Poll 2023: Which Group of Hitters Performs Better?

Yesterday, I asked you to vote on which group of pitchers you expect to post a better ERA over the rest of the season. One group was composed of the 10 biggest SIERA overperformers, while the other comprised the underperformers. Now let’s poll you on hitters. I’ll follow the same concept and compare two groups of hitters based on xwOBA overperformance and underperformance. We know that xwOBA isn’t perfect. Neither is SIERA. In fact, no estimated/expected/forecasted equation is going to be perfect, because there will always be players that do something we have a difficult time quantifying. Furthermore, there will always be players each year that fall into either end of the extremes for no other reason than complete randomness. So let’s keep that in mind when reviewing these two groups.

My initial population group consisted of 150 qualified hitters. Group A is composed of the 10 largest xwOBA overperformers, while Group B is composed of the 10 largest xwOBA underperformers.

I love this group comparison because Group A’s actual wOBA is nearly a match for Group B’s xwOBA. How’d that happen? Well, Group A is deserving of a batting average that nearly matches Group B’s actual mark, while Group B’s batting average should fall a bit short of Group A’s actual mark. To make up the difference in Group A’s actual batting average versus Group B’s xBA, Group A’s xSLG is a bit below Group B’s actual SLG, while Group B’s xSLG is a notch higher than Group A. Got all that? Essentially, Group A has overperformed its batting average more than Group B has underperformed theirs, but overperformed its SLG less than B has underperformed theirs. So more of a batting average decline for Group A and less of a SLG drop, while B enjoys less of a batting average increase and more of a SLG bump, relative to each other.

Now let’s get into some specific hitters, beginning with the overperformers. The Rays offense has likely outperformed even the rosiest of projections and Isaac Paredes has been one of the team’s biggest surprises. Luckily for the team, he’s the only name among the top 10. The majority of his overperformance is driven by significantly better slugging results than Statcast believes he is deserving of. A 16.7% HR/FB rate is a near match to last year’s, but a maxEV of just 107.3 MPH and 5.8% Barrel% don’t exactly match up with that above league average mark. With a pretty neutral batting average and no speed, I don’t know what kind of trade value Paredes has, though he was just recently traded for Whit Merrifield in my local 12-team mixed league, as a classic power-for-speed swap. I would certainly shop him around if I was lucky enough to own him.

It would take some serious guts to trade away Corbin Carroll! Statcast calculates he’s overperforming his SLG by just over 100 points, which is pretty significant. It’s surprising given an elite maxEV of 113.8 MPH, though his 9% Barrel% is nothing special. A 20.2% HR/FB rate certainly seems reasonable, matching his small sample debut last year, and coming in lower than his minor league stints last year. He’s already swiped 26 bases already, getting caught just twice, so there’s little reason to think he’ll suddenly stop running. I can’t really imagine the kind of deal that makes sense to make if you’re an owner, even if his home run pace declines a bit the rest of the way.

Man, after an out-of-nowhere .395 wOBA last year, Joey Meneses is overperforming even after falling back to Earth with a .320 mark. I would think he’s better than this, especially the lowly 7.7% HR/FB rate, but the xwOBA doesn’t give me much hope of a significant rebound.

So turns out, maybe Luis Arraez has been quite a bit fortunate to be threatening the .400 plateau!

Now we’ll flip over to the underperformers. Once again, former top prospect catcher Keibert Ruiz is underperforming his xwOBA. I’m guessing his severe lack of speed has a lot to do with his poor BABIP. He ranks 409th out of 425 batters in time from home plate to 1B (HP to 1B). Statcast purports to account for running speed, but time and time again, I’ve found that it seemingly isn’t doing enough. Of course, that doesn’t explain his xSLG underperformance, and I think he should be getting that HR/FB rate into double digits at some point. With such a strong strikeout rate, there’s a whole lot of upside if and when things start to go right.

It’s pretty crazy to find Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s name listed second here. Throughout his short career so far, he has always posted wOBA marks nearly or actually perfectly matching his xwOBA. So this is a first for him to not only be so far from his xwOBA, but be so far on the downside. All his underlying metrics look completely normal, so he makes for an ideal trade target. It’s just hard to predict how the owner in your league is valuing him and whether that owner would be willing to sell at a discount compared to his draft day cost.

Yup, I’m still stubbornly starting Tim Anderson every week in my league, despite the fact he’s done nothing outside of his nine steals. It’s the first time I’ve ever owned him, so naturally this is the one year he has been terrible. As long as he continues to hit atop the order, I’ll keep starting him with my fingers crossed. Even his xwOBA stinks, so while he has been unlucky to be this bad, he has still been worse than he’s been since 2018. The upside of both power and speed, along with a helpful batting average, is too great to try to time a rebound. He’s a risky, but potentially highly rewarding, trade target.

The rest of the underperformers list is filled with big names. Could you believe that Ronald Acuna Jr., with his already elite .420 wOBA, is apparently underperforming?!

So which group performs better over the rest of the season? Let’s get to the poll questions. Feel free to share your poll answers and why you voted the way you did.