Polarizing Early ADP Debates: Third Base

CBS Sports’ Frank Stampfl called third base “deep with intrigue” this offseason. The edit I’d suggest is that third base has “a handful of deep picks that are intriguing.” We’re still early in draft season, with very few ADPs feeling set in stone, especially in the later rounds. This is true at every position certainly, but perhaps most so at third base. 

In the 13 Draft Champions league drafts completed so far on the NFBC, the ADP gaps between mid-to-late round third base options are large, to say the least.

Between the 10th and 25th players in third base ADP so far, 14 of them have gaps between their minimum and maximum picks of 50 picks. Eight have gaps of 90 picks or more.  

There are a ton of interesting names on this list, and we’ll have months to talk through them (hopefully not too many). 

In this article, I’ll focus on the four third basemen with min-max pick gaps of greater than 100 picks so far at the NFBC: Casey Schmitt, Teruaki Sato, Coby Mayo, and Ezequiel Duran. I’ll talk through the ceiling and floor cases before trying to pinpoint where the ADP may land. 

Casey Schmitt, Min Pick 123, Max Pick 270, Min-Max Gap  147

A second round pick back in 2020, Schmitt finally broke out in 2026, with a .271 AVG, 21 HR, and 9 steals in 409 PAs. He didn’t just do it at third base either. Schmitt will only have third base and outfield eligibility in NFBC leagues, but his 12 starts at first base and, more interestingly, 5 starts at second base, will get make him an interesting utility bat in Ottoneu and Yahoo leagues, and perhaps others depending on your league’s settings. 

Heading into his age 28 season, Steamer projections believe in the power for Schmitt, with 18 homers, but a .253/.302/.427 slash shows an expectation for batting average regression. Prior to 2026, Schmitt was a career .228 hitter who had never exceeded 350 plate appearances in a season at the MLB level. But when opportunity knocked, he answered, at least until tearing his left meniscus. 

Schmitt may not be a well known entity outside of fans of the NL West, playing for the lowly Giants and only really doing damage early in the year. But he absolutely did damage, as DeRo told you for MLB Network. Check out how confident he looked on this blasts.

Buster Posey and the Giants also seem unsure about his future with the club, or at least where his defensive home will be. 

After filling in for Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman, and Luis Arraez last season, between trades and injuries, Schmitt will likely stick in left field to begin 2027, with the recently-acquired Marcelo Mayer given a shot at winning the starting job at second base. 

Wherever he plays, Schmitt seems to have used his four partial seasons in the majors to unlock a plan at the plate to maximize his tools. 

In 2026, Schmitt finished with a .288 xBA and .512 xSLG thanks to a potent combination of strong underlying power and contact metrics. He ran an above average barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard hit rate with a top end pull air rate, to help him pop 21 home runs. And he carried strong whiff and squared up rates. He also never walks, making his high batting average matter even more, especially in season long roto formats.

And while he was much better at these skills in 2026, he has shown them throughout his major league tenure. Since debuting at 24 years old in 2023, Schmitt has consistently made contact on pitches in the heart of the zone, never dipping below 89%. He also finds a way to put balls in the Shadow Zone in play, never falling under 72%. Those are pitches dotting the edges or even just missing the corner. Pitchers’ pitches. And Schmitt is handling them. 

 

With contact skills like that, to go along with consistently strong pull air rates, Schmitt should maintain a competitive batting average and find ways to get on base and drive in runs, especially if the Giants keep him in the top half of the lineup with Jung Hoo Lee, Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, and Bryce Eldridge. And maybe Willy Adames? 

He should be taken closer to his min pick than his max pick, likely settling in around pick 150 as Spring Training rolls around and drafters are reminded of him. 

Teruaki Sato, Min Pick 172, Max Pick 289, Min-Max Gap 117

I’m not going to be able to say as much about Sato because he hasn’t faced MLB-level competition. That is a pretty reasonable explanation for the 117 pick gap in his ADP. 

At 28 years old, Sato is a happy medium between Kazuma Okamoto and Munetaka Murakami, the two NPB debutants from 2026. Sato is a bit more balanced than Murakami was and makes more contact, while still hitting 79 homers over his last two NPB seasons. He was less of a batting average standout than Okamoto though, which is interesting given Okamoto’s high power, low AVG profile in MLB. 

Sato though is of course his own man. A left-handed bat with consistent pull air and walk rates in the NPB, Sato’s performance could vary based on his landing spot, which is still very much up in the air. 

Yakyu Cosmopolitan (aka Yuri Karasawa), the frequent Effectively Wild guest and English-language expert on NPB, provides this Savant-style graphic contextualizing Sato’s 2026 production on his website. 

Karasawa also breaks down Sato’s strengths and weaknesses well in a video for JapanBall on YouTube, noting that even if he doesn’t stick at third base, he should be well equipped to handle either corner outfield spot with his speed and throwing arm, speed that could help him chip in 5-10 steals. 

Sato is bringing an average bat speed of above 75 mph and a max exit velocity of over 116 mph. That puts him in rare company when compared to major leaguers. Only 34 big leaguers met the 75 mph average bat speed threshold in 2026, and only 14 exceeded a 116 mph max EV. The company he could keep in this regard is comforting. 

Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Chart projections disagree on the playing time, but both put him on a 30 homer pace for 2027 with a sub-30% strikeout rate and .247 AVG. The projection does smooth over a 32% chase rate in NPB, well above both Murakami and Okamoto’s rates, which Karasawa worries could impact his walk rate and strikeout rate in MLB. Even if he gives up a bit of average and strikes out around 30% of the time, if he hits in the heart of the order in a decent lineup, he should be worth a pick well before pick 200, and likely should settle in as a top 15 option at the hot corner. 

Coby Mayo, Min Pick 196, Max Pick 316, Min-Max Gap 120

Condiment name or no, the post-hype top prospect plays for Baltimore and absolutely slams the ball when he makes contact. Need proof? Please refer to the Teruaki Sato Threshold table above. Or listen to this video. 

It’s by no means a guarantor of success though, to swing hard and hit the ball hard, as surprising as that may sound. You need to also make contact to actualize those two positive traits. And while Mayo did hit 24 bombs in 2026, he also ran a 30.4% strikeout rate. 

For Mayo to lather, rinse, and repeat would mean a particularly pungent outcome, as he finished at just $3.70, the 23rd third baseman, according to the FanGraphs Player Rater. 

If he can ketchup with fastballs though, and Lays off the sliders, Mayo should become less of a ham at the plate and more than capable of mustarding up a line similar to his Steamer projection: a 32-homer pace with a .237 average and sub-30% strikeout rate. 

Notice that I said 32-homer pace, and not projection. Steamer doesn’t see Mayo as playing more than 81 games with the Orioles in 2027. At his current price, I’m willing to bet that he does, but I could see why some managers may not be, especially in Draft and Hold formats where certainty is king. Mayo was worth -1 by both DRS and OAA in 2026, a rare consensus. Passable, if he can hit his weight, but not if better options exist in Birdland. 

And if Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday are both healthy for 2027, he may be competing for DH at bats with Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Tyler O’Neill. Right now, it’d be fair to consider him a platoon option for the O’s, given his dramatic splits. Yet, all of the options he could conceivably compete for ABs with are also right-handed bats. 

He’ll still only be 25 years old in 2027. The Orioles may decide he could use a bit more seasoning. Or they may roll with him. It’s worth noting that when they did give him runway in 2026, he continued to improve, especially late in the year, cutting his strikeout rate and increasing his wOBA. 

In early drafts, and especially Draft and Holds with limited roster spots, I’d push him down well past pick 200, closer to pick 250 and his max pick past 300. But if you’re not risk averse and are lacking power in your build, he is one of the few 30 homer bats with a serious chance to push for playing time at third base, especially after pick 200. He will be build-dependent, but could be a profitable option. 

Ezequiel Duran, Min Pick 182, Max Pick 286, Min-Max Gap 104

Duran is easily the player in this group I am least excited about in 2027. Position eligibility is fun for managers in deep leagues, and especially draft and hold formats, and Duran will be eligible everywhere but catcher and first base in Yahoo leagues next year. 

But don’t reach on Duran based on his 2026 output. He mostly hit in the bottom half of the order for the Rangers and has only reached 400 PAs twice in his young career. He should be considered a utility bat rather than a featured piece, just like how the Rangers think of him. So far, most drafters are thinking of him this way too. 

Like Mayo, Duran will be competing for playing time. While his utility ability allows him to weather some roster crunch challenges, rookie Sebastian Walcott’s expected arrival will probably eat into his playing time immediately.

But to give the upside case for Duran, he plays on a team with injury concerns across the infield. Jake Burger, Corey Seager, and Josh Jung all have checkered injury histories. And in the outfield, an aging Brandon Nimmo, an oft-injured Wyatt Langford, and a series of younger options will fill out the lineup on most nights. 

Between second base, filling in for injured players on the dirt, and potential poor performance and injuries in the outfield, Duran could cobble together another 500 plate appearances. And the two seasons when he’s stayed healthy himself and racked up playing time, he’s been a serviceable option. 

Debating the ceiling and the floor explains the 104 pick gap in his ADP. I think as a double digit homer and steal utility man in the late rounds, Duran is a fine option. His role may be more stable than similar options, like Javier Sanoja of the Marlins. 

Steamer projects him to exceed 500 plate appearances and to get to double digit homers and steals while hitting over .250. A shot at that finish makes him worth a pick right around 200, which is actually right up near his current minimum pick. Just go in knowing that there is serious variance in the profile rather than baking in his compiler counting stats into your final tally.