Pod vs Steamer — Stolen Base Downside

Last Thursday, I highlighted nine hitters my Pod Projections suggested enjoyed stolen base upside when compared to Steamer projections. Today, I’ll check in on the hitters who my forecasts hint at downside versus Steamer.

Overall, Steamer is much more aggressive projecting stolen bases than I am. The average PA/SB for the 342 hitters I have projected is 77.6 (remember that the lower this rate, the more steals), while Steamer is at 66.5. That’s a pretty big difference. Since I know you’re curious, I compared projections for all the players that played last year (325 players) with what they posted in 2017. Pod is projecting a PA/SB of 77.8, versus Steamer of 66.9, versus 69.6 last season. It does look like some aggressive regression in my projections, but there has got to be an aging adjustment and all these players are now a year older. The improved Steamer rate is a surprise, since they definitely including aging in their projections.

Now let’s discuss the fantasy relevant hitters projected for at least 10 steals by Steamer that my Pod projected PA/SB is significantly higher.

Wowzers, George Springer laps the field as we are very far off on his stolen base expectation. Steamer is a bit higher on his OBP, which is certainly a part of it. However, they are the most bullish as the only system projecting double digit steals. My issue is that his stolen base attempts have declined rapidly since 2015, he has been caught more than he has succeeded in each of the last two seasons, and that Astros offense figures to be fantastic once again, reducing the need to swipe a base.

Looks like Steamer is sitting in the first row on the Ronald Acuna hype train! Once again, a higher OBP projection is partly the reason here. Rookies are always a crapshoot to project and especially stolen bases. You never know who’s going to randomly decide not to run as often or run far more. So I like to remain conservative when we have no MLB record to consult.

Eddie Rosario is an easy explanation — I’m always hesitant to project a guy to steal double digit bases (like Steamer is doing here) when he was so unsuccessful the previous season. Rosario was just 9 for 17 in 2017, and hasn’t been great throughout his career. He’s hurting the team with his attempts so the risk is he either realizes this and runs less frequently, or the team simply gives him the red light.

Not only has Yasiel Puig never been a very good basestealer, but his willingness to run has been all over the place. Typically when a hitter enjoys a home run power surge, he will curtail his stolen base attempts. That didn’t happen with Puig, but given the risks already noted, it’s enough to make me more pessimistic.

Another meaningful difference in OBP projections, this time for Leonys Martin. Aside from aging (he’ll be entering his age 30 season now), I’m not sure how to explain the remaining discrepancy outside the OBP difference.

After settling into the mid-single digits in steals previously before notching his first double digit total in 2016, Andrelton Simmons suddenly decided to start running wild last season. He had never been a particularly good basestealer, but must have learned a thing or two and has improved his success rate considerably. He doesn’t have more than just average speed though, so I’m skeptical he’ll hold onto any of those gains.

Steamer is figuring that Ozzie Albies runs a little more frequently than he did during his 2017 debut in Atlanta. Of course, we also can’t expect him to succeed on 8 out of every 9 tries. And if he hits in front of Freddie Freeman all season, will he continue to run often or stay put to keep the hole between first and second for Freeman to pull his grounders through?

Aaron Hicks is only a 68% success rate basestealer throughout his career. The Yankees may hit a historically high number of homers, what’s the incentive to steal a base, when you risk running into an out?

Yes, Cody Bellinger has chipped in some steals during his minor league days, but he’s exactly the type of hitter who I expect to suddenly steal nothing. Middle of the order power hitters rarely also steal bases, both because they are too busy rounding the bases, and also because they don’t want to hurt themselves on a steal attempt. So I just can’t possibly project a repeat of his stolen base rate.