his xwOBA by almost the exact same degree as last year, as he has continued his pulled fly ball ways, even upping his rate once again, as he has done every year in the league. Until xwOBA incorporates horizontal angle, it will always get him, and other heavy/weak pulled fly ball guys wrong.

It’s surprising to find José Ramírez’s name on this list as he isn’t a consistent overperformer. Last year, he actually marginally underperformed his xwOBA. The concern here is that his xwOBA is tied for his lowest since 2015. With a low .260 BABIP, it’s clear that the discrepancy isn’t BABIP-related, but power. Nothing looks out of the ordinary though as his 15% HR/FB rate has been done before, while his maxEV is elite and sits at a career high, while his HardHit% is at the second highest mark of his career, and Barrel% at the third highest. So it’s not obvious how he has overperformed, but if I were an owner or looking to trade for him, be aware he’s unlikely to keep up this home run pace over the rest of the season.

Jose Altuve has always confounded any xBABIP type equations, including those I have created in the past. As as a result, he has overperformed his xwOBA every single year of its existence, except during the short 2020 season. With a career high LD% and lowest IFFB% since 2020, he actually looks most deserving of an inflated BABIP than he ever has. Everything looks pretty normal here, so I’m not looking to sell and I wouldn’t suggest his owners do either.

With just a .296 wOBA, it’s shocking to find Ceddanne Rafaela’s name here. What I also found interesting is that for as strong a reputation he has for his defense, he has actually been terrible at shortstop this year, posting a -22.3 UZR/150. Do the Red Sox know this? Because they keep playing him at the position to alleviate their outfield logjam! His center field defense has been a positive, albeit not elite. On the offensive side, while he hasn’t been very good for the Red Sox, he’s been a very solid fantasy contributor, given his power, speed, and RBI luck. That said, Statcast isn’t buying his performance, though only his 17.8% IFFB% really jumps out as perhaps not justifying his .308 BABIP.

Moving on to the underperformers list, I would not have guessed that Christopher Morel would top it. I guess with just a .218 BABIP, it’s not that surprising. Then again, he doesn’t hit enough line drives and hits too many pop-ups, so you would expect a worse than league average mark, but probably not that low. Encouraging is his much improved strikeout rate. A solid trade target, particularly in OBP formats.

Gosh, I’m so glad I drafted Bo Bichette for the first time this year in LABR Mixed! He has to be one of the biggest busts so far this year. Even though Statcast thinks he has underperformed, even his .306 xwOBA is a far cry from expectations. What on Earth happened here?! His BABIP has collapsed, though his batted ball profile is completely normal. His power, on the other hand, is at issue. While his HardHit% and maxEV are down slightly, it’s his Barrel% that has been the real issue. That has been more than cut in half versus his last three seasons. Where did his power go?! I’ve held off on sending buy low offers just because the upside just isn’t that great, as he hasn’t really stood out in home runs or steals recently, even if his batting average does rebound.

The lucky stars just didn’t align this year with my LABR Mixed team, as I also drafted Fernando Tatis Jr., who was my first rounder, of course. To make matters worse, he hasn’t played for nearly a month due to injury. After a down power year last season, the question was whether he would rebound this year, and if so, by how much. So far, the answer has been that his power would not rebound. Have pitchers adjusted after massive power his first three seasons? But he’s still just 25, so it’s not too late for readjustments back! Literally everything else has been normal here, but it’s a good sign that Statcast thinks his power results should be significantly better. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, he had only swiped eight bases before landing on the IL, and it’s anyone’s guess how much running he’ll do after returning from a leg injury.

George Springer has picked it up over the last month, finally getting his wOBA up to .300. His power is still down, but not as significantly as before, but his BABIP still has a ways to go to fully rebound. At age 34, it’s always difficult to know when a veteran has entered the decline phase or whether poor performance was just a slump he’ll come out of. The trends don’t look great here, but I’m also looking at his overall season line and am not sure how much better the underlying skills have been over the past month. Even if I did, who’s to say the past month is a better representation of his current skill than earlier in the year, and not just a hot streak to offset the slump? I’m a Springer owner and just holding here hoping for the best.

It’s not often a rookie makes such a huge fantasy splash, but that’s exactly what Julio Rodríguez did back in 2022, and then followed up strongly last year. It hasn’t been quite the same this season though, as his power has disappeared (.104 ISO?!?!!?), while his other metrics have been in line. Looking at the trio of HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel%, you would never guess his power results have slipped so dramatically. I thought it may be his pitcher friendly home park, but his ISO on the road is barely higher than at home. He’s gotten hot in July so far, with three home runs already, matching his totals from each of the previous two months, while his ISO has shot above .300, after failing to even reach .100 in any previous month. I don’t see any clear red flags here and feel pretty confident that his power output will be as expected the rest of the way.

So which group performs better over the rest of the season? Let’s get to the poll questions. Feel free to share your poll answers and why you voted the way you did.