Poll 2016: Which Group of Pitchers Performs Better?
Since 2013, I have polled you dashingly attractive readers on which group of pitchers you think will post the better aggregate ERA post all-star break. The two groups were determined based on ERA-SIERA disparity, pitting the underperformers versus the overperformers during the pre-all-star break period.
If you’re curious, here are links to the historical polls and results:
2013 | Poll | Results
2014 | Poll | No Results, apparently forgot to post them, oops!
2015 | Poll | Results
I came up with this idea given my faith in using SIERA over smaller samples, rather than ERA, as I generally ignore ERA completely as late as the middle of the season and it’s interesting to learn how everyone else thinks. Will the SIERA outperformers continue to outperform, perhaps due to continued strong defensive support and/or more pitcher friendly ballparks, or will the magic vanish? And is it just bad luck that is due to reverse course for the SIERA underperformers or are they being hampered by one of the aforementioned factors that should continue to play a role the rest of the way?
My population group consisted of 96 qualified starters, which included some that are no longer in a rotation and/or are injured. I have decided to only include those who will remain a starter and whose return from the DL is not up in the air. Group A is composed of the 10 largest SIERA outperformers, while Group B is composed of the 10 largest SIERA underperformers.
| Name | IP | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | BABIP | LOB% | HR/FB | ERA | SIERA | ERA-SIERA |
| Steven Wright | 114 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 19.8% | 47.6% | 32.6% | 5.6% | 0.271 | 71.0% | 6.5% | 2.68 | 4.49 | -1.81 |
| Martin Perez | 107.2 | 11.3% | 10.0% | 20.5% | 53.8% | 25.6% | 2.2% | 0.276 | 73.8% | 12.2% | 3.85 | 5.35 | -1.50 |
| Jimmy Nelson | 107 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 20.1% | 48.1% | 31.8% | 11.9% | 0.278 | 77.0% | 11.9% | 3.62 | 5.04 | -1.42 |
| Doug Fister | 106.1 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 17.9% | 48.5% | 33.6% | 6.3% | 0.254 | 79.8% | 13.5% | 3.55 | 4.93 | -1.38 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 98.2 | 21.6% | 6.8% | 17.6% | 51.1% | 31.3% | 11.8% | 0.245 | 74.1% | 9.4% | 2.55 | 3.92 | -1.37 |
| Tyler Chatwood | 95.2 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 18.3% | 58.0% | 23.7% | 5.7% | 0.276 | 73.8% | 8.6% | 3.29 | 4.65 | -1.36 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 129.2 | 28.5% | 6.3% | 19.9% | 40.7% | 39.4% | 11.8% | 0.255 | 85.6% | 9.4% | 1.94 | 3.30 | -1.36 |
| Marco Estrada | 104.1 | 24.1% | 9.5% | 16.8% | 34.3% | 48.9% | 17.6% | 0.193 | 80.3% | 10.7% | 2.93 | 4.27 | -1.34 |
| Drew Pomeranz | 102 | 28.0% | 10.0% | 15.1% | 47.8% | 37.1% | 11.0% | 0.240 | 80.8% | 8.8% | 2.47 | 3.75 | -1.28 |
| Danny Salazar | 104.2 | 27.6% | 10.8% | 16.2% | 48.5% | 35.4% | 10.9% | 0.269 | 82.6% | 9.8% | 2.75 | 3.87 | -1.12 |
| Group Average | 107 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 18.3% | 47.7% | 34.0% | 9.4% | 0.256 | 78.0% | 10.1% | 2.94 | 4.34 | -1.40 |
| League Average (All Starters) | 20.2% | 7.8% | 20.8% | 45.1% | 34.0% | 9.4% | 0.299 | 71.9% | 13.4% | 4.36 | 4.32 | 0.04 |
**Colby Lewis actually ranked second, but was removed due to injury
| Name | IP | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | BABIP | LOB% | HR/FB | ERA | SIERA | ERA-SIERA |
| Michael Pineda | 95.1 | 27.2% | 6.3% | 22.9% | 43.9% | 33.2% | 3.3% | 0.349 | 66.7% | 16.7% | 5.38 | 3.38 | 2.00 |
| Drew Smyly | 100.1 | 25.2% | 6.3% | 19.8% | 33.2% | 47.0% | 15.0% | 0.313 | 63.2% | 15.0% | 5.47 | 3.78 | 1.69 |
| Chad Bettis | 102 | 17.1% | 5.5% | 22.8% | 51.6% | 25.5% | 4.7% | 0.344 | 63.7% | 15.1% | 5.65 | 4.13 | 1.52 |
| Aaron Nola | 96 | 25.5% | 5.5% | 21.0% | 55.1% | 23.9% | 4.6% | 0.331 | 60.5% | 15.4% | 4.69 | 3.20 | 1.49 |
| David Price | 124.1 | 27.1% | 5.2% | 25.0% | 43.8% | 31.3% | 5.7% | 0.321 | 70.9% | 15.2% | 4.34 | 3.27 | 1.07 |
| Jon Gray | 88.2 | 25.9% | 7.9% | 21.6% | 48.5% | 29.9% | 8.7% | 0.281 | 65.8% | 17.4% | 4.67 | 3.63 | 1.04 |
| Robbie Ray | 97.1 | 26.0% | 9.1% | 24.5% | 44.2% | 31.3% | 5.7% | 0.367 | 73.3% | 14.9% | 4.81 | 3.82 | 0.99 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 120 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 19.8% | 57.4% | 22.8% | 12.0% | 0.316 | 68.3% | 18.1% | 4.80 | 3.82 | 0.98 |
| Marcus Stroman | 116 | 16.9% | 6.7% | 20.1% | 59.9% | 20.1% | 2.7% | 0.306 | 65.0% | 14.9% | 4.89 | 3.93 | 0.96 |
| Ricky Nolasco | 108.2 | 18.4% | 4.8% | 18.3% | 43.0% | 38.7% | 6.7% | 0.330 | 62.8% | 11.1% | 5.22 | 4.27 | 0.95 |
| Group Average | 105 | 22.8% | 6.4% | 21.6% | 48.3% | 30.2% | 6.9% | 0.326 | 66.1% | 15.4% | 4.98 | 3.73 | 1.25 |
| League Average (All Starters) | 20.2% | 7.8% | 20.8% | 45.1% | 34.0% | 9.4% | 0.299 | 71.9% | 13.4% | 4.36 | 4.32 | 0.04 |
I would have liked to include additional metrics for comparison, namely Hard%, but there’s simply not enough room to display every relevant one.
It’s rather interesting that Group B has posted significantly better strikeout and walk rates, leading to a far lower aggregate SIERA. Group A, however, has limited the quality of contact allowed by suppressing line drive rate and inducing a higher rate of pop-ups. I would bet the latter group has also posted a higher Soft% and lower Hard%.
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
You’re going to currupt your own data by listing Group A first in the chart and then listing Group B first in the poll
Are you misreading? I see Group A always listed first!
Same, looks fine to me.
jB, once you vote, the poll shows you the results top down based upon which group received the most votes. So Group B might appear to be listed before Group A when you view the results, but it was after Group A when you voted. You comment was off-base, but not to a degree that you deserve hate and downvotes.
Thank you for the explanation. This morning before I voted, it showed Group B listed first, which could potentially lead to some hasty voting mistakes. Looks like it’s fixed